Peter Batey

Input-output Models for Regional Demographic-Economic Analysis: Some Structural Comparisons

In this paper is presented a comparative survey of the many ways in which a static Leontief input–output model can be extended to include demographic–economic relationships. A family of ten input–output models is identified, with individual members defined according to their representation of household income, employment, and unemployment. Miyazawas fundamental equation of income formation is generalised and used to establish structural relationships between the models, as reflected in income and employment impact-multipliers. Although the emphasis of the paper is theoretical, examples are given of the empirical application of existing models. Some of the models emerging from the analysis are new and offer considerable potential for impact studies in the future.

The modelling of demographic-economic change within the context of regional decline: Analytical procedures and empirical results

Abstract This paper is concerned with the modelling of demographic-economic change within an input-output framework. Several different modes of such change are identified and iterative and simultaneous mechanisms representing their effects are explored in detail. Analytical methods are developed to measure the consequences of demographic-economic change: particular attention is paid to the problem of assessing the regional impact of transfer payments such as unemployment benefit and old age pensions. The application of these methods is demonstrated using a modelling framework constructed for the Merseyside metropolitan county in North West England.

Demographic-Economic Forecasting within an Activity-Commodity Framework: Some Theoretical Considerations and Empirical Results:

This paper presents a methodology which allows demographic and economic forecasting models to be integrated in a consistent manner. By embedding a conventional static Leontief input-output model within an activity analysis framework, a number of interesting results are obtained. First, a new series of production, income, and employment multipliers is derived which offers considerable advantages over those currently in use. Second, partitioning the framework provides fresh insights into the complex relationships between demographic and economic variables. These developments in methodology are tested in a case study of Mersey side where an operational version of the framework is applied in a forecasting context.

Extended Input-Output Models: Progress and Potential

This article presents a critical survey of research on extended input-output models, emphasizing recent developments in demographic-economic and socio-economic analysis. Basic principles of model design and construction are reviewed, by reference to a representative selection of extended models. Two research themes—labor market analysis and income distribution—are pursued in greater detail as examples of the directions of current work. A comparison is made between extended models and social accounting matrices. The closing section contains a discussion of the prospects for future research.

The spatial targeting of urban policy initiatives: a geodemographic assessment tool

Government frequently adopts an area-based approach to the targeting of urban policy initiatives as an indirect way of reaching the individuals that the initiatives are intended to help. The paper develops a method for assessing the success of this spatial targeting. It uses a geodemographic classification system to produce a generalised socioeconomic profile for a particular initiative. This profile can be used to examine the targeting of the initiative in different localities, in order to assess whether targeting has been inefficient (the targeted areas have been defined so that many of the people they contain are in fact not those for whom the initiative is intended) or incomplete (deserving cases have been missed because the initiatives boundaries have been drawn too tightly). The utility of the method is demonstrated by employing the P2 People and Places geodemographic system to assess the targeting of the Sure Start initiative in eight large provincial cities in England.

Aspects of Regional Competition

Many parts of the world are currently experiencing the outcome of processes of economic integration, globalisation and transformation. Technological advances in telecommunications and in transport facilities have opened up new possibilities for contacts and exchanges among regions. Externality effects among regions have increased in importance. As a consequence, competition between regions has intensified, and the issue of regional competitiveness is now high on the agenda of regional politicians and policy-makers.

APPLICATIONS OF GEODEMOGRAPHIC METHODS IN THE ANALYSIS OF HEALTH CONDITION INCIDENCE DATA

This paper describes how a geodemographic discriminator can be used in a variety of research contexts as a means of revealing the extent of variation in the incidence of phenomena among a population. The paper draws upon a number of applications of an approach to the use of area typologies in the investigation of a wide range of health conditions in North West England. For illustrative purposes, examples are presented which are based upon the analysis of data relating to the incidence of food poisoning in the Blackpool, Wyre, and Fylde District Health Authority area and the attendance of a drug abuse clinic in Liverpool. The first part of the paper sets the context for the application of these geodemographic methods by describing, briefly, some of the background to their development and use. The empirical section concludes with a brief discussion of refinements to the basic form of geodemographic analysis reported here.

The Development and Empirical Testing of Extended Input-Output Price Models

The focus in this paper is on the input-output price model as initially developed by Leontief nearly 60 years ago. A number of methodological refinements are proposed, including the formulation, for the first time, of an extended price model, with a disaggregated household sector. This model is presented in both static and dynamic versions. The effects of these refinements are investigated empirically by reference to an example of policy analysis. This relates to a hypothetical proposal to remove energy subsidies at the national level in Iran. The paper reports on the different results produced by each form of price model and also provides evidence on the sensitivity of individual parameter values. The paper concludes by considering the feasibility of constructing more comprehensive versions of the price model and identifying those elements of the model for which data are likely to be more difficult to obtain at national and regional levels.

Planning Theory or Planning Theories? The Hydra Model and its Implications for Planning Education

Abstract This paper critically examines the idea that planning theory experiences major theoretical shifts. Through a consideration of contributions from several academics, it is shown that different theoretical standpoints in planning persist and coexist. A model is proposed to aid understanding of this situation: the Hydra Model. This model views planning as a discipline in which several standpoints maintain a competitive interaction. This is positive: it is the best way to promote lively dialogue and to develop new understandings. However it is considered negative for planners to adopt a single standpoint. Theories are presented as tools for good practice, not as something to which planners should commit. In aiming for the emergence of this type of planner — an individual capable of flowing from one theory to another according to a discretionary view of particular situations — some suggestions for planning education are presented.

Participation in higher education: A geodemographic perspective on the potential for further expansion in student numbers

Abstract. Higher education in England has expanded rapidly in the last ten years with the result that currently more than 30% of young people go on to university. Expansion is likely to continue following the recommendations of a national committee of inquiry (the Dearing Committee). The participation rate is known to vary substantially among social groups and between geographical areas. In this paper the participation rate is calculated using a new measure, the Young Entrants Index (YEI), and the extent of variation by region, gender and residential neighbourhood type established. The Super Profiles geodemographic system is used to facilitate the latter. This is shown to be a powerful discriminator and to offer great potential as an alternative analytical approach to the conventional social class categories, based on parental occupation, that have formed the basis of most participation studies to date.