Paul Winters

Family and Community Networks in Mexico-U.S. Migration

A households decision to send migrants is based on information it has on the entry costs, expected returns, and risks of migration. Information and assistance flow from both family migrant networks and community migrant networks. Using data from a national survey of rural Mexican households, we show the importance of networks in both the decision to migrate and the level of migration. We find that community and family networks are substitutes in assisting migration, suggesting that, once migration is well established in a community, family networks become less important. In addition, the development of strong community networks erases the role of household characteristics in migration, allowing those initially least favored to also participate in migration. Finally, we show that network density at points of destination in the United States strongly affects where individuals choose to migrate.

Domestic and international migration from rural Mexico: Disaggregating the effects of network structure and composition

This article explores the role of migrant networks in Mexican rural out-migration, focusing on how network composition influences rural-to-rural, rural-to-urban, and rural-to-international migration. Using data from rural Mexico, migration is considered in a multiple-choice context that allows for the possibility that rural Mexicans can migrate within Mexico, for agricultural and non-agricultural employment, as well as to the United States. The use of disaggregated measures of migrant networks highlights the complexity of network effects on migration decisions. When modelling the migration choice with aggregate measures, US migrant networks appear more important than migrant networks in Mexico. Once networks are disaggregated, however, certain types of migrant networks in Mexico become very important in the decision to migrate within the country. Further, the impact of migrant networks on the decision to migrate varies with the closeness of the bond: the closer the bond, the greater the impact on the migration decision.

Localized and incomplete mutual insurance

The practice of mutual insurance is conditioned by two types of transaction costs: association costs in establishing links with insurance partners and extraction costs in using these links to implement insurance transfers. Data on insurance-motivated water exchanges among households along two irrigation canals in Pakistan show that households exchange bilaterally with neighbors and family members but the majority exchange with members of tightly knit clusters. We, therefore, develop a model that endogenizes both cluster formation and the quality of insurance in the chosen cluster as a function of the relative importance of association and extraction costs. Full insurance at the community level, the object of most empirical tests of mutual insurance, is seen to be an extreme case. It is consequently not surprising that tests of the hypothesis of full risk pooling at the community level have led to rejection. The Pakistan data support the proposition that the configuration of insurance clusters and the intensity of exchanges within clusters vary with association and extraction costs. These costs are affected by kinship, distance to neighbors, and exposure to risk. Households with larger kinship groups, closer neighbors, and greater risk exposure insure through larger clusters and more intensive exchange.

Gender, Networks and Mexico-U.S. Migration

In this article, we examine whether the causes and patterns of Mexican rural female migration differ significantly from rural male migration. A number of hypotheses are discussed to explain why female migration may differ from male migration, with a particular emphasis on the role of migrant networks. Using data from a national survey of rural Mexican households in the ejido sector, significant differences between the determinants of male and female migration are found. While evidence suggests that networks play an important role in female migration, we find that, contrary to case study evidence, female networks are not more influential than male networks in female migration. In fact, female and male networks are found to be substitutes, suggesting they serve similar functions in female migration. Although female migrant networks do not play a special role in the female migration decision, the destination of female migrants is strongly influenced by the location of female network migrants.

Do conditional cash transfers influence migration? A study using experimental data from the Mexican progresa program

Prior research on Mexican migration has shown that social networks and economic incentives play an important role in determining migration outcomes. We use experimental data from PROGRESA, Mexico’s primary poverty-reduction program, to evaluate the effects of conditional cash transfers on migration both domestically and to the United States. Our study complements a growing body of literature aimed at overcoming longstanding hurdles to the establishment of causal validity in empirical studies of migration. Analysis based on the data collected before and after the program’s onset shows that conditional transfers reduce U.S. migration but not domestic migration. The data also enable us to explore the role of existing family and community migration networks. The results show that migration networks strongly influence migration, but that the effect of conditional transfers on migration is apparently not mediated by existing migration network structures. Our results suggest that conditional transfers may be helpful in managing rural out-migration, particularly to the United States.

The role of agriculture in economic development: visible and invisible surplus transfers

The financial surplus of agriculture has been central to theories of the role of agriculture in economic development. Morrisson and Thorbecke (MT) have used a constant-price social accounting matrix (SAM) framework to measure rigorously the financial surplus of agriculture and decompose the mechanisms of surplus extraction. History and theory have, however, stressed the role of prices as an invisible transfer mechanism in addition to the visible transfers identified in the SAM framework. We extend the MT approach by defining and measuring the real surplus of agriculture and decomposing the mechanisms of surplus extraction between visible and invisible financial transfers. Using an archetype computable general equilibrium model for poor African nations, we trace the generation, transfer, and use of an agricultural surplus created by a productivity gain in agriculture. This shows that prices indeed play an overwhelmingly important role in transferring a surplus from agriculture to the benefit of the rest of the economy.

Evaluation of a Hybrid Seed Contract between Smallholders and a Multinational Company in East Java, Indonesia

This article evaluates a hybrid seed contract between Indonesian smallholders and Pioneer Hybrid International. A transaction cost approach was used to analyse contract participation, total farm gross margins and labour and chemical use. The empirical results suggest: (a) the contract favours farmers with more irrigated land; (b) the contract improved returns to farm capital and was welfare improving; (c) the contract increased the demand for non-family labour, particularly female labour; and (d) the contract increased the intensity of chemical use. The success of the contract was attributed to the nature of the contracting process, which was between Pioneer and grower groups and not individual smallholders.

Non-traditional crops, traditional constraints : the adoption and diffusion of export crops among guatemalan smallholders

This paper uses a duration analysis based on adoption data spanning more than 25 years from six communities in the Central Highlands of Guatemala. The analysis explores how household characteristics and external trends play into both the adoption and diffusion processes of non-traditional exports among smallholders. Adoption was initially widespread and rapid, which led nontraditional exports to be hailed as a pro-poor success, reaching all but the smallest landholders. However, over time more than two-thirds of adopters eventually dropped out of production of nontraditional exports. Based on the analysis, production of nontraditional exports appears to have delivered less prosperity to adopters than initially promised. Although smallholders may be enticed into entering into nontraditional exports markets when conditions are favorable, they may lack the capacity to overcome the difficulties that inevitably arise in complex types of cultivations and in highly variable global agricultural markets. Governmental and non-governmental organizations can attempt to mitigate these difficulties, but market forces may overwhelm their efforts, with some adopters still unable to compete in global markets.