Per Pemberton

Arctic Ocean freshwater: How robust are model simulations?

The Arctic freshwater (FW) has been the focus of many modeling studies, due to the potential impact of Arctic FW on the deep water formation in the North Atlantic. A comparison of the hindcasts from ten ocean-sea ice models shows that the simulation of the Arctic FW budget is quite different in the investigated models. While they agree on the general sink and source terms of the Arctic FW budget, the long-term means as well as the variability of the FW export vary among models. The best model-to-model agreement is found for the interannual and seasonal variability of the solid FW export and the solid FW storage, which also agree well with observations. For the interannual and seasonal variability of the liquid FW export, the agreement among models is better for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) than for Fram Strait. The reason for this is that models are more consistent in simulating volume flux anomalies than salinity anomalies and volume-flux anomalies dominate the liquid FW export variability in the CAA but not in Fram Strait. The seasonal cycle of the liquid FW export generally shows a better agreement among models than the interannual variability, and compared to observations the models capture the seasonality of the liquid FW export rather well. In order to improve future simulations of the Arctic FW budget, the simulation of the salinity field needs to be improved, so that model results on the variability of the liquid FW export and storage become more robust.

Ridged sea ice characteristics in the Arctic from a coupled multicategory sea ice model

In this study, a multicategory sea ice model with explicit ice classes for ridged and rafted ice was used to examine the evolution of deformed ice during the period 1980-2002. The results show that (1) ridged ice comprises roughly 45-60% of Arctic sea ice volume and 25-45% of the sea ice area, (2) most of the perennial ice consists of ridged ice, and (3) ridged ice exhibits a small seasonal variability. Our results also show an increase in mean ridged ice thickness of 4-6 cm yr(-1) during the summer in an area north of the Canadian Archipelago and a corresponding decrease in the East Siberian Sea and Nansen Basin. At the same time, Arctic sea ice age has been observed to decline and ice drift speed to increase during the simulation period. We connect these findings with a modeled regional increase in the production rate of ridged ice. Comparison of the multicategory model and a two category reference model shows a substantially increased ice production rate due to a more frequent occurrence of leads, resulting in an ice thickness increase of up to 0.8 m. Differences in ice physics between the multicategory and reference models also affect the freshwater content. The sum of liquid and solid freshwater content in the entire Arctic Ocean is about 10% lower and net precipitation (P-E) is about 7% lower as compared to the reference model.

Arctic Ocean freshwater composition, pathways and transformations from a passive tracer simulation

Freshwater (FW) induced transformations in the upper Arctic Ocean were studied using a coupled regional sea ice-ocean model driven by winds and thermodynamic forcing from a reanalysis of data during the period 1948–2011, focusing on the mean state during 1968–2011. Using passive tracers to mark a number of FW sources and sinks, their mean composition, pathways and export were examined. The distribution of the simulated FW height reproduced the known features of the Arctic Ocean and volume-integrated FW content matched climatological estimates reasonably well. Input from Eurasian rivers and extraction by sea-ice formation dominate the composition of the Arctic FW content whilst Pacific water increases in importance in the Canadian Basin. Though pathways generally agreed with previous studies the locus of the Eurasian runoff shelf-basin transport centred at the Alpha-Mendeleyev ridge, shifting the Pacific–Atlantic front eastwards. A strong coupling between tracers representing Eurasian runoff and sea-ice formation showed how water modified on the shelf spreads across the Arctic and mainly exits through the Fram Strait. Transformation to salinity dependent coordinates showed how Atlantic water is modified by both low-salinity shelf and Pacific waters in an estuary-like overturning producing water masses of intermediate salinity that are exported to the Nordic Seas. A total halocline renewal rate of 1.0 Sv, including both shelf-basin exchange and cross-isohaline flux, was estimated from the transports: both components were of equal magnitude. The models halocline shelf-basin exchange is dominated by runoff and sea-ice processes at the western shelves (the Barents and Kara seas) and Pacific water at the eastern shelves (the Laptev, East Siberian and Chukchi seas).

Arctic Ocean Water Mass Transformation in S–T Coordinates

AbstractIn this paper, water mass transformations in the Arctic Ocean are studied using a recently developed salinity–temperature (S–T) framework. The framework allows the water mass transformations to be succinctly quantified by computing the surface and internal diffusive fluxes in S–T coordinates. This study shows how the method can be applied to a specific oceanic region, in this case the Arctic Ocean, by including the advective exchange of water masses across the boundaries of the region. Based on a simulation with a global ocean circulation model, the authors examine the importance of various parameterized mixing processes and surface fluxes for the transformation of water across isohaline and isothermal surfaces in the Arctic Ocean. The model-based results reveal a broadly realistic Arctic Ocean where the inflowing Atlantic and Pacific waters are primarily cooled and freshened before exiting back to the North Atlantic. In the model, the water mass transformation in the T direction is primarily acco...

The response of the central Arctic Ocean stratification to freshwater perturbations

Using a state-of-the-art coupled ice-ocean-circulation model, we perform a number of sensitivity experiments to examine how the central Arctic Ocean stratification responds to changes in river runo ...

Sensitivity of the overturning circulation of the Baltic Sea to climate change, a numerical experiment

An ocean model covering the Baltic Sea area is forced by several climate scenarios for a period extending from 1961 to 2100. The Baltic Sea overturning circulation is then analyzed. The analysis shows that this circulation decreases between the end of the 20th century and the end of the 21st century, and that the decrease is amplified in the case of the strongest greenhouse gas emission scenarios, which corresponds with the highest warming cases. The reasons behind this decrease in overturning circulation are investigated. A strong increase of thermal stratification is noticed at the level of the Baltic Sea mixed layer. Based on buoyancy flux considerations, we demonstrate that the decrease in overturning circulation coincides with the increase of thermal stratification. Evidence shows that the underlying process is linked to a smaller erosion of the halocline due to a higher shielding, itself linked with a stronger and longer seasonal thermocline. This theory works if surface wind mixing is not taken into account directly in the computation of buoyancy fluxes.

Correction to: Disentangling the impact of nutrient load and climate changes on Baltic Sea hypoxia and eutrophication since 1850

The original article can be found online.

Impact of increasing inflow of warm Atlantic water on the sea‐air exchange of carbon dioxide and methane in the Laptev Sea

The Laptev Sea is generally a sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide and a source of methane to the atmosphere. We investigate how sensitive the net sea-air exchange of carbon dioxide and methane in the Laptev Sea are to observed changes in the inflow of Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean and in atmospheric conditions occurring after 1990. Using a time-dependent coupled physical-biogeochemical column model, both the physical and biogeochemical effects are investigated in a series of sensitivity experiments. The forcing functions are kept constant at 40 year climatological values except successively selected drivers that vary in time. Their effects are examined by comparing two periods, 1971–1989 and 1991–2009. We find that the flux of carbon dioxide is more sensitive to the increased Atlantic water inflow than the methane exchange. The increased volume transport of water in the Atlantic layer increases the ocean net uptake of carbon dioxide more than the warming of the incoming bottom water as the vertical advection is enhanced in the first case. The methane cycling is mainly affected by the increase in temperature, irrespective of whether the warming originates from the atmosphere or the incoming bottom water, causing increased outgassing to the atmosphere. In summary, our results suggest that the observed changes in the atmosphere and ocean potentially had a substantial impact on carbon dioxide uptake on the Siberian Shelf. However, the results suggest that the impact on the outgassing of methane might have been relatively modest compared to the interannual variability of sea-air fluxes of methane.