Paula Davidson

Linking the Eta Model with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System to Build a National Air Quality Forecasting System

Abstract NOAA and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have developed a national air quality forecasting (AQF) system that is based on numerical models for meteorology, emissions, and chemistry. The AQF system generates gridded model forecasts of ground-level ozone (O3) that can help air quality forecasters to predict and alert the public of the onset, severity, and duration of poor air quality conditions. Although AQF efforts have existed in metropolitan centers for many years, this AQF system provides a national numerical guidance product and the first-ever air quality forecasts for many (predominantly rural) areas of the United States. The AQF system is currently based on NCEP’s Eta Model and the EPA’s Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system. The AQF system, which was implemented into operations at the National Weather Service in September of 2004, currently generates twice-daily forecasts of O3 for the northeastern United States at 12-km horizontal grid spacing. Preoperationa...

Description and Verification of the NOAA Smoke Forecasting System: The 2007 Fire Season

Abstract An overview of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) current operational Smoke Forecasting System (SFS) is presented. This system is intended as guidance to air quality forecasters and the public for fine particulate matter (≤2.5 μm) emitted from large wildfires and agricultural burning, which can elevate particulate concentrations to unhealthful levels. The SFS uses National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) Hazard Mapping System (HMS), which is based on satellite imagery, to establish the locations and extents of the fires. The particulate matter emission rate is computed using the emission processing portion of the U.S. Forest Service’s BlueSky Framework, which includes a fuel-type database, as well as consumption and emissions models. The Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model is used to calculate the transport, dispersion, and deposition of the emitted particulate matter. The model evaluation is carried out...

Using National Air Quality Forecast Guidance to Develop Local Air Quality Index Forecasts

The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) currently provides next-day forecasts of ozone concentrations over the contiguous United States. It was developed collaboratively by NOAA and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in order to provide state and local agencies, as well as the general public, air quality forecast guidance. As part of the development process, the NAQFC has been evaluated utilizing strict monitor-to-gridcell matching criteria, and discrete-type statistics of forecast concentrations. While such an evaluation is important to the developers, it is equally, if not more important, to evaluate the performance using the same protocol as the models intended application. Accordingly, the purpose of this article is to demonstrate the efficacy of the NAQFC from the perspective of a local forecaster, thereby promoting its use. Such an approach has required the development of a new evaluation protocol: one that examines the ability of the NAQFC to forecast values of the EPAs Air Qualit...

Impact of Domain Size on Modeled Ozone Forecast for the Northeastern United States

Abstract This study investigates the impact of model domain extent and the specification of lateral boundary conditions on the forecast quality of air pollution constituents in a specific region of interest. A developmental version of the national Air Quality Forecast System (AQFS) has been used in this study. The AQFS is based on the NWS/NCEP Eta Model (recently renamed the North American Mesoscale Model) coupled with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. This coupled Eta–CMAQ modeling system provided experimental air quality forecasts for the northeastern region of the United States during the summers of 2003 and 2004. The initial forecast over the northeastern United States was approved for operational deployment in September 2004. The AQFS will provide forecast coverage for the entire United States in the near future. In a continuing program of phased development to extend the geographical coverage of the forecast, the developmental version of AQFS has...

US National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Expanding Coverage to Include Particulate Matter

The US National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC), developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in partnership with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), currently provides next-day operational predictions for ground level ozone and smoke for 50 US states. Ozone predictions are produced with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model driven by NOAA’s operational North American Mesoscale weather forecast Model (NAM); routine verification is conducted with monitoring data compiled by the EPA. Smoke prediction relies on satellite detections of smoke sources, US Forest Service emission estimates, with transport and dispersion simulated by the HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model driven by NAM; routine verification is conducted with satellite observations of smoke. Quantitative predictions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are in development. Inventory based simulations using CMAQ with aerosol modules show seasonal biases: overestimating in wintertime and underestimating in summertime. Current testing focuses on including intermittent aerosol sources directly emitted by wildfires and dust storms within the forecast domain; longer-range transport of dust is incorporated through lateral boundary conditions. For example, simulations of trans-Atlantic transport of Saharan dust, injected into the prediction domain, contribute enhanced surface PM2.5 concentrations in the southern US, as observed in surface monitoring. Simulated PM2.5 concentrations are being evaluated with speciated observations in order to improve seasonal biases in predictions. Research on assimilating PM2.5 surface observations shows potential to improve predictions. Furthermore, analysis of discrepancies between observations and model predictions that are produced during assimilation can provide insight on impacts of proposed improvements to PM2.5 predictions.

Use of multiple satellite sensors in NOAA's operational near real-time fire and smoke detection and characterization program

Environmental satellite data provides a unique capability to monitor large areas of the globe for the occurrence of fires and the smoke that they generate which can cause considerable degradation of air quality on a regional basis. The Hazard Mapping System (HMS) incorporates seven polar and geostationary satellites into a single workstation environment. While individual satellite platforms can provide important information that can be used in air quality models, integrating several platforms allows for the combined strengths of various spacecraft instruments to overcome their individual limitations. The HMS was specifically designed as an interactive tool to identify fires and the smoke emissions they produce over North America in an operational environment. Automated fire detection algorithms are employed for each of the sensors. Analysts apply quality control procedures for the automated fire detections by eliminating those that are deemed to be false and adding hotspots that the algorithms have not detected via examination of the satellite imagery. Areas of smoke are outlined by the analyst using animated visible channel imagery. An estimate of the smoke concentration is assigned to each plume outlined. The automated Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Aerosol and Smoke Product (GASP) is used as an aid in providing smoke concentrations and identifying areas of smoke. HMS analysts provide estimates on the size, initiation and duration of smoke emitting fires that are used as input to NOAAs national air quality forecast capability. This system is currently providing 48 hour smoke forecast guidance for air quality forecasters and utilizes the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model.

Toward a US National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Current and Planned Capabilities

In partnership with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has deployed the initial stages of a national air quality forecast capability into the National Weather Service operational suite. Current capabilities provide next-day, hour-by-hour, 12-km resolution predictions of (1) ground-level ozone (O3) for the Eastern U.S. and (2) smoke for the lower 48 states. These are generated twice daily by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction with linked weather and air quality models: the NOAA-EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality model driven by NOAA’s operational North American mesoscale weather prediction model. Forecast accuracy is verified with O3 observations compiled by EPA and with satellitederived smoke observations. Future operational capabilities for nationwide O3 forecasts are targetted within three years, to be followed by quantitative particulate matter forecasts, and extended forecast periods. Expansion will proceed as rapidly as resources and achievement of required test accuracy permit.

Chapter 5.2 Aerosol forecast over the Great Lakes for a February 2005 episode

Abstract Many air pollution agencies in the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes regions in the U.S. had issued air advisories between January 31 and February 4, 2005. Air Quality Index (AQI) issued on the EPA web site for Minnesota peaked at 155 on January 31. In the Chicago area, AQI measured between 110 and 140 for most of this first week of February. The deterioration of the air quality over these regions for a rather prolonged duration had been attributed to the slow passing of broad high pressure systems centered over the Great Lakes during the period. The pressure systems were accompanied by extensive cloudiness and snow coverage over the same regions. This combination of meteorological conditions resulted in reduced atmospheric mixing; and high rates of atmospheric particle formation and growth due to high RH in the lower levels. In this study, the National Weather Services (NWS) Eta-CMAQ Air Quality Forecast System (AQFS) has been used in a research mode to predict the aerosol concentration and speciation of this poor air episode. The model result has been verified in a crude manner by comparing its Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) prediction with that observed by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES), and surface level aerosol concentration prediction with that compiled by the Aerometric Information Retrieval Now (AIRNOW) observation network. Qualitatively speaking, the predicted results are comparable to these aforementioned observed fields. Further analysis of the model results suggested a largely anthropogenic nature of the particulate matter in the lower atmosphere over the regions of high AQI in the period.