Peter Krafft

Bots as Virtual Confederates: Design and Ethics

The use of bots as virtual confederates in online field experiments holds extreme promise as a new methodological tool in computational social science. However, this potential tool comes with inherent ethical challenges. Informed consent can be difficult to obtain in many cases, and the use of confederates necessarily implies the use of deception. In this work we outline a design space for bots as virtual confederates, and we propose a set of guidelines for meeting the status quo for ethical experimentation. We draw upon examples from prior work in the CSCW community and the broader social science literature for illustration. While a handful of prior researchers have used bots in online experimentation, our work is meant to inspire future work in this area and raise awareness of the associated ethical issues.

A Distributed Learning Dynamics in Social Groups

We study a distributed learning process observed in human groups and other social animals. This learning process appears in settings in which each individual in a group is trying to decide over time, in a distributed manner, which option to select among a shared set of options. Specifically, we consider a stochastic dynamics in a group in which every individual selects an option in the following two-step process: (1) select a random individual and observe the option that individual chose in the previous time step, and (2) adopt that option if its stochastic quality was good at that time step. Various instantiations of such distributed learning appear in nature, and have also been studied in the social science literature. From the perspective of an individual, an attractive feature of this learning process is that it is a simple heuristic that requires extremely limited computational capacities. But what does it mean for the group -- could such a simple, distributed and essentially memoryless process lead the group as a whole to perform optimally? We show that the answer to this question is yes -- this distributed learning is highly effective at identifying the best option and is close to optimal for the group overall. Our analysis also gives quantitative bounds that show fast convergence of these stochastic dynamics. We prove our result by first defining a (stochastic) infinite population version of these distributed learning dynamics and then combining its strong convergence properties along with its relation to the finite population dynamics. Prior to our work the only theoretical work related to such learning dynamics has been either in deterministic special cases or in the asymptotic setting. Finally, we observe that our infinite population dynamics is a stochastic variant of the classic multiplicative weights update (MWU) method. Consequently, we arrive at the following interesting converse: the learning dynamics on a finite population considered here can be viewed as a novel distributed and low-memory implementation of the classic MWU method.

Centralized, Parallel, and Distributed Information Processing during Collective Sensemaking

Widespread rumoring can hinder attempts to make sense of what is going on during disaster scenarios. Understanding how and why rumors spread in these contexts could assist in the design of systems that facilitate timely and accurate sensemaking. We address a basic question in this line: To what extent does rumor evolution occur (1) through reliance on a centralized information source, (2) in parallel information silos, or (3) through a web of complex informational interactions? We develop a conceptual model and associated analysis algorithms that allow us to distinguish between these possibilities. We analyze a case of rumoring on Twitter during the Boston Marathon Bombing. We find that rumor spreading was predominantly a parallel process in this case, which is consistent with a hypothesis that information silos may underlie the persistence of false rumors. Special attention towards detecting and resolving parallel information threads during collective sensemaking may hence be warranted.

Inferring Population Preferences via Mixtures of Spatial Voting Models

Understanding political phenomena requires measuring the political preferences of society. We introduce a model based on mixtures of spatial voting models that infers the underlying distribution of political preferences of voters with only voting records of the population and political positions of candidates in an election. Beyond offering a cost-effective alternative to surveys, this method projects the political preferences of voters and candidates into a shared latent preference space. This projection allows us to directly compare the preferences of the two groups, which is desirable for political science but difficult with traditional survey methods. After validating the aggregated-level inferences of this model against results of related work and on simple prediction tasks, we apply the model to better understand the phenomenon of political polarization in the Texas, New York, and Ohio electorates. Taken at face value, inferences drawn from our model indicate that the electorates in these states may be less bimodal than the distribution of candidates, but that the electorates are comparatively more extreme in their variance. We conclude with a discussion of limitations of our method and potential future directions for research.