Paul F. Gugger

Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography

Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial-interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia - fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys - in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths, limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with European beech, Qinghai spruce and Douglas-fir illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine-scale processes and the particular geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate.

Influence of late Quaternary climate change on present patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata Née.

Phylogeography and ecological niche models (ENMs) suggest that late Quaternary glacial cycles have played a prominent role in shaping present population genetic structure and diversity, but have not applied quantitative methods to dissect the relative contribution of past and present climate vs. other forces. We integrate multilocus phylogeography, climate‐based ENMs and multivariate statistical approaches to infer the effects of late Quaternary climate change on contemporary genetic variation of valley oak (Quercus lobata Née). ENMs indicated that valley oak maintained a stable distribution with local migration from the last interglacial period (~120 ka) to the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka, LGM) to the present compared with large‐scale range shifts for an eastern North American white oak (Quercus alba L.). Coast Range and Sierra Nevada foothill populations diverged in the late Pleistocene before the LGM [104 ka (28–1622)] and have occupied somewhat distinct climate niches, according to ENMs and coalescent analyses of divergence time. In accordance with neutral expectations for stable populations, nuclear microsatellite diversity positively correlated with niche stability from the LGM to present. Most strikingly, nuclear and chloroplast microsatellite variation significantly correlated with LGM climate, even after controlling for associations with geographic location and present climate using partial redundancy analyses. Variance partitioning showed that LGM climate uniquely explains a similar proportion of genetic variance as present climate (16% vs. 11–18%), and together, past and present climate explains more than geography (19%). Climate can influence local expansion–contraction dynamics, flowering phenology and thus gene flow, and/or impose selective pressures. These results highlight the lingering effect of past climate on genetic variation in species with stable distributions.

Phylogeography of Douglas‐fir based on mitochondrial and chloroplast DNA sequences: testing hypotheses from the fossil record

The integration of fossil and molecular data can provide a synthetic understanding of the ecological and evolutionary history of an organism. We analysed range‐wide maternally inherited mitochondrial DNA and paternally inherited chloroplast DNA sequence data with coalescent simulations and traditional population genetic methods to test hypotheses of population divergence generated from the fossil record of Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), an ecologically and economically important western North American conifer. Specifically, we tested (i) the hypothesis that the Pliocene orogeny of the Cascades and Sierra Nevada caused the divergence of coastal and Rocky Mountain Douglas‐fir varieties; and (ii) the hypothesis that multiple glacial refugia existed on the coast and in the Rocky Mountains. We found that Douglas‐fir varieties diverged about 2.11 Ma (4.37 Ma–755 ka), which could be consistent with a Pliocene divergence. Rocky Mountain Douglas‐fir probably resided in three or more glacial refugia. More variable molecular markers would be required to detect the two coastal refugia suggested in the fossil record. Comparison of mitochondrial DNA and chloroplast DNA variation revealed that gene flow via pollen linked populations isolated from seed exchange. Postglacial colonization of Canada from coastal and Rocky Mountain refugia near the ice margin at the Last Glacial Maximum produced a wide hybrid zone among varieties that formed almost exclusively by pollen exchange and chloroplast DNA introgression, not seed exchange. Postglacial migration rates were 50–165 m/year, insufficient to track projected 21st century warming in some regions. Although fossil and genetic data largely agree, each provides unique insights.

Influence of environmental heterogeneity on genetic diversity and structure in an endemic southern Californian oak

Understanding how specific environmental factors shape gene flow while disentangling their importance relative to the effects of geographical isolation is a major question in evolutionary biology and a specific goal of landscape genetics. Here, we combine information from nuclear microsatellite markers and ecological niche modelling to study the association between climate and spatial genetic structure and variability in Engelmann oak (Quercus engelmannii), a wind‐pollinated species with high potential for gene flow. We first test whether genetic diversity is associated with climatic niche suitability and stability since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Second, we use causal modelling to analyse the potential influence of climatic factors (current and LGM niche suitability) and altitude in the observed patterns of genetic structure. We found that genetic diversity is negatively associated with local climatic stability since the LGM, which may be due to higher immigration rates in unstable patches during favourable climatic periods and/or temporally varying selection. Analyses of spatial genetic structure revealed the presence of three main genetic clusters, a pattern that is mainly driven by two highly differentiated populations located in the northern edge of the species distribution range. After controlling for geographic distance, causal modelling analyses showed that genetic relatedness decreases with the environmental divergence among sampling sites estimated as altitude and current and LGM niche suitability. Natural selection against nonlocal genotypes and/or asynchrony in reproductive phenology may explain this pattern. Overall, this study suggests that local environmental conditions can shape patterns of genetic structure and variability even in species with high potential for gene flow and relatively small distribution ranges.

Species-wide patterns of DNA methylation variation in Quercus lobata and their association with climate gradients

DNA methylation in plants affects transposon silencing, transcriptional regulation and thus phenotypic variation. One unanswered question is whether DNA methylation could be involved in local adaptation of plant populations to their environments. If methylation alters phenotypes to improve plant response to the environment, then methylation sites or the genes that affect them could be a target of natural selection. Using reduced‐representation bisulphite sequencing (RRBS) data, we assessed whether climate is associated with variation in DNA methylation levels among 58 naturally occurring, and species‐wide samples of valley oak (Quercus lobata) collected across climate gradients. We identified the genomic context of these variants referencing a new draft valley oak genome sequence. Methylation data were obtained for 341 107 cytosines, of which we deemed 57 488 as single‐methylation variants (SMVs), found in the CG, CHG and CHH sequence contexts. Environmental association analyses revealed 43 specific SMVs that are significantly associated with any of four climate variables, the majority of which are associated with mean maximum temperature. The 43 climate‐associated SMVs tend to occur in or near genes, several of which have known involvement in plant response to environment. Multivariate analyses show that climate and spatial variables explain more overall variance in CG‐SMVs among individuals than in SNPs, CHG‐SMVs or CHH‐SMVs. Together, these results from natural oak populations provide initial evidence for a role of CG methylation in locally adaptive evolution or plasticity in plant response.

Genome-wide signature of local adaptation linked to variable CpG methylation in oak populations

It has long been known that adaptive evolution can occur through genetic mutations in DNA sequence, but it is unclear whether adaptive evolution can occur through analogous epigenetic mechanisms, such as through DNA methylation. If epigenetic variation contributes directly to evolution, species under threat of disease, invasive competition, climate change or other stresses would have greater stores of variation from which to draw. We looked for evidence of natural selection acting on variably methylated DNA sites using population genomic analysis across three climatologically distinct populations of valley oaks. We found patterns of genetic and epigenetic differentiations that indicate local adaptation is operating on large portions of the oak genome. While CHG methyl polymorphisms are not playing a significant role and would make poor targets for natural selection, our findings suggest that CpG methyl polymorphisms as a whole are involved in local adaptation, either directly or through linkage to regions under selection.

Evolutionary and demographic history of the Californian scrub white oak species complex: an integrative approach.

Understanding the factors promoting species formation is a major task in evolutionary research. Here, we employ an integrative approach to study the evolutionary history of the Californian scrub white oak species complex (genus Quercus). To infer the relative importance of geographical isolation and ecological divergence in driving the speciation process, we (i) analysed inter‐ and intraspecific patterns of genetic differentiation and employed an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework to evaluate different plausible scenarios of species divergence. In a second step, we (ii) linked the inferred divergence pathways with current and past species distribution models (SDMs) and (iii) tested for niche differentiation and phylogenetic niche conservatism across taxa. ABC analyses showed that the most plausible scenario is the one considering the divergence of two main lineages followed by a more recent pulse of speciation. Genotypic data in conjunction with SDMs and niche differentiation analyses support that different factors (geography vs. environment) and modes of speciation (parapatry, allopatry and maybe sympatry) have played a role in the divergence process within this complex. We found no significant relationship between genetic differentiation and niche overlap, which probably reflects niche lability and/or that multiple factors, have contributed to speciation. Our study shows that different mechanisms can drive divergence even among closely related taxa representing early stages of species formation and exemplifies the importance of adopting integrative approaches to get a better understanding of the speciation process.

Evolutionary insights from de novo transcriptome assembly and SNP discovery in California white oaks

BackgroundReference transcriptomes provide valuable resources for understanding evolution within and among species. We de novo assembled and annotated a reference transcriptome for Quercus lobata and Q. garryana and identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to provide resources for forest genomicists studying this ecologically and economically important genus. We further performed preliminary analyses of genes important in interspecific divergent (positive) selection that might explain ecological differences among species, estimating rates of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitutions (dN/dS) and Fay and Wu’s H. Functional classes of genes were tested for unusually high dN/dS or low H consistent with divergent positive selection.ResultsOur draft transcriptome is among the most complete for oaks, including 83,644 contigs (23,329 ≥ 1 kbp), 14,898 complete and 13,778 partial gene models, and functional annotations for 9,431 Arabidopsis orthologs and 19,365 contigs with Pfam hits. We identified 1.7 million possible sequence variants including 1.1 million high-quality diallelic SNPs — among the largest sets identified in any tree. 11 of 18 functional categories with significantly elevated dN/dS are involved in disease response, including 50+ genes with dN/dS > 1. Other high-dN/dS genes are involved in biotic response, flowering and growth, or regulatory processes. In contrast, median dN/dS was low (0.22), suggesting that purifying selection influences most genes. No functional categories have unusually low H.ConclusionsThese results offer preliminary support for the hypothesis that divergent selection at pathogen resistance are important factors in species divergence in these hybridizing California oaks. Our transcriptome provides a solid foundation for future studies of gene expression, natural selection, and speciation in Quercus.

Association of genetic and phenotypic variability with geography and climate in three southern California oaks

PREMISE OF THE STUDY Geography and climate shape the distribution of organisms, their genotypes, and their phenotypes. To understand historical and future evolutionary and ecological responses to climate, we compared the association of geography and climate of three oak species (Quercus engelmannii, Quercus berberidifolia, and Quercus cornelius-mulleri) in an environmentally heterogeneous region of southern California at three organizational levels: regional species distributions, genetic variation, and phenotypic variation. METHODS We identified climatic variables influencing regional distribution patterns using species distribution models (SDMs), and then tested whether those individual variables are important in shaping genetic (microsatellite) and phenotypic (leaf morphology) variation. We estimated the relative contributions of geography and climate using multivariate redundancy analyses (RDA) with variance partitioning. KEY RESULTS The modeled distribution of each species was influenced by climate differently. Our analysis of genetic variation using RDA identified small but significant associations between genetic variation with climate and geography in Q. engelmannii and Q. cornelius-mulleri, but not in Q. berberidifolia, and climate explained more of the variation. Our analysis of phenotypic variation in Q. engelmannii indicated that climate had more impact than geography, but not in Q. berberidifolia. Throughout our analyses, we did not find a consistent pattern in effects of individual climatic variables. CONCLUSIONS Our comparative analysis illustrates that climate influences tree response at all organizational levels, but the important climate factors vary depending on the level and on the species. Because of these species-specific and level-specific responses, todays sympatric species are unlikely to have similar distributions in the future.

Evolutionary lessons from California plant phylogeography.

Phylogeography documents the spatial distribution of genetic lineages that result from demographic processes, such as population expansion, population contraction, and gene movement, shaped by climate fluctuations and the physical landscape. Because most phylogeographic studies have used neutral markers, the role of selection may have been undervalued. In this paper, we contend that plants provide a useful evolutionary lesson about the impact of selection on spatial patterns of neutral genetic variation, when the environment affects which individuals can colonize new sites, and on adaptive genetic variation, when environmental heterogeneity creates divergence at specific loci underlying local adaptation. Specifically, we discuss five characteristics found in plants that intensify the impact of selection: sessile growth form, high reproductive output, leptokurtic dispersal, isolation by environment, and the potential to evolve longevity. Collectively, these traits exacerbate the impact of environment on movement between populations and local selection pressures—both of which influence phylogeographic structure. We illustrate how these unique traits shape these processes with case studies of the California endemic oak, Quercus lobata, and the western North American lichen, Ramalina menziesii. Obviously, the lessons we learn from plant traits are not unique to plants, but they highlight the need for future animal, plant, and microbe studies to incorporate its impact. Modern tools that generate genome-wide sequence data are now allowing us to decipher how evolutionary processes affect the spatial distribution of different kinds of genes and also to better model future spatial distribution of species in response to climate change.