Paul G. Harnik

Extinctions in ancient and modern seas

In the coming century, life in the ocean will be confronted with a suite of environmental conditions that have no analog in human history. Thus, there is an urgent need to determine which marine species will adapt and which will go extinct. Here, we review the growing literature on marine extinctions and extinction risk in the fossil, historical, and modern records to compare the patterns, drivers, and biological correlates of marine extinctions at different times in the past. Characterized by markedly different environmental states, some past periods share common features with predicted future scenarios. We highlight how the different records can be integrated to better understand and predict the impact of current and projected future environmental changes on extinction risk in the ocean.

Long-term differences in extinction risk among the seven forms of rarity

Rarity is widely used to predict the vulnerability of species to extinction. Species can be rare in markedly different ways, but the relative impacts of these different forms of rarity on extinction risk are poorly known and cannot be determined through observations of species that are not yet extinct. The fossil record provides a valuable archive with which we can directly determine which aspects of rarity lead to the greatest risk. Previous palaeontological analyses confirm that rarity is associated with extinction risk, but the relative contributions of different types of rarity to extinction risk remain unknown because their impacts have never been examined simultaneously. Here, we analyse a global database of fossil marine animals spanning the past 500 million years, examining differential extinction with respect to multiple rarity types within each geological stage. We observe systematic differences in extinction risk over time among marine genera classified according to their rarity. Geographic range played a primary role in determining extinction, and habitat breadth a secondary role, whereas local abundance had little effect. These results suggest that current reductions in geographic range size will lead to pronounced increases in long-term extinction risk even if local populations are relatively large at present.

Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans

Recognizing the threat of additive risk Humans are accelerating the extinction rates of species in both terrestrial and marine environments. However, species extinctions have occurred across time for a variety of other reasons. Finnegan et al. looked at the extinction rates across marine genera (groups of species) over the past 23 million years to determine intrinsic extinction rates and what traits or regions correspond to the highest rates. Combining patterns of intrinsic extinction with regions of high anthropogenic threat revealed taxa and areas, particularly in the tropics, where the risk of extinction will be especially high. Science, this issue p. 567 Fossils reveal patterns of extinction in marine species, past and present. Marine taxa are threatened by anthropogenic impacts, but knowledge of their extinction vulnerabilities is limited. The fossil record provides rich information on past extinctions that can help predict biotic responses. We show that over 23 million years, taxonomic membership and geographic range size consistently explain a large proportion of extinction risk variation in six major taxonomic groups. We assess intrinsic risk—extinction risk predicted by paleontologically calibrated models—for modern genera in these groups. Mapping the geographic distribution of these genera identifies coastal biogeographic provinces where fauna with high intrinsic risk are strongly affected by human activity or climate change. Such regions are disproportionately in the tropics, raising the possibility that these ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to future extinctions. Intrinsic risk provides a prehuman baseline for considering current threats to marine biodiversity.

Ecological interactions on macroevolutionary time scales: clams and brachiopods are more than ships that pass in the night

Competition among organisms has ecological and evolutionary consequences. However, whether the consequences of competition are manifested and measureable on macroevolutionary time scales is equivocal. Marine bivalves and brachiopods have overlapping niches such that competition for food and space may occur. Moreover, there is a long-standing debate over whether bivalves outcompeted brachiopods evolutionarily, because brachiopod diversity declined through time while bivalve diversity increased. To answer this question, we estimate the origination and extinction dynamics of fossil marine bivalve and brachiopod genera from the Ordovician through to the Recent while simultaneously accounting for incomplete sampling. Then, using stochastic differential equations, we assess statistical relationships among diversification and sampling dynamics of brachiopods and bivalves and five paleoenvironmental proxies. None of these potential environmental drivers had any detectable influence on brachiopod or bivalve diversification. In contrast, elevated bivalve extinction rates causally increased brachiopod origination rates, suggesting that bivalves have suppressed brachiopod evolution.

Genus age, provincial area and the taxonomic structure of marine faunas

Species are unevenly distributed among genera within clades and regions, with most genera species-poor and few species-rich. At regional scales, this structure to taxonomic diversity is generated via speciation, extinction and geographical range dynamics. Here, we use a global database of extant marine bivalves to characterize the taxonomic structure of climate zones and provinces. Our analyses reveal a general, Zipf–Mandelbrot form to the distribution of species among genera, with faunas from similar climate zones exhibiting similar taxonomic structure. Provinces that contain older taxa and/or encompass larger areas are expected to be more species-rich. Although both median genus age and provincial area correlate with measures of taxonomic structure, these relationships are interdependent, nonlinear and driven primarily by contrasts between tropical and extra-tropical faunas. Provincial area and taxonomic structure are largely decoupled within climate zones. Counter to the expectation that genus age and species richness should positively covary, diverse and highly structured provincial faunas are dominated by young genera. The marked differences between tropical and temperate faunas suggest strong spatial variation in evolutionary rates and invasion frequencies. Such variation contradicts biogeographic models that scale taxonomic diversity to geographical area.

Phylogenetic signal in extinction selectivity in Devonian terebratulide brachiopods

Abstract Determining which biological traits affect taxonomic durations is critical for explaining macroevolutionary patterns. Two approaches are commonly used to investigate the associations between traits and durations and/or extinction and origination rates: analyses of taxonomic occurrence patterns in the fossil record and comparative phylogenetic analyses, predominantly of extant taxa. By capitalizing upon the empirical record of past extinctions, paleontological data avoid some of the limitations of existing methods for inferring extinction and origination rates from molecular phylogenies. However, most paleontological studies of extinction selectivity have ignored phylogenetic relationships because there is a dearth of phylogenetic hypotheses for diverse non-vertebrate higher taxa in the fossil record. This omission inflates the degrees of freedom in statistical analyses and leaves open the possibility that observed associations are indirect, reflecting shared evolutionary history rather than the direct influence of particular traits on durations. Here we investigate global patterns of extinction selectivity in Devonian terebratulide brachiopods and compare the results of taxonomic vs. phylogenetic approaches. Regression models that assume independence among taxa provide support for a positive association between geographic range size and genus duration but do not indicate an association between body size and genus duration. Brownian motion models of trait evolution identify significant similarities in body size, range size, and duration among closely related terebratulide genera. We use phylogenetic regression to account for shared evolutionary history and find support for a significant positive association between range size and duration among terebratulides that is also phylogenetically structured. The estimated range size–duration relationship is moderately weaker in the phylogenetic analysis due to the down-weighting of closely related genera that were both broadly distributed and long lived; however, this change in slope is not statistically significant. These results provide evidence for the phylogenetic conservatism of organismal and emergent traits, yet also the general phylogenetic independence of the relationship between range size and duration.

A framework for detecting natural selection on traits above the species level

Summary To what extent can natural selection act on groupings above the species level? Despite extensive theoretical discussion and growing practical concerns over increased rates of global ecological turnover, the question has largely evaded empirical resolution. A flexible and robust hypothesis-testing framework for detecting the phenomenon could facilitate significant progress in resolving this issue. We introduce a permutation-based approach, implemented in the R package perspectev, which provides an explicit test of whether empirical patterns of correlation between upper level trait values and survivorship are reducible to correlations manifested at lower levels. The package is applicable to virtually any nested set of upper- and lower level groupings, a wide variety of upper level traits, and both historical and contemporary occurrence data. We apply this approach to five paleontological data sets that represent different magnitudes of extinction and differ in taxonomic breadth, geological timing and geographic extent. Using simulations, we demonstrate that this method is a robust means of detecting irreducibility in the relationship between upper level traits and survivorship, and outline circumstances in which the method is less effective. We also find evidence consistent with previous findings of selection above the species level for geographic range size in North American K-Pg molluscs and show that this phenomenon was evident for the same molluscan genera globally. Ultimately, we conclude that at certain points in history, some higher level taxonomic groups have survived differentially with respect to geographic range size in a manner that is not explained by the same trait at the species level, and we show that evidence for this phenomenon varies across taxa and extinction events. We release our method as a flexible and easy-to-use R package that will allow others to help determine the relative frequency of this macroevolutionary phenomenon, both in the fossil record and in estimates of contemporary extinction risk.

ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF ANTHROPOGENIC EUTROPHICATION ON MARINE BIVALVE LIFE HISTORY IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO

Abstract: Natural and anthropogenic eutrophication can increase food supply to basal consumers in aquatic food webs. All else being equal, increased food supply is expected to relax life history trade-offs between egg size and number, resulting in a reduction in egg size over time as individuals that produce more numerous, small eggs exhibit greater fitness. We tested this hypothesis by comparing the sizes of larval shells (PI) of the marine bivalve Nuculana acuta in living and death assemblages collected from surficial seafloor sediments on the Alabama continental shelf; PI size is positively correlated with egg size and can be measured from adult shells. We found that the mean PI size of living N. acuta was approximately three microns smaller than that of the associated death assemblage and that this difference was robust to potential taphonomic biases. This life history shift occurred relatively recently as no trend exists in PI size over the past 3100 years. The live-dead disagreement that we observed is consistent with the history of anthropogenic eutrophication in the Mississippi Bight. These data provide a baseline for comparison with other regions in the Gulf of Mexico that have more sustained histories of anthropogenic eutrophication. More broadly, live-dead comparisons of molluscan life history coupled with age dating of molluscan shells can complement community-level metrics when assessing the impacts of anthropogenic eutrophication on coastal ecosystems, and offer a unique study system for investigating life history adaptation in a field context.

Geographic range velocity and its association with phylogeny and life history traits in North American woody plants

Abstract The geographic ranges of taxa change in response to environmental conditions. Yet whether rates of range movement (biotic velocities) are phylogenetically conserved is not well known. Phylogenetic conservatism of biotic velocities could reflect similarities among related lineages in climatic tolerances and dispersal‐associated traits. We assess whether late Quaternary biotic velocities were phylogenetically conserved and whether they correlate with climatic tolerances and dispersal‐associated traits. We used phylogenetic regression and nonparametric correlation to evaluate associations between biotic velocities, dispersal‐associated traits, and climatic tolerances for 28 woody plant genera and subgenera in North America. The velocities with which woody plant taxa shifted their core geographic range limits were positively correlated from time step to time step between 16 and 7 ka. The strength of this correlation weakened after 7 ka as the pace of climate change slowed. Dispersal‐associated traits and climatic tolerances were not associated with biotic velocities. Although the biotic velocities of some genera were consistently fast and others consistently slow, biotic velocities were not phylogenetically conserved. The rapid late Quaternary range shifts of plants lacking traits that facilitate frequent long‐distance dispersal has long been noted (i.e., Reids Paradox). Our results are consistent with this paradox and show that it remains robust when phylogenetic information is taken into account. The lack of association between biotic velocities, dispersal‐associated traits, and climatic tolerances may reflect several, nonmutually exclusive processes, including rare long‐distance dispersal, biotic interactions, and cryptic refugia. Because late Quaternary biotic velocities were decoupled from dispersal‐associated traits, trait data for genera and subgenera cannot be used to predict longer‐term (millennial‐scale) floristic responses to climate change.