Pedro Rossi

Institucionalidade do mercado de câmbio e a política cambial no Brasil

This paper aims to analyze the exchange rate policy in Brazil from an approach centered on the institutionality of the Brazilian foreign exchange market. For this, it first describes the operation of this market by separating it into four levels (spot, interbank, derivatives and offshore markets) based on interviews’ information with agents of the foreign exchange market, as financial currency traders, agents of the BM&F, Central Bank, Treasury and Finance Ministry. From this analysis, it is evaluated how this institutionality affects exchange policies rate in Brazil (such as Central Bank intervention, capital flows controls, the regulation on banks spot position and the derivative transactions taxes) and, in particular, how these policies impact the exchange rate considering the intermediary channels as the arbitration between spot and future markets, the formation of future prices and the disincentives to speculative operations.

FINANCIAMENTO ÀS EXPORTAÇÕES NO BRASIL

This paper characterizes public and private export credit instruments and presents a recent overview of this market in Brazil. For this, we analyze the “Advances on Exchange Contracts” (ACC), export prepayment operations, BNDES-Exim and Proex with regard to its main operational aspects, the demand profile and the credit demand and supply constraints. One important characteristic of this market, highlighted in this paper, is the close link with international market which influences funding provision for private financing instruments and part of credit demand dynamics that is associated with financial possibilities of gains from external and internal interest rate differential and anticipation of future exchange rate movements. The research is based on interviews information with financial institutions, available data on bank balance sheets, Brazilian Central Bank data and a special tabulation provided by BNDES.

The Fourth Dimension

This paper seeks to address the central role played by derivatives markets in contemporary capitalism. It argues that these financial instruments have added several implications to the dynamics of capitalist economies, so that it forms a new sphere of accumulation here called the fourth dimension, with a new form of capital (the derivative form). In this new dimension, it is possible to observe three major changes compared to the previous dimensions. The first concerns the emergence of new property relations, marked by the separation between the ownership of assets and ownership of the rights on the performance of these assets. The second change relates to the new nature of the gain obtained in derivative transactions, here termed as casino gain. Finally, these changes create the conditions to consider a relationship of subordination of prior dimensions to the fourth dimension, which is consolidated when derivatives markets become the central locus for determining spot prices in key markets.

ESPECULAÇÃO E ARBITRAGEM NO MERCADO BRASILEIRO DE CÂMBIO FUTURO

Esse artigo propoe uma metodologia para tratar da formacao da taxa de câmbio real/dolar com base na identificacao das categorias de agentes responsaveis pela arbitragem e pela especulacao no mercado futuro. A analise desenvolvida identifica a correlacao entre a posicao de câmbio de grupos de agentes na BM&F e a variacao cambial no intervalo de um mes. Os resultados encontrados sao compativeis com a hipotese de que os estrangeiros e investidores institucionais formam tendencias no mercado de câmbio futuro com objetivo de obter ganhos especulativos, e que os bancos atuam para realizar ganhos de arbitragem transmitindo a pressao especulativa oriunda do mercado futuro para o mercado a vista.