Peter H. Larsen

U.S. Economic Sensitivity to Weather Variability

To estimate the economic effects of weather variability in the United States, the authors define and measure weather sensitivity as the variability in economic output that is attributable to weather variability, accounting for changes in technology and changes in levels of economic inputs (i.e., capital, labor, and energy). Using 24 yr of economic data and weather observations, quantitative models of the relationship between state-level sectoral economic output and weather variability are developed for the 11 nongovernmental sectors of the U.S. economy; temperature and precipitation measures were used as proxies for all weather impacts. All 11 sectors are found to have statistically significant sensitivity to weather variability. Economic inputs were then constant and economic output was estimated in the 11 estimated sector models, varying the weather inputs only using 70 yr of historic weather observations. It was found that U.S. economic output varies by up to

Rising Temps, Tides, and Wildfires: Assessing the Risk to California's Energy Infrastructure from Projected Climate Change

485 billion year − 1 of 2008 gross domestic product, about 3.4%, owing to weather variability. U.S. states that are more sensitive to weather variability are identified and sectors are ranked by their degree of weather sensitivity. This work illustrates a valid approach to measuring the economic impact of weather variability, gives baseline information and methods for more detailed studies of the sensitivity of each sector to weather variability, and lays the groundwork for assessing the value of current or improved weather forecast information given the economic impacts of weather variability.

U.S. Energy Service Company (ESCO) Industry: Recent Market Trends

Climate change affects both energy demand and supply through various parameters. These parameters include warmer air and water caused by higher temperatures, changes in the flow of rivers, snowfall and ice accretion, coastal inundation, wildfires, soil conditions, cloudiness, and wind speeds. Increases in energy demand and supply loss create a combined problem for ensuring an adequate supply of fuels and electricity. Projections of these parameters, combined with those of energy demand and supply over the next century, are needed to improve our understanding of the increased vulnerability of the energy sector.

Estimating customer electricity savings from projects installed by the U.S. ESCO industry

Author(s): Stuart, Elizabeth; Larsen, Peter H.; Carvallo, Juan Pablo; Goldman, Charles A.; Gilligan, Donald | Abstract: Key highlights from U.S. Energy Service Company (ESCO) Industry: Recent Market Trends • After more than two decades of year-over-year growth, ESCO industry revenues appeared to flatten between 2011 and 2014. ESCOs reported 2014 industry revenue of approximately

Estimating Power System Interruption Costs: A Guidebook for Electric Utilities

5.3 billion, the same as revenues reported in 2011. • Based on ESCOs’ 3-year growth projections, ESCOs expect total annual industry revenues to be approximately

Spatially-explicit water balance implications of carbon capture and sequestration

7.6 billion for 2017, which equates to an average annual growth rate of ~13% for the three years 2015-2017. • Public and institutional market sectors accounted for 85% of industry revenue in 2014, which is consistent with previous study findings. • Performance contracting generated 75% (

Benefits of Peak Load Reduction Resulting from the Central Air-Conditioning (CAC) Standard

3.7 billion) of industry revenue in 2014, which is somewhat higher than the 69% share for performance contracting reported in 2011 and 2008. Design-build projects contributed the next largest share of 2014 revenue (16% or ~

Life-Cycle Assessment of Electric Power Systems

800 million), followed distantly by consulting services (5%), onsite generation power purchase agreements (3%) and other activities (2%). • The share of industry revenue contributed by large ESCOs (annual energy services revenue of

Evolution of the U.S. energy service company industry: Market size and project performance from 1990–2008

300M or greater) declined somewhat between 2011 and 2014. Accordingly, medium-sized ESCOs as a group (annual revenue between

Estimating impacts of warming temperatures on California's electricity system

100M and