Peter Chan

The Potential for Electricity Efficiency Improvements in the U.S. Residential Sector

Author(s): Koomey, J.G.; Atkinson, C.; Meier, A.; McMahon, J.E.; Boghosian, S.; Atkinson, B.; Turiel, I.; Levine, M.D.; Nordman, Bruce; Chan, P.

Emissions scenarios, costs, and implementation considerations of REDD-plus programs

Greenhouse gas emissions from the forestry sector are estimated to be 8.4 GtCO 2 -eq./year or about 17% of the global emissions. We estimate that the cost for reducing deforestation is low in Africa and several times higher in Latin America and Southeast Asia. These cost estimates are sensitive to the uncertainties of how much unsustainable high-revenue logging occurs, little understood transaction and program implementation costs, and barriers to implementation including governance issues. Due to lack of capacity in the affected countries, achieving reduction or avoidance of carbon emissions will require extensive REDD-plus programs. Preliminary REDD-plus Readiness cost estimates and program descriptions for Indonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana, Guyana and Mexico show that roughly one-third of potential REDD-plus mitigation benefits might come from avoided deforestation and the rest from avoided forest degradation and other REDD-plus activities.

Advanced technologies for residential appliance and lighting market transformation

Abstract This article describes an assessment of options for and barriers to improved efficiency in four key energy consuming residential products: refrigerator/freezers, clothes washers, electric water heaters, and lighting equipment. National energy savings were calculated using the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratorys (LBNL) Residential Energy Model, which projects the number of households and appliance saturations over time. Energy savings are shown for the period 1998 to 2015. The analysis shows that significant energy savings beyond those achieved through existing efficiency standards are possible. In the face of market and other barriers, however, realizing the technical potentials described in this paper will require an active policy approach to market transformation. Since this article was completed, LBNL has commenced a new set of analyses of energy savings potential in refrigerator/freezers and clothes washers. These and subsequent analyses may enhance technical information given here, furthering an understanding of energy efficiency potential in the residential and commercial sectors.

Impacts of U.S. Appliance Standards to Date

In 1975 the U.S. federal government established its role in improving appliance and lighting energy efficiency by setting voluntary labeling and efficiency guidelines for residential appliances and lighting products under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA, P.L. 94-163). In 1987 EPCA and subsequent legislation was amended and updated by the National Appliance Energy Conservation Act (NAECA, P.L. 100-12). NAECA superceded requirements established by some individual states and set the first national energy efficiency standards for home appliances. A schedule for regular updates, currently specified to 2012, was also established. NAECA standards now influence appliances and equipment comprising about 80% of the source energy in the U.S. residential sector.

Modeling Interregional Transmission Congestion in the NationalEnergy Modeling System

LBNL-59076 E RNEST O RLANDO L AWRENCE B ERKELEY N ATIONAL L ABORATORY Modeling Interregional Transmission Congestion in the National Energy Modeling System Etan Gumerman, Peter Chan, Bernard Lesieutre, Chris Marnay, and Juan Wang Environmental Energy Technologies Division May 2006 http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/EMS_pubs.html This work described in this paper was funded by the Assistant Secretary of Energy for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Planning, Analysis and Evaluation section of Planning, Budget, and Analysis in the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

Investigation of residential central air conditioning load shapes in NEMS

This memo explains what Berkeley Lab has learned about how the residential central air-conditioning (CAC) end use is represented in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS is an energy model maintained by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) that is routinely used in analysis of energy efficiency standards for residential appliances. As part of analyzing utility and environmental impacts related to the federal rulemaking for residential CAC, lower-than-expected peak utility results prompted Berkeley Lab to investigate the input load shapes that characterize the peaky CAC end use and the submodule that treats load demand response. Investigations enabled a through understanding of the methodology by which hourly load profiles are input to the model and how the model is structured to respond to peak demand. Notably, it was discovered that NEMS was using an October-peaking load shape to represent residential space cooling, which suppressed peak effects to levels lower than expected. An apparent scaling down of the annual load within the load-demand submodule was found, another significant suppressor of the peak impacts. EIA promptly responded to Berkeley Labs discoveries by updating numerous load shapes for the AEO2002 version of NEMS; EIA is still studying the scaling issue. As a result of this work, it was concluded that Berkeley Labs customary end-use decrement approach was the most defensible way for Berkeley Lab to perform the recent CAC utility impact analysis. This approach was applied in conjunction with the updated AEO2002 load shapes to perform last years published rulemaking analysis. Berkeley Lab experimented with several alternative approaches, including modifying the CAC efficiency level, but determined that these did not sufficiently improve the robustness of the method or results to warrant their implementation. Work in this area will continue in preparation for upcoming rulemakings for the other peak coincident end uses, commercial air conditioning and distribution transformers.

Valuing the Environmental Benefits of Urban WaterConservation

This report documents a project undertaken for the California Urban Water Conservation Council (the Council) to create a new method of accounting for the diverse environmental benefits of raw water savings. The environmental benefits (EB) model was designed to provide water utilities with a practical tool that they can use to assign a monetary value to the benefits that may accrue from implementing any of the Council-recommended Best Management Practices. The model treats only environmental services associated directly with water, and is intended to cover miscellaneous impacts that are not currently accounted for in any other cost-benefit analysis.

Energy and Carbon Impact of New U.S. Fluorescent Lamp Ballast Energy Efficiency Standards

Climate change policy requires generation of carefully considered estimates of possible energy and carbon savings from various policies. There is always uncertainty in such estimates; we describe how these savings estimates were arrived at for the case of energy efficiency standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts. Several standards scenarios are described in detail along with all the assumptions that had to be made. We worked closely with the ballast industry to develop all of the engineering data needed to estimate energy savings when magnetic ballasts are replaced with electronic ballasts. Current market data was collected from distributors to establish ballast prices.

Modeling the Capacity and Emissions Impacts of Reduced Electricity Demand. Part 1. Methodology and Preliminary Results.

Modeling the Capacity and Emissions Impacts of Reduced Electricity Demand. Part 1. Methodology and Preliminary Results. Katie Coughlin, Hongxia Shen, Peter Chan, Brian McDevitt, and Andrew Sturges Energy Analysis Department Environmental Energy Technologies Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley, CA 94720 February 2013 This work was supported by the Director, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences, of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

A new approach for modeling the peak utility impacts from a proposed CUAC standard

This report describes a new Berkeley Lab approach for modeling the likely peak electricity load reductions from proposed energy efficiency programs in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This method is presented in the context of the commercial unitary air conditioning (CUAC) energy efficiency standards. A previous report investigating the residential central air conditioning (RCAC) load shapes in NEMS revealed that the peak reduction results were lower than expected. This effect was believed to be due in part to the presence of the squelch, a program algorithm designed to ensure changes in the system load over time are consistent with the input historic trend. The squelch applies a system load-scaling factor that scales any differences between the end-use bottom-up and system loads to maintain consistency with historic trends. To obtain more accurate peak reduction estimates, a new approach for modeling the impact of peaky end uses in NEMS-BT has been developed. The new approach decrements the system load directly, reducing the impact of the squelch on the final results. This report also discusses a number of additional factors, in particular non-coincidence between end-use loads and system loads as represented within NEMS, and their impacts on the peak reductions calculated by NEMS. Using Berkeley Labs new double-decrement approach reduces the conservation load factor (CLF) on an input load decrement from 25% down to 19% for a SEER 13 CUAC trial standard level, as seen in NEMS-BT output. About 4 GW more in peak capacity reduction results from this new approach as compared to Berkeley Labs traditional end-use decrement approach, which relied solely on lowering end use energy consumption. The new method has been fully implemented and tested in the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 (AEO2003) version of NEMS and will routinely be applied to future versions. This capability is now available for use in future end-use efficiency or other policy analysis that requires accurate representation of time varying load reductions.