Paul W. Sciulli

Forecasting global biodiversity threats associated with human population growth

Abstract The size and growth of the human population are often cited as key factors in threats to Earth’s biodiversity, yet the extent of their contribution to the endangerment and extinction of other species has remained unclear. Moreover, it could be valuable to know what additional threats may arise from continued human population growth. Here we quantify a model of the relationship between human population density and the number of threatened mammal and bird species by nation. Our multiple regression analysis revealed that two predictor variables, human population density and species richness (of birds and mammals), account for 88% of the variability in log-transformed densities of threatened species across 114 continental nations. Using the regression model with projected population sizes of each nation, we found that the number of threatened species in the average nation is expected to increase 7% by 2020, and 14% by 2050, as forecast by human population growth alone. Our findings strongly support the notion that abating human population growth is a necessary, if not sufficient, step in the epic attempt to conserve biodiversity on the global scale.

Evolution of the dentition in prehistoric Ohio Valley Native Americans: II. morphology of the deciduous dentition

In order to evaluate the microevolutionary dynamics of morphological features of the deciduous dentition, I collected data on the variation of 57 features (33 crown and 24 root) from prehistoric Ohio Valley populations. I sampled a total of 370 individuals from 26 populations representing a lineage that inhabited the middle and upper Ohio valley region from approximately 3000 to 350 BP. Evolutionary changes in the frequencies of morphological features of the deciduous teeth in this lineage were limited. Over 80% of the features show no significant differences among the populations. The relatively few features that show consistent differences separate pre- and postmaize agricultural populations. I discuss explanations for this change in terms of selection differences or gene flow. The general pattern of morphological trait expression in the deciduous teeth of this Ohio Valley lineage corresponds to what has been termed the Mongoloid dental complex (sinodonty in the permanent teeth). I suggest additional features that, with further study, may be added to this morphological complex.

Intrapopulation variation in stature and body proportions: Social status and sex differences in an Italian medieval population (Trino Vercellese, VC)

The phenotypic expression of adult body size and shape results from synergistic interactions between hereditary factors and environmental conditions experienced during growth. Variation in body size and shape occurs even in genetically relatively homogeneous groups, due to different occurrence, duration, and timing of growth insults. Understanding the causes and patterns of intrapopulation variation can foster meaningful information on early life conditions in living and past populations. This study assesses the pattern of biological variation in body size and shape attributable to sex and social status in a medieval Italian population. The sample includes 52 (20 female, 32 male) adult individuals from the medieval population of Trino Vercellese, Italy. Differences in element size and overall body size (skeletal height and body mass) were assessed through Monte Carlo methods, while univariate non-parametric tests and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were employed to examine segmental and overall body proportions. Discriminant Analysis was employed to determine the predictive value of individual skeletal elements for social status in the population. Our results highlight a distinct pattern in body size and shape variation in relation to status and sex. Male subsamples exhibit significant postcranial variation in body size, while female subsamples express smaller, nonsignificant differences. The analysis of segmental proportions highlighted differences in trunk/lower limb proportions between different status samples, and PCA indicated that in terms of purely morphological variation high status males were distinct from all other groups. The pattern observed likely resulted from a combination of biological factors and cultural practices.

Stature estimation in an early medieval (XI-XII c.) Polish population: Testing the accuracy of regression equations in a bioarcheological sample

Accurate stature estimation from skeletal remains can foster useful information on health and microevolutionary trends in past human populations. Stature can be estimated through the anatomical method and regression equations. The anatomical method (Fully: Ann Med Leg 36 [1956] 266-273; Raxter et al.: Am J Phys Anthropol 130 [2006] 374-384) is preferable because it takes into account total skeletal height and thus provides more accurate estimates, but it cannot be applied to incomplete remains. In such circumstances, regression equations allow estimates of living stature from the length of one or few skeletal elements. However, the accuracy of stature estimates from regression equations depends on similarity in body proportions between the population under examination and those used to calibrate the equations. Since genetic affinity and body proportions similarity are not always clearly known in bioarcheological populations, the criteria for selection of appropriate formulae are not always straightforward. This may lead to inaccurate stature estimates and imprecise accounts of past life conditions. Prompted by such practical and theoretical concerns this study aimed at (1) estimating living stature in an early medieval (XI-XII c.) Polish sample (40 male; 20 female) through the anatomical method and developing population-specific regression formulae; and (2) evaluating the accuracy of estimates obtained with regression methods commonly employed in European populations. Results indicate that when applied to the skeletal remains from Giecz, our formulae provide accurate estimates, with non-age-corrected formulae performing better than age-corrected ones. Our formulae provide better estimates than those calibrated on recent populations and their use in medieval Polish populations is preferable.

Dental evolution in prehistoric Native Americans of the Ohio valley area. I. Wear and pathology

Temporal patterns of tooth wear rates (loss of crown height) and dental pathologies (caries, abscess, and tooth loss) are estimated for 40 Native American populations of the upper Ohio River valley area ranging in time from the Late Archaic (ca. 3500 years BP) to Protohistoric times (ca. 350 years BP). Within this time span three ‘dental cultural ecological environments’ are recognized: high rates of wear, low frequencies of pathology (Late Archaic), low rates of wear, low frequencies of pathologies (Woodland, ca. 2500–1000 years BP), and low rates of wear and high frequencies of pathologies (Late Prehistoric, ca. post-1000 years BP). Phenotypic selection acting to maintain tooth size is associated with pre-ceramic, hunter–fisher–gatherers in the first dental environment. The introduction and development of ceramics at the end of the Late Archaic is associated with significant reduction in tooth wear rates and reduction in size of maxillary teeth, most likely due to selection. From at least the Middle Woodland period (ca. 2000 years BP) to the end of the time sequence considered, tooth size in Ohio Valley Native Americans was stable, with minor fluctuations due to genetic drift. At present there is no evidence that major changes in diet at the beginning of the Late Prehistoric period affected tooth size, even though the frequencies of dental pathologies increased dramatically.

Exploring the multidimensionality of stature variation in the past through comparisons of archaeological and living populations

Adult stature variation is commonly attributed to differential stress-levels during development. However, due to selective mortality and heterogeneous frailty, a populations tall stature may be more indicative of high selective pressures than of positive life conditions. This article examines stature in a biocultural context and draws parallels between bioarchaeological and living populations to explore the multidimensionality of stature variation in the past. This study investigates: 1) stature differences between archaeological populations exposed to low or high stress (inferred from skeletal indicators); 2) similarities in growth retardation patterns between archaeological and living groups; and 3) the apportionment of variance in growth outcomes at the regional level in archaeological and living populations. Anatomical stature estimates were examined in relation to skeletal stress indicators (cribra orbitalia, porotic hyperostosis, linear enamel hypoplasia) in two medieval bioarchaeological populations. Stature and biocultural information were gathered for comparative living samples from South America. Results indicate 1) significant (P < 0.01) differences in stature between groups exposed to different levels of skeletal stress; 2) greater prevalence of stunting among living groups, with similar patterns in socially stratified archaeological and modern groups; and 3) a degree of regional variance in growth outcomes consistent with that observed for highly selected traits. The relationship between early stress and growth is confounded by several factors-including catch-up growth, cultural buffering, and social inequality. The interpretations of early life conditions based on the relationship between stress and stature should be advanced with caution.

Comparison of population structure in Ohio's late archaic and late prehistoric periods

Previous studies of population structure among prehistoric groups in the Ohio valley region have shown that hunting-gathering populations exhibited a different structure than horticultural populations. Among both Late Archaic hunter-gatherers and Late Prehistoric horticulturists, covariance structures for cranial metrics were found to be homogenous within the populations, but the Late Archaic subpopulations showed little differentiation while the Late Prehistoric subpopulations exhibited a marked differentiation. Biodistance based on cranial discrete trait frequency showed similar patterns, but in the Late Archaic discrete trait distance was associated significantly with the geographical distance separating populations. The present investigation is an extension of the previous studies increasing the Late Prehistoric sample (n = 8 samples and n = 341 individuals) and using the Harpending-Ward model, modified for use with multivariate quantitative data, to estimate the effects of differential gene flow and the amount of differentiation within populations. Results of the present analyses indicate that differentiation among subpopulations, measured by minimum F(ST), was greater in the Late Prehistoric compared to the Late Archaic period. However, for both periods the minimum F(ST) is comparable to values found for historic native populations of the northeast woodlands. Analysis of differential gene flow in the Late Archaic period indicates that geographically peripheral populations were affected more by external gene flow than more central populations. Late Prehistoric populations exhibit a very complex pattern of differential gene flow. We discuss the latter pattern in terms of proposed culture change in the Late Prehistoric period of Ohio.

Evaluation of juvenile stature and body mass prediction

This investigation evaluates the performance of juvenile stature (from tibia and radius lengths) and body mass (from breadth of the femoral distal metaphysis) prediction equations based on the Denver Growth Study sample (Ruff C. 2007. Am J Phys Anthropol 133 698-716). The sample used here for evaluation is an independent sample of juveniles brought to the Franklin County (Ohio) Coroner in 1990-1991. The Ohio sample differs somewhat from the Denver reference sample: it includes approximately 25% African-Americans (rather than all European-Americans), a significant number of right limb bones were measured (rather than all left side), it includes a wider range of economic statuses and it includes individuals who died from disease and trauma. As such the composition and measures of the Ohio sample correspond more generally to that seen in skeletal samples so that the accuracy of the estimates from the present sample should approach those found in practical applications of these methods. Results indicate that both juvenile body mass and stature are estimated relatively accurately. Accuracy of body mass estimates for 1-13-year-old juveniles is similar for African-American and European-American males and females. The least accurate estimates are for individuals in the 8-13 years age class (excluding individuals with body mass indices greater than the age specific 95th percentile): n = 9, +/- 2.9 kg, 95% confidence interval 1.4-4.4 kg. Accuracy of stature estimates for 1-17-year-old juveniles is comparable for the tibia and radius and, as with body mass estimates, are similar for African-American and European-American males and females. For combined age, sex, and ancestry groups average accuracies are in the +/-3.5 to +/-6.5 cm range. Some limitations of the methods are discussed.

Under Restrictive Conditions, Can the Widths of Linear Enamel Hypoplasias Be Used as Relative Indicators of Stress Episode Duration?

Linear enamel hypoplasia (LEH), a type of enamel defect reflecting nonspecific physiological stress, has traditionally been used by bioarchaeologists to assess human health. Initially, measurements of defect width were used to estimate the duration of stress episodes. More recently, methods of counting within-defect perikymata (enamel growth increments) were developed to more accurately assess duration. Because perikymata are often not continuously visible within defects, while widths can usually be measured, the primary purpose of this article was to determine if, under restrictive conditions, the widths of LEH defects might be used as relative indicators of stress episode duration. Using a set of dental replicas from the prehistoric Irene Mound (1150-1400 A.D.), this study also investigated potential sources of variation in defect widths and how often defect widths could be measured and within-defect perikymata counted. Of 120 defects, only 47 contained both measurable defect widths and total within-defect perikymata, while 79 had measurable defect widths. Regression analysis revealed that, for these 47 defects, defect widths were more strongly related to the total number of within-defect perikymata than they were to crown region or tooth type. Although wide prediction intervals indicated that a defects width could not be used to predict the number of within-defect perikymata for an individual, narrower confidence intervals associated with hypothetical mean population widths suggested that mean defect widths might be used to rank populations in terms of relative average stress episode duration.

Estimating Body Mass in Subadult Human Skeletons

Methods for estimating body mass from the human skeleton are often required for research in biological or forensic anthropology. There are currently only two methods for estimating body mass in subadults: the width of the distal femur metaphysis is useful for individuals 1-12 years of age and the femoral head is useful for older subadults. This article provides age-structured formulas for estimating subadult body mass using midshaft femur cross-sectional geometry (polar second moments of area). The formulas were developed using data from the Denver Growth Study and their accuracy was examined using an independent sample from Franklin County, Ohio. Body mass estimates from the midshaft were compared with estimates from the width of the distal metaphysis of the femur. Results indicate that accuracy and bias of estimates from the midshaft and the distal end of the femur are similar for this contemporary cadaver sample. While clinical research has demonstrated that body mass is one principle factor shaping cross-sectional geometry of the subadult midshaft femur, clearly other biomechanical forces, such as activity level, also play a role. Thus formulas for estimating body mass from femoral measurements should be tested on subadult populations from diverse ecological and cultural circumstances to better understand the relationship between body mass, activity, diet, and morphology during ontogeny.