Paul R. Halloran

Phytoplankton calcification in a high-CO2 world

Ocean acidification in response to rising atmospheric CO2 partial pressures is widely expected to reduce calcification by marine organisms. From the mid-Mesozoic, coccolithophores have been major calcium carbonate producers in the worlds oceans, today accounting for about a third of the total marine CaCO3 production. Here, we present laboratory evidence that calcification and net primary production in the coccolithophore species Emiliania huxleyi are significantly increased by high CO2 partial pressures. Field evidence from the deep ocean is consistent with these laboratory conclusions, indicating that over the past 220 years there has been a 40% increase in average coccolith mass. Our findings show that coccolithophores are already responding and will probably continue to respond to rising atmospheric CO2 partial pressures, which has important implications for biogeochemical modeling of future oceans and climate.

Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability

Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity and African Sahel and Amazonian droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures, but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860-2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910-1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol-cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol-cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions.

Biotic and Human Vulnerability to Projected Changes in Ocean Biogeochemistry over the 21st Century

Mora and colleagues show that ongoing greenhouse gas emissions are likely to have a considerable effect on several biogeochemical properties of the worlds oceans, with potentially serious consequences for biodiversity and human welfare.

Reversibility in an Earth System model in response to CO 2 concentration changes

We use the HadGEM2-ES Earth System model to examine the degree of reversibility of a wide range of components of the Earth System under idealized climate change scenarios where the atmospheric CO2 concentration is gradually increased to four times the pre-industrial level and then reduced at a similar rate from several points along this trajectory. While some modelled quantities respond almost immediately to the atmospheric CO2 concentrations, others exhibit a time lag relative to the change in CO2. Most quantities also exhibit a lag relative to the global-mean surface temperature change, which can be described as a hysteresis behaviour. The most surprising responses are from low-level clouds and ocean stratification in the Southern Ocean, which both exhibit hysteresis on timescales longer than expected. We see no evidence of critical thresholds in these simulations, although some of the hysteresis phenomena become more apparent above 2???CO2 or 3???CO2. Our findings have implications for the parametrization of climate impacts in integrated assessment and simple climate models and for future climate studies of geoengineering scenarios.

Response to Comment on “Phytoplankton Calcification in a High-CO2 World”

Recently reported increasing calcification rates and primary productivity in the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi were obtained by equilibrating seawater with mixtures of carbon dioxide in air. The noted discrepancy with previously reported decreasing calcification is likely due to the previously less realistic simulation of bicarbonate due to addition of acid or base to obtain simulated future CO2 partial pressure conditions.

Annually resolved North Atlantic marine climate over the last millennium

Owing to the lack of absolutely dated oceanographic information before the modern instrumental period, there is currently significant debate as to the role played by North Atlantic Ocean dynamics in previous climate transitions (for example, Medieval Climate Anomaly-Little Ice Age, MCA-LIA). Here we present analyses of a millennial-length, annually resolved and absolutely dated marine δ18O archive. We interpret our record of oxygen isotope ratios from the shells of the long-lived marine bivalve Arctica islandica (δ18O-shell), from the North Icelandic shelf, in relation to seawater density variability and demonstrate that solar and volcanic forcing coupled with ocean circulation dynamics are key drivers of climate variability over the last millennium. During the pre-industrial period (AD 1000–1800) variability in the sub-polar North Atlantic leads changes in Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures at multi-decadal timescales, indicating that North Atlantic Ocean dynamics played an active role in modulating the response of the atmosphere to solar and volcanic forcing.

A review of recent developments in climate change science. Part I: Understanding of future change in the large-scale climate system:

This article reviews some of the major lines of recent scientific progress relevant to the choice of global climate policy targets, focusing on changes in understanding since publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4). Developments are highlighted in the following major climate system components: ice sheets; sea ice; the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; tropical forests; and accelerated carbon release from permafrost and ocean hydrates. The most significant developments in each component are identified by synthesizing input from multiple experts from each field. Overall, while large uncertainties remain in all fields, some substantial progress in understanding is revealed.

What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature

Earth system models (ESMs) provide high resolution simulations of variables such as sea surface temperature (SST) that are often used in off-line biological impact models. Coral reef modellers have used such model outputs extensively to project both regional and global changes to coral growth and bleaching frequency. We assess model skill at capturing sub-regional climatologies and patterns of historical warming. This study uses an established wavelet-based spatial comparison technique to assess the skill of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models to capture spatial SST patterns in coral regions. We show that models typically have medium to high skill at capturing climatological spatial patterns of SSTs within key coral regions, with model skill typically improving at larger spatial scales (≥4°). However models have much lower skill at modelling historical warming patters and are shown to often perform no better than chance at regional scales (e.g. Southeast Asian) and worse than chance at finer scales (<8°). Our findings suggest that output from current generation ESMs is not yet suitable for making sub-regional projections of change in coral bleaching frequency and other marine processes linked to SST warming.

Numerical simulations of oceanic oxygen cycling in the FAMOUS Earth-System model: FAMOUS-ES, version 1.0

Addition and validation of an oxygen cycle to the ocean component of the FAMOUS climate model are described. At the surface, FAMOUS overestimates northern hemisphere oxygen concentrations whereas, at depth, the southern hemisphere values are too low. Surface validation is carried out with respect to HadGEM2-ES where, although good agreement is generally found, discrepancies are mainly attributed to disagreement in surface temperature structure between the 5 models. The disagreement between the models at depth in the Southern Hemisphere is attributed to a combination of excessive surface productivity in FAMOUS’ equatorial waters (and its concomitant effect on remineralisation at depth) and its reduced overturning circulation compared to HadGEM2-ES. For the Atlantic basin FAMOUS has a circulation strength of 12.7± 0.4 Sv compared to 15.0± 0.9 for HadGEM2-ES. Global and basin-scale decomposition of meridional over10 turning circulation, oxygen concentration and Apparent Oxygen Utilisation (AOU) – a measure of the departure from equilibrium with the atmosphere – allows specific features of the climatology to be assigned to particular basins. For example, the global signal in overestimation of low-latitude northern hemisphere oxygen at intermediate depths is attributed to the Pacific. In addition, the inclusion of the AOU analysis enables explanation of oxygen-deficient deep water in the southern 15 hemisphere which is not seen in the northern hemisphere.

Reconstructing past seasonal to multi-centennial scale variability in the NE Atlantic Ocean using the long-lived marine bivalve mollusc Glycymeris glycymeris

The lack of long-term, highly resolved (annual to sub-annual) and absolutely dated baseline records of marine variability extending beyond the instrumental period (last ~50-100 years) hinders our ability to develop a comprehensive understanding of the role the ocean plays in the climate system. Specifically, without such records, it remains difficult to fully quantify the range of natural climate variability mediated by the ocean, and to robustly attribute recent changes to anthropogenic or natural drivers. Here we present a 211-year (1799-2010 CE; all dates hereafter are common era) seawater temperature (SWT) reconstruction from the northeast Atlantic Ocean derived from absolutely dated, annually resolved, oxygen isotope ratios recorded in the shell carbonate (δ18Oshell) of the long-lived marine bivalve mollusc Glycymeris glycymeris. The annual record was calibrated using sub-annually resolved δ18Oshell values drilled from multiple shells covering the instrumental period. Calibration verification statistics and spatial correlation analyses indicate that the δ18Oshell record contains significant skill at reconstructing Northeast Atlantic Ocean mean summer SWT variability associated with changes in sub-polar gyre (SPG) dynamics and the North Atlantic Current. Reconciling differences between the δ18Oshell data and corresponding growth increment width chronology demonstrates that 68% of the variability in G. glycymeris shell growth can be explained by the combined influence of biological productivity and SWT variability. These data suggest G. glycymeris can provide seasonal to multi-centennial absolutely dated baseline records of past marine variability that will lead to the development of a quantitative understanding of the role the marine environment plays in the global climate system.