Paul A. Scherr

Use of brief cognitive tests to identify individuals in the community with clinically diagnosed Alzheimer's disease.

Two brief screening tests, the Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire (SPMSQ) and the East Boston Memory Test (EBMT), were included in a population questionnaire administered to 3,811 persons 65 years of age and older. A detailed clinical evaluation was then administered to 467 persons (drawn from high, medium and low performers on the EBMT) to determine who was cognitively impaired and the disorders that were responsible for that cognitive impairment. The results showed that the EBMT was better at enriching the population of the poor performance group with persons who had Alzheimers disease (AD). It had a lower refusal rate among non-proxy respondents: 2% for the EMBT versus 9% for the SPMSQ. The sensitivity and positive predictive value were also higher for the EBMT than the SPMSQ when the diagnosis of interest was AD. However, there were persons with AD in all strata of performance on both the EBMT and the SPMSQ, emphasizing the importance of selecting persons from all performance strata in multistage community studies of AD.

Smoking and Mortality among Older Men and Women in Three Communities

BACKGROUND Although cigarette smoking is the leading avoidable cause of premature death in middle age, some have claimed that no association is present among older persons. METHODS We prospectively examined the relation of cigarette-smoking habits with mortality from all causes, cardiovascular causes, and cancer among 7178 persons 65 years of age or older without a history of myocardial infarction, stroke, or cancer who lived in one of three communities: East Boston, Massachusetts; Iowa and Washington counties, Iowa; and New Haven, Connecticut. At the time of the initial interview, prevalence rates of smoking in the three communities ranged from 5.2 to 17.8 percent among women and from 14.2 to 25.8 percent among men. During five years of follow-up there were 1442 deaths, 729 due to cardiovascular disease and 316 due to cancer. RESULTS In both sexes, rates of total mortality among current smokers were twice what they were among participants who had never smoked. Relative risks, as adjusted for age and community, were 2.1 among the men (95 percent confidence interval, 1.7 to 2.7) and 1.8 among the women (95 percent confidence interval, 1.4 to 2.4). Current smokers had higher rates of cardiovascular mortality than those who had never smoked (as adjusted for age and community, the relative risk was 2.0 [95 percent confidence interval, 1.4 to 2.9] among the men and 1.6 [95 percent confidence interval, 1.1 to 2.3] among the women), as well as increased rates of cancer mortality (relative risk, 2.4 [95 percent confidence interval, 1.4 to 4.1] among the men and 2.4 [95 percent confidence interval, 1.4 to 3.9] among the women). In both sexes, former smokers had rates of cardiovascular mortality similar to those of the participants who had never smoked, regardless of age at cessation, whereas the rates for all cancers, as well as smoking-related cancers, remained elevated among men who had once smoked. CONCLUSIONS Our prospective findings indicate that the mortality hazards of smoking extend well into later life, and suggest that cessation will continue to improve life expectancy in older people.

Annual incidence of Alzheimer disease in the United States projected to the years 2000 through 2050

Alzheimer disease will affect increasing numbers of people as baby boomers (persons born between 1946 and 1964) age. This work reports projections of the incidence of Alzheimer disease(AD) that will occur among older Americans in the future. Education adjusted age-specific incidence rates of clinically diagnosed probable AD were obtained from stratified random samples of residents 65 years of age and older in a geographically defined community. These rates were applied to U.S. Census Bureau projections of the total U.S. population by age and sex to estimate the number of people newly affected each year. The annual number of incident cases is expected to more than double by the midpoint of the twenty-first century: from 377,000 (95% confidence interval = 159,000–595,000) in 1995 to 959,000 (95% confidence interval = 140,000–1,778,000) in 2050. The proportion of new onset casess who are age 85 or older will increase from 40% in 1995 to 62% in 2050 when the youngest of the baby boomers will attain that age. Without progress in preventing or delaying onset of Alzheimer disease, both the number of people with Alzheimer disease and the proportion of the total population affected will increase substantially.

Vitamin E and vitamin C supplement use and risk of incident Alzheimer disease.

Oxidative stress may play a role in neurologic disease. The present study examined the relation between use of vitamin E and vitamin C and incident Alzheimer disease in a prospective study of 633 persons 65 years and older. A stratified random sample was selected from a disease-free population. At baseline, all vitamin supplements taken in the previous 2 weeks were identified by direct inspection. After an average follow-up period of 4.3 years, 91 of the sample participants with vitamin information met accepted criteria for the clinical diagnosis of Alzheimer disease. None of the 27 vitamin E supplement users had Alzheimer disease compared with 3.9 predicted based on the crude observed incidence among nonusers (p = 0.04) and 2.5 predicted based on age, sex, years of education, and length of follow-up interval (p = 0.23). None of the 23 vitamin C supplement users had Alzheimer disease compared with 3.3 predicted based on the crude observed incidence among nonusers (p = 0.10) and 3.2 predicted adjusted for age, sex, education, and follow-up interval (p = 0.04). There was no relation between Alzheimer disease and use of multivitamins. These data suggest that use of the higher-dose vitamin E and vitamin C supplements may lower the risk of Alzheimer disease.

Established populations for epidemiologic studies of the elderly: Study design and methodology

A project initiated by the intramural Epidemiology, Demography and Biometry Program of the National Institute on Aging, entitled “Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly” (EPESE), has developed information on death, chronic conditions, disabilities, and institutionalization for representative samples of elderly people living in communities. The EPESE consists of prospective epidemiologic studies of approximately 14 000 persons 65 years of age and older in four different communities: East Boston, Massachusetts; two rural counties in Iowa; New Haven, Connecticut; and segments of five counties in the north-central Piedmont area of North Carolina. The study design includes an initial baseline household interview followed by continued surveillance of morbidity and mortality. Participants are re-contacted annually in conjunction with the collection of data on cause of death and factors related to hospitalization and nursing home admissions. Concurrently, the investigators developed substudies focused on specific problems of the elderly. The value of this research lies in the longitudinal design which allows for analyses aimed at identifying risk factors of diseases, disabilities, hospitalizations, institutionalization, and mortality. (Aging Clin. Exp. Res. 5: 27–37, 1993)

Level of education and change in cognitive function in a community population of older persons

In a community population of persons over the age of 65, cognitive function was assessed using brief performance tests on two occasions 3 years apart. Those with fewer years of formal education consistently had greater declines in cognitive function, independently of age, birthplace, language of interview, occupation, and income. These prospective findings suggest that low educational attainment or a correlate predicts cognitive decline. It is not clear, however, whether this relation represents a direct effect of education on future cognition, whether education might be related to occurrence of a disease leading to cognitive decline in older persons, or whether education might be a surrogate for some variable not included in the study.

Relation of cognitive activity to risk of developing Alzheimer disease

Background: Frequent cognitive activity in old age has been associated with reduced risk of Alzheimer disease (AD), but the basis of the association is uncertain. Methods: More than 700 old people underwent annual clinical evaluations for up to 5 years. At baseline, they rated current and past frequency of cognitive activity with the current activity measure administered annually thereafter. Those who died underwent a uniform postmortem examination of the brain. Amyloid burden, density of tangles, and presence of Lewy bodies were assessed in eight brain regions and the number of chronic cerebral infarctions was noted. Results: During follow-up, 90 people developed AD. More frequent participation in cognitive activity was associated with reduced incidence of AD (HR = 0.58; 95% CI: 0.44, 0.77); a cognitively inactive person (score = 2.2, 10th percentile) was 2.6 times more likely to develop AD than a cognitively active person (score = 4.0, 90th percentile). The association remained after controlling for past cognitive activity, lifespan socioeconomic status, current social and physical activity, and low baseline cognitive function. Frequent cognitive activity was also associated with reduced incidence of mild cognitive impairment and less rapid decline in cognitive function. Among 102 persons who died and had a brain autopsy, neither global nor regionally specific measures of neuropathology were related to level of cognitive activity before the study, at study onset, or during the course of the study. Conclusion: Level of cognitively stimulating activity in old age is related to risk of developing dementia. GLOSSARY: AD = Alzheimer disease; MCI = mild cognitive impairment.

Educational attainment and cognitive decline in old age

Background: Level of education is a well-established risk factor for Alzheimer disease but its relation to cognitive decline, the principal clinical manifestation of the disease, is uncertain. Methods: More than 6,000 older residents of a community on the south side of Chicago were interviewed at approximately 3-year intervals for up to 14 years. The interview included administration of four brief tests of cognitive function from which a previously established composite measure of global cognition was derived. We estimated the associations of education with baseline level of cognition and rate of cognitive change in a series of mixed-effects models. Results: In an initial analysis, higher level of education was related to higher level of cognition at baseline, but there was no linear association between education and rate of change in cognitive function. In a subsequent analysis with terms to allow for nonlinearity in education and its relation to cognitive decline, rate of cognitive decline at average or high levels of education was slightly increased during earlier years of follow-up but slightly decreased in later years in comparison to low levels of education. Findings were similar among black and white participants. Cognitive performance improved with repeated test administration, but there was no evidence that retest effects were related to education or attenuated education’s association with cognitive change. Conclusions: The results suggest that education is robustly associated with level of cognitive function but not with rate of cognitive decline and that the former association primarily accounts for education’s correlation with risk of dementia in old age.

Difficulty with Holding Urine Among Older Persons in a Geographically Defined Community: Prevalence and Correlates

OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to estimate the prevalence and correlates of difficulty holding urine among a population of community‐dwelling older people.

Contribution of Alzheimer disease to mortality in the United States

Objective: To assess the burden of mortality attributable to Alzheimer disease (AD) dementia in the United States. Methods: Data came from 2,566 persons aged 65 years and older (mean 78.1 years) without dementia at baseline from 2 cohort studies of aging with identical annual diagnostic assessments of dementia. Because both studies require organ donation, ascertainment of mortality was complete and dates of death accurate. Mortality hazard ratios (HRs) after incident AD dementia were estimated per 10-year age strata from proportional hazards models. Population attributable risk percentage was derived to estimate excess mortality after a diagnosis of AD dementia. The number of excess deaths attributable to AD dementia in the United States was then estimated. Results: Over an average of 8 years, 559 participants (21.8%) without dementia at baseline developed AD dementia and 1,090 (42.4%) died. Median time from AD dementia diagnosis to death was 3.8 years. The mortality HR for AD dementia was 4.30 (confidence interval = 3.33, 5.58) for ages 75–84 years and 2.77 (confidence interval = 2.37, 3.23) for ages 85 years and older (too few deaths after AD dementia in ages 65–74 were available to estimate HR). Population attributable risk percentage was 37.0% for ages 75–84 and 35.8% for ages 85 and older. An estimated 503,400 deaths in Americans aged 75 years and older were attributable to AD dementia in 2010. Conclusions: A larger number of deaths are attributable to AD dementia in the United States each year than the number (<84,000 in 2010) reported on death certificates.