Roberto Schaeffer

Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C

The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to “pursue efforts” to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6–3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.

Energy and carbon embodied in the international trade of Brazil: an input–output approach

Abstract All goods and services produced in an economy are directly and/or indirectly associated with energy use and, according to the type of fuel utilized, with CO2 emissions as well. International trade is an important factor in shaping the industrial structure of a country and, consequently, in affecting a countrys energy use and CO2 emissions. This study applies input–output techniques to the Brazilian economy to evaluate the total impacts of international trade on its energy use and CO2 emissions. A commodity-by-industry IO model in hybrid units (energy commodities in physical units and non-energy commodities in monetary units) is applied to the Brazilian economy in 1995. Results show that total energy embodied in the exports of non-energy goods of Brazil equals 831 PJ, while total carbon embodied is 13.5 MtC. These amounts are larger than the relevant amounts embodied in the imports of non-energy goods, respectively 679 PJ and 9.9 MtC. These figures are better understood by contrasting them with the total energy use and the corresponding total carbon emissions of the Brazilian economy in 1995 estimated by this work: 6781 PJ and 99.4 MtC, respectively. This means that international inflows and outflows of energy embodied in non-energy goods are in the order of 10 and 12% of the total energy use, while inflows and outflows of carbon embodied in non-energy goods are approximately 10 and 14% of the corresponding total carbon emissions of the Brazilian economy in 1995. The general picture is that Brazil is not only a net exporter of energy (153 PJ) and of carbon (3.6 MtC) embodied in the non-energy goods internationally traded by the country in 1995, but also that each dollar earned with exports embodied 40% more energy and 56% more carbon than each dollar spent on imports. These findings suggest that Brazilian policy-makers should be concerned about the extra impacts international trade policy may have on energy use and carbon emissions of the country.

Global warming potentials : The case of emissions from dams

Abstract The global warming potential index (GWP) has been proposed to quantitatively compare the integrated greenhouse effect of different gases. However, the use of the GWP index is still subject to major conceptual difficulties. Here we revise and generalize this index and then apply our alternative index to the case of emissions from some hydroelectric reservoirs in Brazil. Our results suggest that, though the cumulative heating effects of emissions from hydroelectric reservoirs may be far from negligible, for the cases studied hydroelectricity in general contributes less to the greenhouse effect over a long time horizon than fossil fuelled electricity generation.

Policies for advancing energy efficiency and renewable energy use in Brazil

Abstract This article first reviews energy trends and energy policy objectives in Brazil. It then proposes and analyzes 12 policy options for advancing energy efficiency and renewable energy use. The policies are analyzed as a group with respect to their impacts on total energy supply and demand as well as CO 2 emissions. It is determined that the policies would provide a broad range of benefits for Brazil including reducing investment requirements in the energy sector, cutting energy imports, lowering CO 2 emissions, and providing social benefits.

Technology transfer of energy efficient technologies in industry: a review of trends and policy issues

Abstract In 1995, industry accounted for 41% of global energy use. Although the efficiency of industrial processes has increased greatly during the past decades, energy efficiency improvements remain the major opportunity to reduce CO 2 emissions. Industrialisation may affect the environment adversely, stressing the need for transfer of cleaner technologies to developing countries. A review of trends, barriers and opportunities for technology transfer is presented. Technology transfer is a process involving assessment, agreement, implementation, evaluation and adaptation, and repetition. Institutional barriers and policies influence the transaction process, as well as the efficiency of the transfer process, in particular in the adaptation and repetition stages of the technology transfer process. Investments in industrial technology are dominated by the private sector. In industry, energy efficiency is often the result of investments in modern equipment, stressing the importance and need for environmentally sound and long-term investment policies. The interactive and dynamic character of technology transfer stresses the need for innovative and flexible approaches, through partnerships between various stakeholders. Adaptation of technology to local conditions is essential, but practices vary widely. Countries that spend on average more on adaptation, seem to be more successful in technology transfer, hence successful technology transfer depends on transfer of technological capabilities.

Exergy accounting of energy and materials flows in steel production systems

A life-cycle inventory (LCI) of steel based on exergy values is presented. Exergy accounting of energy and materials flows for distinct steel production processes — conventional integrated, semi-integrated and new integrated with smelt reduction — is used to calculate and compare exergy losses and efficiencies for each case. The exergy LCI provides an integrated measure of resources, products and wastes at different aggregation levels, from single unit operations and upstream production steps to steel plants and production routes. Exergy values for pollution and wastes are presented and discussed. A sensitivity analysis is performed in order to test how variations in some parameters affect the results of the total exergy accounting for the different steel production routes.

The embodiment of carbon associated with Brazilian imports and exports

Abstract National statistics designed to determine domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions usually do not take into account the embodiment of carbon in international trade flows, thus failing to reflect that countries indirectly emit GHG by importing non-energy goods. As a matter of fact, by becoming more services oriented and importing increasing quantities of energy-intensive goods from developing nations, developed nations are transferring part of their carbon emissions to developing economies, with a consequent impact on the global environment. The reduction of carbon emissions in developed nations due to lower energy intensities is of no help for the global warming problem if it is accompanied by increases in carbon emissions in developing nations caused by exports to developed nations. This paper estimates the amount of energy and carbon embodied in the non-energy exports and imports of Brazil for the period 1970–1993 in order to determine whether or not the international trade of carbon rich products is a problem worth addressing in the case of Brazil. The estimates show that the carbon content of exports was considerably higher than that of imports from 1980 on. In 1990 the difference, expressed as a fraction of Brazils total carbon emissions, was 11.4 percent, or some 8.3 million tonnes of carbon. The significance of these findings for Brazils future energy and emissions policies is discussed.

The potential for electricity conservation and peak load reduction in the residential sector of Brazil

This paper summarizes the methodological approach and the results of a study aimed at assessing the potential for electricity conservation and peak load reduction in the Brazilian residential sector. The study splits the residential sector into 15 subsectors, considering five different geographical regions and three household income classes. Technical, economic and market potentials are determined both for electrical energy conservation and peak load reduction in the period from 2000 to 2020. The main findings show an electricity conservation technical potential for the residential sector of 28%, an economic potential of 14% and market potentials of 12% and 8%. The corresponding results found for the peak load reduction in 2020 were a technical potential of 21%, an economic potential of 4% and market potentials of 3% and 2%, with the large reduction in percentage savings for peak demand in the economic and market scenarios explained in particular by the omission of solar water heating from those scenarios. Finally, carbon dioxide emission reductions associated with the electricity conservation potentials and peak load reductions are also estimated.

Future electric power technology choices of Brazil:: a possible conflict between local pollution and global climate change

Abstract This study aims to identify and discuss the main issues and uncertainties affecting electricity demand and supply in Brazil, and their consequent environmental burdens, over the period to the year 2020. It does so in the framework of two policy scenarios to test economic and environmental policy measures against a business as usual projection, which assumes energy policies existing in Brazil today remain in place and that no new major policies are adopted to reduce energy-related GHG emissions. It provides results from an analysis using a linear programming model that simulated scenarios through changes in emissions fees and caps, costs for technologies (including clean energy supplies) and demand side efficiency, to determine least-cost combinations of power supply technologies that meet projected power demand. Results show that electricity demand in Brazil will continue to grow vigorously over the next two decades, and that the institutional reforms under way in the domestic power sector have the potential to affect the future electric power technology choices to meet this rising demand. Also, the analysis suggests that, depending on how priorities are set, some conflict between local atmospheric pollution problems and global climate change issues may arise.

The efficient use of electricity in Brazil: progress and opportunities

This paper reviews the efforts made with electricity conservation and DSM programs in Brazil in the recent past. The principal end uses in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors are considered. The status of various electricity-saving measures is examined along with initiatives developed by the National Electricity Conservation Program (PROCEL), utilities and other agencies. While some progress has been made, there remains enormous potential for cost-effective efficiency improvements. We conclude with a discussion of strategies for intensifying electricity conservation efforts in the future.