Peter Dolton

The incidence and effects of overeducation in the U.K. graduate labour market

Abstract Research indicates that a significant proportion of the U.S. work force (between 11% and 40% of white males) have more education than is actually required for their jobs, i.e. are overeducated. We consider overeducation in the context of the U.K. graduate labour market, using a one in six sample of 1980 U.K. graduates surveyed in 1986. We find that 38% of graduates were overeducated for their first job and, even six years later (1986), 30% of the sample were overeducated. Most of the literature in this field has estimated the effect of overeducation on earnings and we confirm that the overeducated earn less than their peers in graduate jobs, indicating that the return on surplus education is less than the return on required education. We also frame two additional hypotheses based on human capital theory, related to the effects of degree class and sector, on the earnings of the overeducated. We do not find support for a strict human capital interpretation of the role of education in the U.K. graduate labour market and support an assignment model in which the characteristics of the job, as well as the individual, determine earnings. [JEL I21, J24]

Unemployment Duration and the Restart Effect: Some Experimental Evidence

In this paper, the authors analyze the effect of the Restart program in the United Kingdom. This program consists of an interview of the long-term unemployed to counsel them on effective job search. Failure to attend the interview carries the threat of the cessation of unemployment benefits. The results, using experimental data, indicate that the program has a significant effect of reducing unemployment duration. Estimation of an independent competing risks model distinguishing between exits from unemployment to a job, a training placement, or to signing-off unemployment benefit shows that the channels through which Restart works differs according to exit type. Copyright 1996 by Royal Economic Society.

Leaving Teaching in the UK: A Duration Analysis

In this paper, the authors analyze the decision by teachers to leave the profession. Their results affirm the importance of relative earnings in the tenure and turnover decisions of teachers. The econometric modeling approach used yields important insights into the appropriateness of adopting a flexible, semiparametric specification of the duration dependence structure and of the unobserved heterogeneity distribution in duration models. Copyright 1995 by Royal Economic Society.

The Turnover of Teachers: A Competing Risks Explanation

In this paper, we analyze the decision by teachers to leave the profession in a dependent competing risks framework. The econometric model allows for a flexible, semiparametric specification of the duration-dependence structure and of the unobserved heterogeneity distribution in each exit-specific hazard function. Our results obtained for a large sample of UK teachers affirm the importance of teacher salaries and opportunity wages in the turnover decision of teachers and illustrate the insight gained from differentiating between multiple destinations or exit types.

The effective use of student time: a stochastic frontier production function case study

Abstract The relationship between student study time allocation and examination performance is little understood. We model the allocation of student time into formal study (lectures and classes) and self study and its relationship to university examination scores using a stochastic frontier production function. This case study uses unique time budget data and detailed personal records from one university in Spain. The results suggest that, within the formal system of teaching in Spain, both formal study and self study are significant determinants of exam scores but that the former may be up to four times more important than the latter. We also find that self study time may be insignificant if ability bias is corrected for.

The Economics of UK Teacher Supply: The Graduate's Decision

The problem of teacher supply in the United Kingdom has generated considerable concern recently. This paper studies a large cohort of graduates and their decision whether to become teachers or not. A full structure model of the individuals decision is estimated, which corrects for possible sample selection bias and models endogenously the role of relative earnings. The findings provide support for the estimation procedure used and attest to the importance of relative pay in the individual graduates career decision. Copyright 1990 by Royal Economic Society.

Marital Status, Child Rearing and Earnings Differentials in the Graduate Labour Market

The effects on earnings of family role specialization and residual discrimination are examined within a sample selection model. The common comparison of earnings by sex and marital status is exten ded to the presence of children. The participation and earnings equat ions are estimated for women of different types. Results for U.K. gra duate data suggest that female participation is conditioned by marita l status and the presence of a child while earnings, given participat ion, do not depend on marital status but are affected by the presence of children. Estimates of residual earnings differentials by marital status, sex, and the presence of children are presented. Copyright 1987 by Royal Economic Society.

Job Changes, Occupational Mobility and Human Capital Acquisition: An Empirical Analysis

Most individuals have more than one job or occupation in their working lives. Most employees are repeatedly faced with the choice of whether to remain in their present job (with the possibility of promotion), or quit to another job in the same occupation with a different firm, or--more radically--change occupation. At each stage in an individuals career, the scope for future job or occupational mobility is largely conditioned by the type and quantity of their human capital. This paper presents an empirical study of the factors which link occupational mobility and the acquisition of either firm-based, occupation-specific or general human capital. The data employed are from a cohort of 1980 UK graduates drawn from the Department of Employment Survey 1987. The econometric work presents estimates of the role of firm-based training and occupation-specific training in the career mobility of qualified manpower in the first seven years in the labour market. Copyright 1998 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Board of Trustees of the Bulletin of Economic Research

Female labour force participation and the choice of occupation: The supply of teachers

Abstract This paper examines the relationship between occupational choice and participation decisions by women. It is motivated by recent policy debate in the U.K. concerning the supply of teachers where about sixty per cent of teachers are female and the recruitment of women is vital to the maintenance of the labour force in teaching. Models of earnings determination, occupational choice and labour force participation are estimated for a large sample of female graduates. The choice of occupation and labour market status is modelled as a joint decision between: (i) teaching and non-teaching; and (ii) working and not-working. Estimates from alternative models show that participation decisions are correlated with occupational choice, with individuals who choose teaching being more likely to work. The choice of occupation is also affected by the earnings differential between teaching and non teaching suggesting that teacher shortages could be alleviated by raising teachers earnings.

The Economics of Youth Training in Britain

The future health of any economy lies primarily in educating and training its young people and matching them to appropriate jobs. The extent to which schools, colleges and employers can adequately perform this task so that the next generation can successfully filter from school to work is questionable, particularly against a background of rising youth unemployment. Many countries in recent years have introduced large-scale state training schemes in an attempt to alleviate youth unemployment problems. It is unclear whether such a training scheme is an adequate substitute for a co-ordinated system of private-sector training which is integrated with manpower policy and provides the appropriate training investment incentives for both individuals and firms. The transition from school to work for young people in the late I970S and I 980s has become more difficult than at any time in post-war Britain. Over this period we have seen youth unemployment rise to nearly 25 % by I983 (see Hart, I 987). At the same time we have seen the collapse of British manufacturing industry and with it the decline in the numbers entering traditional apprenticeships from 240,000 in I964 to 63,700 by I986. In response successive governments have chosen to spend large sums, up to I .3 billion by I988, at I985 prices, on youth training schemes (YTS) which, at their height, involved nearly half a million young people in I 986. The average unit cost of training, at I985 prices, was ?2,500 per YTS placement per year, nearly double the cost of having that person on the unemployment register. Is such expenditure justified? In this context it is important to determine: how long the school to work transition process takes, whether having been on a government training scheme speeds up the process and whether it enhances future earnings and employment prospects. This leads to the main question which concerns the extent to which such expenditure and government intervention can be justified on economic grounds. Therefore it is important to examine the effectiveness of these training programmes and evaluate the relevant policy arguments. This paper will survey the main economic policy issues in the provision of training in the UK economy without presenting a detailed discussion of the econometric issues involved in the assessment of training as this is discussed elsewhere (Dolton, I993). Likewise the paper is not a detailed survey of the