Paul D. Sampson

Incidence of fetal alcohol syndrome and prevalence of alcohol-related neurodevelopmental disorder.

We critique published incidences for fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS) and present new estimates of the incidence of FAS and the prevalence of alcohol-related neurodevelopmental disorder (ARND). We first review criteria necessary for valid estimation of FAS incidence. Estimates for three population-based studies that best meet these criteria are reported with adjustment for underascertainment of highly exposed cases. As a result, in 1975 in Seattle, the incidence of FAS can be estimated as at least 2.8/1000 live births, and for 1979-81 in Cleveland, approximately 4.6/1,000. In Roubaix, France (for data covering periods from 1977-1990), the rate is between 1.3 and 4.8/1,000, depending on the severity of effects used as diagnostic criteria. Utilizing the longitudinal neurobehavioral database of the Seattle study, we propose an operationalization of the Institute of Medicines recent definition of ARND and estimate its prevalence in Seattle for the period 1975-1981. The combined rate of FAS and ARND is thus estimated to be at least 9.1/1,000. This conservative rate--nearly one in every 100 live births--confirms the perception of many health professionals that fetal alcohol exposure is a serious problem.

Risk factors for adverse life outcomes in fetal alcohol syndrome and fetal alcohol effects.

ABSTRACT. Clinical descriptions of patients with Fetal Alcohol Syndrome (FAS) and Fetal Alcohol Effects (FAE) suggest major problems with adaptive behavior. Five operationally defined adverse outcomes and 18 associated risk/protective factors were examined using a Life History Interview with knowledgeable informants of 415 patients with FAS or FAE (median age 14 years, range 6-51; median IQ 86, range 29-126). Eighty percent of these patients were not raised by their biological mothers. For adolescents and adults, the life span prevalence was 61% for Disrupted School Experiences, 60% for Trouble with the Law, 50% for Confinement (in detention, jail, prison, or a psychiatric or alcohol/drug inpatient setting), 49% for Inappropriate Sexual Behaviors on repeated occasions, and 35% for Alcohol/Drug Problems. The odds of escaping these adverse life outcomes are increased 2- to 4-fold by receiving the diagnosis of FAS or FAE at an earlier age and by being reared in good stable environments.

Nonparametric Estimation of Nonstationary Spatial Covariance Structure

Abstract Estimation of the covariance structure of spatial processes is a fundamental prerequisite for problems of spatial interpolation and the design of monitoring networks. We introduce a nonparametric approach to global estimation of the spatial covariance structure of a random function Z(x, t) observed repeatedly at times ti (i = 1, …, T) at a finite number of sampling stations xi (i = 1, 2, …, N) in the plane. Our analyses assume temporal stationarity but do not assume spatial stationarity (or isotropy). We analyze the spatial dispersions var(Z(xi, t) − Z(xj, t)) as a natural metric for the spatial covariance structure and model these as a general smooth function of the geographic coordinates of station pairs (xi, xj ). The model is constructed in two steps. First, using nonmetric multidimensional scaling (MDS) we compute a two-dimensional representation of the sampling stations for which a monotone function of interpoint distances δij approximates the spatial dispersions. MDS transforms the problem...

Direct and indirect effects of prenatal alcohol damage on executive function.

Patients with Fetal Alcohol Syndrome (FAS) and Fetal Alcohol Effects (FAE) often have difficulty functioning appropriately in everyday life and seem to employ poor problem-solving strategies. Tests of executive function are relevant for quantifying the functional deficits and underlying real-life problems associated with prenatal alcohol exposure. This study considers two pathways for the effects of prenatal alcohol on executive function: a direct effect and an indirect effect through prenatal alcohols effect on IQ. We compared 30 men who had been diagnosed with FAS or FAE with young adults participating in a longitudinal prospective study (n = 419) and 15 control participants that comprised a comparison group. This study is unique in its analysis of the same battery of assessments of executive function in both a large low dose longitudinal study sample and a clinically diagnosed group. Participants were evaluated on 9 tests (including 58 scores) of executive function. For some but not all of the tests in this executive function battery, the decrement in the alcohol exposure group is greater than would be predicted from their IQ scores. We found that 3 of 6 Stroop scores, 2 of 4 Trails scores, 9 of 16 Wisconsin Card Sorting scores, 1 of 2 Ruffs Figural Fluency scores, and 2 of 4 Consonant Trigrams scores appear to be particularly sensitive to the direct effects of prenatal alcohol damage for patients with FAS and FAE. The findings suggest that these executive function tests would be particularly useful in clinical evaluations of persons suspected of fetal alcohol damage because they would not simply reflect deficits in IQ or facial stigmata.

Corpus callosum shape and neuropsychological deficits in adult males with heavy fetal alcohol exposure.

Persons with brain damage consequent to prenatal alcohol exposure have typically been diagnosed with either fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS) or fetal alcohol effects (FAE), depending on facial features. There is great variability of behavioral deficits within these groups. We sought to combine neuroanatomical measures with neurocognitive and neuromotor measures in criteria of greater sensitivity over the variety of consequences of alcohol exposure. To this end, midline curves of the corpus callosum were carefully digitized in three dimensions from T1-weighted MR scans of 15 adult males diagnosed with FAS, 15 with FAE, and 15 who were unexposed and clinically normal. From 5 h of neuropsychological testing we extracted 260 scores and ratings pertaining to attention, memory, executive function, fine and gross motor performance, and intelligence. Callosal midline shape was analyzed by new morphometric methods, and the relation of shape to behavior by partial least squares. The FAS and FAE subgroups have strikingly more variability of callosal shape than our normal subjects. With the excess shape variation are associated two different profiles of behavioral deficit unrelated to full-scale IQ or to the FAS/FAE distinction within the exposed subgroup. A relatively thick callosum is associated with a pattern of deficit in executive function; one that is relatively thin, with a deficit in motor function. The two combine in a very promising bipolar discrimination of the exposed from the unexposed in this sample. Thus there is considerable information in callosal form for prognosis of neuropsychological deficits in this frequently encountered birth defect.

A review of statistical methods for the meteorological adjustment of tropospheric ozone

Abstract A variety of statistical methods for meteorological adjustment of ozone have been proposed in the literature over the last decade for purposes of forecasting, estimating ozone time trends, or investigating underlying mechanisms from an empirical perspective. The methods can be broadly classified into regression, extreme value, and space–time methods. We present a critical review of these methods, beginning with a summary of what meteorological and ozone monitoring data have been considered and how they have been used for statistical analysis. We give particular attention to the question of trend estimation, and compare selected methods in an application to ozone time series from the Chicago area. We conclude that a number of approaches make useful contributions to the field, but that no one method is most appropriate for all purposes and all meteorological scenarios. Methodological issues such as the need for regional-scale analysis, the nonlinear dependence of ozone on meteorology, and extreme value analysis for trends are addressed. A comprehensive and reliable methodology for space–time extreme value analysis is attractive but lacking.

Prenatal alcohol and offspring development: the first fourteen years.

This report summarizes findings from a prospective longitudinal study of the effects of prenatal alcohol exposure on a birth cohort of 500 offspring selected from 1,529 consecutive pregnant women in prenatal care by mid-pregnancy at two representative community hospitals. Effects of prenatal alcohol observable on size measures at birth were insignificant after 8 months. Morphometric analysis of facial features identified effects only at the very highest alcohol exposure levels. By contrast, dose-dependent effects on neurobehavioral function from birth to 14 years have been established using partial least squares (PLS) methods jointly analysing multiple measures of both alcohol dose and outcome. Particularly salient effects included problems with attention, speed of information processing, and learning problems, especially arithmetic.

Neurobehavioral Effects of Prenatal Alcohol: Part I. Research Strategy

This paper, Part I of a three-part series, reviews the literature on the neurobehavioral effects of prenatal alcohol exposure and describes a large group of tests assembled to assess neurobehavioral outcomes of alcohol teratogenesis in 7-year-old children. This paper presents the distribution of these test scores for our sample and discusses their relationships with an alcohol binge score and with full-scale IQ. This group of tests is suitable for children with a wide range of abilities and provides a broad assessment of neurobehavioral deficits. Part II of this series describes a new method of statistical analysis, Partial Least Squares (PLS), which is particularly well suited to complex multivariate data sets such as these, and with its aid, examines the effects of prenatal alcohol exposure on IQ, achievement, vigilance and classroom behavior, a total of 43 outcome scores. Part III examines prenatal alcohol effects on outcomes from the broad group of 164 scores deriving from 17 neuropsychologic tests, using the Partial Least Squares methodology, and summarizes the implications of our findings for the behavioral teratology of alcohol.

Fine Particulate Air Pollution and the Progression of Carotid Intima-Medial Thickness: A Prospective Cohort Study from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution

In a prospective cohort study, Sara Adar and colleagues find that decreasing levels of fine particulate matter in multiple US urban areas are associated with slowed progression of intima-medial thickness, a surrogate measure of atherosclerosis.

Midline corpus callosum is a neuroanatomical focus of fetal alcohol damage

Prenatal exposure to high levels of alcohol often induces birth defects that combine morphological stigmata with neurological or neuropsychological deficits. But it has proved problematic to diagnose these syndromes in adolescents and adults, in whom the morphological signs are absent or attenuated, the behavioral deficits nonspecific, and the exposure history often difficult to reconstruct. Localizing the associated brain abnormalities might circumvent most of these difficulties. To this end, three‐dimensional (3D) locations were recorded for 67 homologous points on or near the corpus callosum in magnetic resonance (MR) brain images from 60 adolescents and adults who were normal, 60 diagnosed with fetal alcohol syndrome, and 60 diagnosed with fetal alcohol effects. We combined the standard statistical approach to this type of geometric data, Procrustes analysis, with a multivariate strategy focusing on differences in variability. In this data set, the shape of the corpus callosum and its vicinity proves systematically much more variable in the alcohol‐affected brains than in those of the normal subjects. From this excess variability follows a promising classification rule, having both high sensitivity (100 out of 117) and high specificity (49 out of 60) in this sample. The discrimination uses four landmark points and two summary scores of callosal outline shape. The information from the corpus callosum and vicinity, as viewed in MR brain images of full‐grown subjects, may serve as a permanent record of the prenatal effects of alcohol, even in patients who are first suspected of these syndromes relatively late in life or who lack the facial signs of prenatal alcohol damage. The statistical pattern underlying the callosal diagnosis also leads to speculations on mechanisms of the prenatal damage. Anat Rec (New Anat) 269:162–174, 2002.