Semjon Schimanke

modeling the combined impact of changing climate and changing nutrient loads on the baltic sea environment in an ensemble of transient simulations for 1961 2099

The combined future impacts of climate change and industrial and agricultural practices in the Baltic Sea catchment on the Baltic Sea ecosystem were assessed. For this purpose 16 transient simulations for 1961–2099 using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea were performed. Four climate scenarios were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Annual and seasonal mean changes of climate parameters and ecological quality indicators describing the environmental status of the Baltic Sea like bottom oxygen, nutrient and phytoplankton concentrations and Secchi depths were studied. Assuming present-day nutrient concentrations in the rivers, nutrient loads from land increase during the twenty first century in all investigated scenario simulations due to increased volume flows caused by increased net precipitation in the Baltic catchment area. In addition, remineralization rates increase due to increased water temperatures causing enhanced nutrient flows from the sediments. Cause-and-effect studies suggest that both processes may play an important role for the biogeochemistry of eutrophicated seas in future climate partly counteracting nutrient load reduction efforts like the BSAP.

Comparing reconstructed past variations and future projections of the Baltic sea ecosystem first results from multi model ensemble simulations

Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850‐2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850‐2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961‐2098, scenario simulations were driven by

Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical–biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961–2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission′s (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.

Regional Arctic sea ice variations as predictor for winter climate conditions

Seasonal prediction skill of winter mid and high northern latitudes climate from sea ice variations in eight different Arctic regions is analyzed using detrended ERA-interim data and satellite sea ice data for the period 1980–2013. We find significant correlations between ice areas in both September and November and winter sea level pressure, air temperature and precipitation. The prediction skill is improved when using November sea ice conditions as predictor compared to September. This is particularly true for predicting winter NAO-like patterns and blocking situations in the Euro-Atlantic area. We find that sea ice variations in Barents Sea seem to be most important for the sign of the following winter NAO—negative after low ice—but amplitude and extension of the patterns are modulated by Greenland and Labrador Seas ice areas. November ice variability in the Greenland Sea provides the best prediction skill for central and western European temperature and ice variations in the Laptev/East Siberian Seas have the largest impact on the blocking number in the Euro-Atlantic region. Over North America, prediction skill is largest using September ice areas from the Pacific Arctic sector as predictor. Composite analyses of high and low regional autumn ice conditions reveal that the atmospheric response is not entirely linear suggesting changing predictive skill dependent on sign and amplitude of the anomaly. The results confirm the importance of realistic sea ice initial conditions for seasonal forecasts. However, correlations do seldom exceed 0.6 indicating that Arctic sea ice variations can only explain a part of winter climate variations in northern mid and high latitudes.

An algorithm based on sea-level pressure fluctuations to identify major Baltic inflow events

Major Baltic inflows are an important process to sustain the sensitive steady state of the Baltic Sea. We introduce an algorithm to identify atmospheric variability favourable for major Baltic inflows. The algorithm is based on sea-level pressure (SLP) fields as the only parameter. Characteristic SLP pattern fluctuations include a precursory phase of 30 days and 10 days of inflow period. The algorithm identifies successfully the majority of observed major Baltic inflows between 1961 and 2010. In addition, the algorithm finds some occurrences which cannot be related to observed inflows. In these cases with favourable atmospheric conditions, inflows were precluded by contemporaneously existing saline water masses or strong freshwater supply. Moreover, the algorithm clearly identifies the stagnation periods as a lack of SLP variability favourable for MBIs. This indicates that the lack of inflows is mainly a consequence of missing atmospheric forcing during this period. The only striking inflow which is not identified by the algorithm is the event in January 2003. We demonstrate that this is due to the special evolution of SLP fields which are not comparable with any other event. Finally, the algorithm is applied to an ensemble of scenario simulations. The result indicates that the number of atmospheric events favourable for major Baltic inflows increases slightly in all scenarios.

A method for assessing the coastline recession due to the sea level rise by assuming stationary wind-wave climate

Abstract The method introduced in this study for future projection of coastline changes hits the vital need of communicating the potential climate change impact on the coast in the 21th century. A quantitative method called the Dynamic Equilibrium Shore Model (DESM) has been developed to hindcast historical sediment mass budgets and to reconstruct a paleo Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The forward mode of the DESM model relies on paleo-scenarios reconstructed by the DESM model assuming stationary wind-wave climate. A linear relationship between the sea level, coastline changes and sediment budget is formulated and proven by the least square regression method. In addition to its forward prediction of coastline changes, this linear relationship can also estimate the sediment budget by using the information on the coastline and relative sea level changes. Wind climate change is examined based on regional climate model data. Our projections for the end of the 21st century suggest that the wind and wave climates in the southern Baltic Sea may not change compared to present conditions and that the investigated coastline along the Pomeranian Bay may retreat from 10 to 100 m depending on the location and on the sea level rise which was assumed to be in the range of 0.12 to 0.24 m.

Variable influence on the equatorial troposphere associated with SSW using ERA-Interim

Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are identified to investigate their influence on the equatorial tropospheric climate. Composite analysis of warming events from Era-Interim (1979–2013) record a cooling of the tropical lower stratosphere with corresponding changes in the mean meridional stratospheric circulation. A cooling of the upper troposphere induces enhanced convective activity near the equatorial region of the Southern Hemisphere and suppressed convective activity in the off-equatorial Northern Hemisphere. After selecting vortex splits, the see-saw pattern of convective activity in the troposphere grows prominent and robust.

Enhanced residual mean circulation during the evolution of split type sudden stratospheric warming in observations and model simulations

Residual mean circulation changes during the evolution of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) are investigated by composite analyses of 76 major warming events identified in a present day simulation performed with a coupled ocean–troposphere–stratosphere model from 299 winters. Their dynamical signatures are compared with the 17 SSW events identified from 35 years of Era-Interim data. The main difference is that, relative frequency of simulated SSW events is smaller than that obtained from reanalysis. SSW events are classified as displacement or split events based on the geopotential field values at 10 hPa. The geopotential field values identify 10 and 3 split events in simulation and observation respectively. The model quite accurately simulates some of the dynamical features associated with the major SSW. Residual mean circulation induced by EP-flux divergence, sum of advection and residual forcing are stronger in split events than in displacement type SSW has been confirmed by both simulation and observation. Moreover, the contribution of EP-flux divergence or planetary wave forcing is larger than the contribution of other types of forcing.

Correction to: Disentangling the impact of nutrient load and climate changes on Baltic Sea hypoxia and eutrophication since 1850

The original article can be found online.

Advancing Global & Regional Reanalyses

This report outlines the structure of and summarizes the recommendations made at the 5th International Conference on Reanalysis (ICR5), attended by 259 participants from 37 countries, in Rome (Italy), on 13-17 November 2017. It first summarizes the conference structure. Then, the key recommendations of ICR5 are given for the five main conference topics: production; observations (data rescue and preparation); data assimilation methods; quality assurance of reanalysis; and applications in science, services, and policymaking. Lastly, five high-level recommendations are proposed to managing agencies on how best to advance the field of reanalyses, which serves tens of thousands of users, via enhanced research, development, and operations.