Paul J. Crutzen

A safe operating space for humanity

Identifying and quantifying planetary boundaries that must not be transgressed could help prevent human activities from causing unacceptable environmental change, argue Johan Rockstrom and colleagues.

Biomass Burning in the Tropics: Impact on Atmospheric Chemistry and Biogeochemical Cycles

Biomass burning is widespread, especially in the tropics. It serves to clear land for shifting cultivation, to convert forests to agricultural and pastoral lands, and to remove dry vegetation in order to promote agricultural productivity and the growth of higher yield grasses. Furthermore, much agricultural waste and fuel wood is being combusted, particularly in developing countries. Biomass containing 2 to 5 petagrams of carbon is burned annually (1 petagram = 1015 grams), producing large amounts of trace gases and aerosol particles that play important roles in atmospheric chemistry and climate. Emissions of carbon monoxide and methane by biomass burning affect the oxidation efficiency of the atmosphere by reacting with hydroxyl radicals, and emissions of nitric oxide and hydrocarbons lead to high ozone concentrations in the tropics during the dry season. Large quantities of smoke particles are produced as well, and these can serve as cloud condensation nuclei. These particles may thus substantially influence cloud microphysical and optical properties, an effect that could have repercussions for the radiation budget and the hydrological cycle in the tropics. Widespread burning may also disturb biogeochemical cycles, especially that of nitrogen. About 50 percent of the nitrogen in the biomass fuel can be released as molecular nitrogen. This pyrdenitrification process causes a sizable loss of fixed nitrogen in tropical ecosystems, in the range of 10 to 20 teragrams per year (1 teragram = 1012 grams).

Indian Ocean Experiment: An integrated analysis of the climate forcing and effects of the great Indo-Asian haze

Every year, from December to April, anthropogenic haze spreads over most of the North Indian Ocean, and South and Southeast Asia. The Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) documented this Indo-Asian haze at scales ranging from individual particles to its contribution to the regional climate forcing. This study integrates the multiplatform observations (satellites, aircraft, ships, surface stations, and balloons) with one- and four-dimensional models to derive the regional aerosol forcing resulting from the direct, the semidirect and the two indirect effects. The haze particles consisted of several inorganic and carbonaceous species, including absorbing black carbon clusters, fly ash, and mineral dust. The most striking result was the large loading of aerosols over most of the South Asian region and the North Indian Ocean. The January to March 1999 visible optical depths were about 0.5 over most of the continent and reached values as large as 0.2 over the equatorial Indian ocean due to long-range transport. The aerosol layer extended as high as 3 km. Black carbon contributed about 14% to the fine particle mass and 11% to the visible optical depth. The single-scattering albedo estimated by several independent methods was consistently around 0.9 both inland and over the open ocean. Anthropogenic sources contributed as much as 80% (±10%) to the aerosol loading and the optical depth. The in situ data, which clearly support the existence of the first indirect effect (increased aerosol concentration producing more cloud drops with smaller effective radii), are used to develop a composite indirect effect scheme. The Indo-Asian aerosols impact the radiative forcing through a complex set of heating (positive forcing) and cooling (negative forcing) processes. Clouds and black carbon emerge as the major players. The dominant factor, however, is the large negative forcing (-20±4 W m^(−2)) at the surface and the comparably large atmospheric heating. Regionally, the absorbing haze decreased the surface solar radiation by an amount comparable to 50% of the total ocean heat flux and nearly doubled the lower tropospheric solar heating. We demonstrate with a general circulation model how this additional heating significantly perturbs the tropical rainfall patterns and the hydrological cycle with implications to global climate.

The Anthropocene: are humans now overwhelming the great forces of Nature?

Abstract We explore the development of the Anthropocene, the current epoch in which humans and our societies have become a global geophysical force. The Anthropocene began around 1800 with the onset of industrialization, the central feature of which was the enormous expansion in the use of fossil fuels. We use atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration as a single, simple indicator to track the progression of the Anthropocene. From a preindustrial value of 270–275 ppm, atmospheric carbon dioxide had risen to about 310 ppm by 1950. Since then the human enterprise has experienced a remarkable explosion, the Great Acceleration, with significant consequences for Earth System functioning. Atmospheric CO2 concentration has risen from 310 to 380 ppm since 1950, with about half of the total rise since the preindustrial era occurring in just the last 30 years. The Great Acceleration is reaching criticality. Whatever unfolds, the next few decades will surely be a tipping point in the evolution of the Anthropocene.

Estimates of gross and net fluxes of carbon between the biosphere and the atmosphere from biomass burning

In order to estimate the production of charcoal and the atmospheric emissions of trace gases volatilized by burning we have estimated the global amounts of biomass which are affected by fires. We have roughly calculated annual gross burning rates ranging between about 5 Pg and 9 Pg (1 Pg = 1015 g) of dry matter (2–4 Pg C). In comparison, about 9–17 Pg of above-ground dry matter (4–8 Pg C) is exposed to fires, indicating a worldwide average burning efficiency of about 50%. The production of dead below-ground dry matter varies between 6–9 Pg per year. We have tentatively indicated the possibility of a large production of elemental carbon (0.5–1.7 Pg C/yr) due to the incomplete combustion of biomass to charcoal. This provides a sink for atmospheric CO2, which would have been particularly important during the past centuries. From meager statistical information and often ill-documented statements in the literature, it is extremely difficult to calculate the net carbon release rates to the atmosphere from the biomass changes which take place, especially in the tropics. All together, we calculate an overall effect lof the biosphere on the atmospheric carbon dioxide budget which may range between the possibilities of a net uptake or a net release of about 2 Pg C/yr. The release of CO2 to the atmosphere by deforestation projects may well be balanced by reforestation and by the production of charcoal. Better information is needed, however, to make these estimates more reliable.

Role of mineral aerosol as a reactive surface in the global troposphere

A global three-dimensional model of the troposphere is used to simulate the sources, abundances, and sinks of mineral aerosol and the species involved in the photochemical oxidant, nitrogen, and sulfur cycles. Although the calculated heterogeneous removal rates on mineral aerosol are highly uncertain, mainly due to poorly known heterogeneous reaction rates, the reaction of SO2 on calcium-rich mineral aerosol is likely to play an important role downwind of arid source regions. This is especially important for regions in Asia, which are important and increasing emitters of sulfur compounds. Our results indicate that the assumption that sulfate aerosol follows an accumulation mode size distribution, is particularly in Asia likely to overestimate the sulfate aerosol climate-cooling effect. An even larger fraction of gas phase nitric acid may be associated with and neutralized by mineral aerosol. Interactions of N2O5, O3, and HO2-radicals with dust are calculated to affect the photochemical oxidant cycle, causing ozone decreases up to 10% in and nearby the dust source areas. Comparison of these results with limited available measurements indicates that the proposed reactions can indeed take place, although due to a lack of measurements a rigorous evaluation is not possible at this time.

The Halogen Occultation Experiment

The Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) was launched on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) spacecraft September 12, 1991, and after a period of outgassing, it began science observations October 11. The experiment uses solar occultation to measure vertical profiles of O3, HCl, HF, CH4, H2O, NO, NO2, aerosol extinction, and temperature versus pressure with an instantaneous vertical field of view of 1.6 km at the Earth limb. Latitudinal coverage is from 80°S to 80°N over the course of 1 year and includes extensive observations of the Antarctic region during spring. The altitude range of the measurements extends from about 15 km to ≈ 60–130 km, depending on channel. Experiment operations have been essentially flawless, and all performance criteria either meet or exceed specifications. Internal data consistency checks, comparisons with correlative measurements, and qualitative comparisons with 1985 atmospheric trace molecule spectroscopy (ATMOS) results are in good agreement. Examples of pressure versus latitude cross sections and a global orthographic projection for the September 21 to October 15, 1992, period show the utility of CH4, HF, and H2O as tracers, the occurrence of dehydration in the Antarctic lower stratosphere, the presence of the water vapor hygropause in the tropics, evidence of Antarctic air in the tropics, the influence of Hadley tropical upwelling, and the first global distribution of HCl, HF, and NO throughout the stratosphere. Nitric oxide measurements extend through the lower thermosphere.

Global distribution of natural freshwater wetlands and rice paddies, their net primary productivity, seasonality and possible methane emissions

A global data set on the geographic distribution and seasonality of freshwater wetlands and rice paddies has been compiled, comprising information at a spatial resolution of 2.5° by latitude and 5° by longitude. Global coverage of these wetlands total 5.7×106 km2 and 1.3×106 km2, respectively. Natural wetlands have been grouped into six categories following common terminology, i.e. bog, fen, swamp, marsh, floodplain, and shallow lake. Net primary productivity (NPP) of natural wetlands is estimated to be in the range of 4–9×1015 g dry matter per year. Rice paddies have an NPP of about 1.4×1015 g y−1. Extrapolation of measured CH4 emissions in individual ecosystems lead to global methane emission estimates of 40–160 Teragram (1 Tg=1012 g) from natural wetlands and 60–140 Tg from rice paddies per year. The mean emission of 170–200 Tg may come in about equal proportions from natural wetlands and paddies. Major source regions are located in the subtropics between 20 and 30° N, the tropics between 0 and 10° S, and the temperate-boreal region between 50 and 70° N. Emissions are highly seasonal, maximizing during summer in both hemispheres. The wide range of possible CH4 emissions shows the large uncertainties associated with the extrapolation of measured flux rates to global scale. More investigations into ecophysiological principals of methane emissions is warranted to arrive at better source estimates.

The anthropocene: Conceptual and historical perspectives

The human imprint on the global environment has now become so large and active that it rivals some of the great forces of Nature in its impact on the functioning of the Earth system. Although global-scale human influence on the environment has been recognized since the 1800s, the term Anthropocene, introduced about a decade ago, has only recently become widely, but informally, used in the global change research community. However, the term has yet to be accepted formally as a new geological epoch or era in Earth history. In this paper, we put forward the case for formally recognizing the Anthropocene as a new epoch in Earth history, arguing that the advent of the Industrial Revolution around 1800 provides a logical start date for the new epoch. We then explore recent trends in the evolution of the Anthropocene as humanity proceeds into the twenty-first century, focusing on the profound changes to our relationship with the rest of the living world and on early attempts and proposals for managing our relationship with the large geophysical cycles that drive the Earth’s climate system.

The Anthropocene: From Global Change to Planetary Stewardship

Over the past century, the total material wealth of humanity has been enhanced. However, in the twenty-first century, we face scarcity in critical resources, the degradation of ecosystem services, and the erosion of the planet’s capability to absorb our wastes. Equity issues remain stubbornly difficult to solve. This situation is novel in its speed, its global scale and its threat to the resilience of the Earth System. The advent of the Anthropence, the time interval in which human activities now rival global geophysical processes, suggests that we need to fundamentally alter our relationship with the planet we inhabit. Many approaches could be adopted, ranging from geo-engineering solutions that purposefully manipulate parts of the Earth System to becoming active stewards of our own life support system. The Anthropocene is a reminder that the Holocene, during which complex human societies have developed, has been a stable, accommodating environment and is the only state of the Earth System that we know for sure can support contemporary society. The need to achieve effective planetary stewardship is urgent. As we go further into the Anthropocene, we risk driving the Earth System onto a trajectory toward more hostile states from which we cannot easily return.