Peng Zhan

Eddies in the Red Sea: A statistical and dynamical study

Sea level anomaly (SLA) data spanning 1992–2012 were analyzed to study the statistical properties of eddies in the Red Sea. An algorithm that identifies winding angles was employed to detect 4998 eddies propagating along 938 unique eddy tracks. Statistics suggest that eddies are generated across the entire Red Sea but that they are prevalent in certain regions. A high number of eddies is found in the central basin between 18°N and 24°N. More than 87% of the detected eddies have a radius ranging from 50 to 135 km. Both the intensity and relative vorticity scale of these eddies decrease as the eddy radii increase. The averaged eddy lifespan is approximately 6 weeks. AEs and cyclonic eddies (CEs) have different deformation features, and those with stronger intensities are less deformed and more circular. Analysis of long-lived eddies suggests that they are likely to appear in the central basin with AEs tending to move northward. In addition, their eddy kinetic energy (EKE) increases gradually throughout their lifespans. The annual cycles of CEs and AEs differ, although both exhibit significant seasonal cycles of intensity with the winter and summer peaks appearing in February and August, respectively. The seasonal cycle of EKE is negatively correlated with stratification but positively correlated with vertical shear of horizontal velocity and eddy growth rate, suggesting that the generation of baroclinic instability is responsible for the activities of eddies in the Red Sea.

Ovis: A Framework for Visual Analysisof Ocean Forecast Ensembles

We present a novel integrated visualization system that enables interactive visual analysis of ensemble simulations of the sea surface height that is used in ocean forecasting. The position of eddies can be derived directly from the sea surface height and our visualization approach enables their interactive exploration and analysis.The behavior of eddies is important in different application settings of which we present two in this paper. First, we show an application for interactive planning of placement as well as operation of off-shore structures using real-world ensemble simulation data of the Gulf of Mexico. Off-shore structures, such as those used for oil exploration, are vulnerable to hazards caused by eddies, and the oil and gas industry relies on ocean forecasts for efficient operations. We enable analysis of the spatial domain, as well as the temporal evolution, for planning the placement and operation of structures.Eddies are also important for marine life. They transport water over large distances and with it also heat and other physical properties as well as biological organisms. In the second application we present the usefulness of our tool, which could be used for planning the paths of autonomous underwater vehicles, so called gliders, for marine scientists to study simulation data of the largely unexplored Red Sea.

Factors governing the deep ventilation of the Red Sea

A variety of data based on hydrographic measurements, satellite observations, reanalysis databases, and meteorological observations are used to explore the interannual variability and factors governing the deep water formation in the northern Red Sea. Historical and recent hydrographic data consistently indicate that the ventilation of the near-bottom layer in the Red Sea is a robust feature of the thermohaline circulation. Dense water capable to reach the bottom layers of the Red Sea can be regularly produced mostly inside the Gulfs of Aqaba and Suez. Occasionally, during colder than usual winters, deep water formation may also take place over coastal areas in the northernmost end of the open Red Sea just outside the Gulfs of Aqaba and Suez. However, the origin as well as the amount of deep waters exhibit considerable interannual variability depending not only on atmospheric forcing but also on the water circulation over the northern Red Sea. Analysis of several recent winters shows that the strength of the cyclonic gyre prevailing in the northernmost part of the basin can effectively influence the sea surface temperature (SST) and intensify or moderate the winter surface cooling. Upwelling associated with periods of persistent gyre circulation lowers the SST over the northernmost part of the Red Sea and can produce colder than normal winter SST even without extreme heat loss by the sea surface. In addition, the occasional persistence of the cyclonic gyre feeds the surface layers of the northern Red Sea with nutrients, considerably increasing the phytoplankton biomass.

The eddy kinetic energy budget in the Red Sea

The budget of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the Red Sea, including the sources, redistributions and sink, is examined using a high-resolution eddy-resolving ocean circulation model. A pronounced seasonally varying EKE is identified, with its maximum intensity occurring in winter, and the strongest EKE is captured mainly in the central and northern basins within the upper 200 m. Eddies acquire kinetic energy from conversion of eddy available potential energy (EPE), from transfer of mean kinetic energy (MKE), and from direct generation due to time-varying (turbulent) wind stress, the first of which contributes predominantly to the majority of the EKE. The EPEto-EKE conversion occurs almost in the entire basin, while the MKE-to-EKE transfer appears mainly along the shelf boundary of the basin (200 m isobath) where high horizontal shear interacts with topography. The EKE generated by the turbulent wind stress is relatively small and limited to the southern basin. All these processes are intensified during winter, when the rate of energy conversion is about four to five times larger than that in summer. The EKE is redistributed by the vertical and horizontal divergence of energy flux and the advection of the mean flow. As a main sink of EKE, dissipation processes is ubiquitously found in the basin. The seasonal variability of these energy conversion terms can explain the significant seasonality of eddy activities in the Red Sea. D R A F T June 3, 2016, 5:09pm D R A F T This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. X 4 ZHAN ET AL.: RED SEA EDDY ENERGY BUDGET

Sensing coral reef connectivity pathways from space

Coral reefs rely on inter-habitat connectivity to maintain gene flow, biodiversity and ecosystem resilience. Coral reef communities of the Red Sea exhibit remarkable genetic homogeneity across most of the Arabian Peninsula coastline, with a genetic break towards the southern part of the basin. While previous studies have attributed these patterns to environmental heterogeneity, we hypothesize that they may also emerge as a result of dynamic circulation flow; yet, such linkages remain undemonstrated. Here, we integrate satellite-derived biophysical observations, particle dispersion model simulations, genetic population data and ship-borne in situ profiles to assess reef connectivity in the Red Sea. We simulated long-term (>20 yrs.) connectivity patterns driven by remotely-sensed sea surface height and evaluated results against estimates of genetic distance among populations of anemonefish, Amphiprion bicinctus, along the eastern Red Sea coastline. Predicted connectivity was remarkably consistent with genetic population data, demonstrating that circulation features (eddies, surface currents) formulate physical pathways for gene flow. The southern basin has lower physical connectivity than elsewhere, agreeing with known genetic structure of coral reef organisms. The central Red Sea provides key source regions, meriting conservation priority. Our analysis demonstrates a cost-effective tool to estimate biophysical connectivity remotely, supporting coastal management in data-limited regions.

Far-Field Ocean Conditions and Concentrate Discharges Modeling Along the Saudi Coast of the Red Sea

An integrated modeling system is developed to simulate the far-field dispersions of concentrate discharges along the Saudi coast of the Red Sea. It comprises the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model for simulating the atmospheric circulations, the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm) for simulating the large-scale ocean conditions, and the Connectivity Modeling System (CMS) for tracking particle pathways. We use the system outputs and remote sensing altimetry data to study and analyze the atmospheric and oceanic conditions along the Saudi coast of the Red Sea and to conduct particle tracking experiments. The model simulations show distinctive patterns of seasonal variations in both the atmospheric conditions and the large-scale ocean circulation in the Red Sea, which are also reflected in the salinity and temperature distributions along the Saudi coast. The impact of this seasonality on the far-field dispersion of concentrate discharges are illustrated in seasonal dispersion scenarios with discharging outfalls located at the northern, central and southern Saudi coasts of the Red Sea.

A fault-tolerant HPC scheduler extension for large and operational ensemble data assimilation: Application to the Red Sea

Abstract A fully parallel ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system has been developed for the Red Sea based on the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm) to simulate the Red Sea circulation and the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) ensemble assimilation software. An important limitation of operational ensemble assimilation systems is the risk of ensemble members’ collapse. This could happen in those situations when the filter update step imposes large corrections on one, or more, of the forecasted ensemble members that are not fully consistent with the model physics. Increasing the ensemble size is expected to improve the assimilation system performances, but obviously increases the risk of members’ collapse. Hardware failure or slow numerical convergence encountered for some members should also occur more frequently. In this context, the manual steering of the whole process appears as a real challenge and makes the implementation of the ensemble assimilation procedure uneasy and extremely time consuming. This paper presents our efforts to build an efficient and fault-tolerant MITgcm-DART ensemble assimilation system capable of operationally running thousands of members. Built on top of Decimate, a scheduler extension developed to ease the submission, monitoring and dynamic steering of workflow of dependent jobs in a fault-tolerant environment, we describe the assimilation system implementation and discuss in detail its coupling strategies. Within Decimate, only a few additional lines of Python is needed to define flexible convergence criteria and to implement any necessary actions to the forecast ensemble members, as for instance (i) restarting faulty job in case of job failure, (ii) changing the random seed in case of poor convergence or numerical instability, (iii) adjusting (reducing or increasing) the number of parallel forecasts on the fly, (iv) replacing members on the fly to enrich the ensemble with new members, etc. We demonstrate the efficiency of the system with numerical experiments assimilating real satellites sea surface height and temperature observations in the Red Sea.

On the generation and evolution of internal solitary waves in the southern Red Sea

Satellite observations recently revealed trains of internal solitary waves (ISWs) in the off-shelf region between 16.0°N and 16.5°N in the southern Red Sea. The generation mechanism of these waves is not entirely clear, though, as the observed generation sites are far away (50 km) from the shelf break and tidal currents are considered relatively weak in the Red Sea. Upon closer examination of the tide properties in the Red Sea and the unique geometry of the basin, it is argued that the steep bathymetry and a relatively strong tidal current in the southern Red Sea provide favorable conditions for the generation of ISWs. To test this hypothesis and further explore the evolution of ISWs in the basin, 2D numerical simulations with the non-hydrostatic MIT general circulation model (MITgcm) were conducted. The results are consistent with the satellite observations in regard to the generation sites, peak amplitudes and the speeds of first-mode ISWs. Moreover, our simulations suggest that the generation process of ISWs in the southern Red Sea is similar to the tide-topography interaction mechanism seen in the South China Sea. Specifically, instead of ISWs arising in the immediate vicinity of the shelf break via a hydraulic lee wave mechanism, a broad, energetic internal tide is first generated, which subsequently travels away from the shelf break and eventually breaks down into ISWs. Sensitivity runs suggest that ISW generation may also be possible under summer stratification conditions, characterized by an intermediate water intrusion from the strait of Bab el Mandeb. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.