Peter Midmore

The development of the European market for organic products: insights from a Delphi study

Purpose – The purpose of the paper is present experiences using a well‐established forecasting tool, the Delphi method, to explore the dynamics of, and prospects for the development of the market for organic food in Europe. Delphi, developed by the Rand co‐operation to improve military technology forecasting, uses expert feedback to refine an informed perspective on complex or uncertain issues.Design/methodology/approach – This study used experts of the organic food market in 18 countries to explore factors influencing the development of the organic market, future market prospects, and the role of governments in future market development.Findings – The results show that short supply chains and focus on regional organic shops may be an indication of an earlier stage of market development, likely to be followed by integration into mainstream outlets and involvement of multiple retailers.Research limitations/implications – While more research would clearly be required, it is concluded that the mutual but mis...

Impact of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in Britain: implications for rural studies

Abstract This paper assesses the impact of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in terms of its implications for the discipline of rural studies. In particular, it focuses on the position of agriculture in rural economy and society, the standing of the government after its management of the outbreak, and the performance of the new devolved regional tiers of government. After a brief review of the history and aggregate impact of the outbreak, the general themes of the paper are explored from a range of Welsh case-study evidence, showing the impact on farm structures and the environment, rural communities and their social life. The major conclusions are that the unanticipated magnitude of effect of the outbreak should direct more attention to the nature of the space shared as a public good by agriculture and rural tourism; that the loss of trust in administrations as a result of the specific management of the outbreak reveals scope for new approaches in the study of governance and partnership at a rural level; and the opportunity for the devolved administrations to emphasise a difference in perspective, on both the outbreak and rural issues in general, highlights potentially widening fault-lines in the constitutional reform process, especially as discussion over the future of European rural policies proceed.

Entrepreneurship and rural economic development: a scenario analysis approach

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to advocate the use of scenario analysis to develop foresight for the improvement of policies supporting rural entrepreneurship and illustrate the approach with an application in Mid Wales.Design/methodology/approach – A general overview of the economic problems of rural areas and their manifestation in the case study of Mid Wales is followed by an outline of the origins and approach of scenario analysis. Application of the technique involved a group of policy makers and entrepreneurs undertaking a structured programme of scenario development. The resulting scenarios, their usefulness for enterprise support, and wider implications are summarised.Findings – The scenario analysis exercise enabled key stakeholders to confront and deal with considerable uncertainties by developing a shared understanding of the barriers to small firm growth and rural economic regeneration.Research limitations/implications – A major conclusion is that effective approaches for support of ru...

Separating Technical Change from Time-Varying Technical Inefficiency in the Absence of Distributional Assumptions

This paper proposes an alternative model for separating technical change from time-varying technical inefficiency. The proposed formulation uses the general index, developed by Baltagi and Griffin (1988), to model technical change in the production frontier function and a quadratic function of time, as in Cornwell, Schmidt and Sickles (1990), to capture the temporal pattern of technical inefficiency. In such a setting, all parameters associated with the rate of technical change and the temporal pattern of technical inefficiency are identified separately. Moreover, the proposed formulation is independent of any distributional assumption concerning the one-sided error term associated with technical inefficiency, and it can be estimated in a single stage with non-linear FGLS. Empirical results based on a translog production frontier, and estimates of technical inefficiency and technical change are presented for the UK dairy sector over the period 1982–1992.

Economics for sustainable rural systems

Abstract Critics often reproach the discipline of economics for supporting developments that result in environmental and social degradation. This article identifies where such censure is valid, but proceeds to argue that the rationale underlying economic techniques is at fault, rather than the techniques themselves. Within the rural context, we suggest that economics can make a valuable contribution to the design and achievement of sustainable ways of living. Valid criticism of economics focuses on its assumptions about value, since this has led to emphasis of favourable effects of markets, and laissez-faire. Policies exposing rural areas to more rigorously competitive market conditions encourage their transformation by increasing mechanisation, industrialisation and a less sustainable use of resources. New approaches and policies are required if different outcomes are to be achieved. An initial step is to identify desirable outcomes, a matter of social choice. However, society makes multiple demands on rural resources, and such issues cannot be adequately captured within a neo-classical welfare model. An alternative, hierarchical framework in the tradition of systems thinking, capable of analysing the complex relations associated with rural resource use, provides appropriate emphasis to the economic links between goals at different levels within the system, and appears to have some heuristic value. An empirical counterpart of the hierarchical framework, input–output analysis, generates information to support social choices and can also contribute to the understanding of economic systems and their interaction with the wider social, cultural, ethical and environmental universe. The article concludes with some revised economic policy prescriptions to promote rural sustainability.

Connectedness and SME Financing in Post-Communist Economies: Evidence from Uzbekistan

Abstract This paper investigates effects of interpersonal links with bureaucrats on SME access to formal finance. A survey of 502 SMEs in post-communist Uzbekistan shows fewer SMEs with government connections express a need for external finance, but success rates of applications are higher than for SMEs without connections. Econometric models show government-connected SMEs receive more formal credit than their counterparts. The small share of SME credit available is thus distributed in favour of those capitalising on bureaucratic links, with consequent resource misallocation. Findings imply that greater SME credit flows need supplementing with capacity building that improves bank transparency and efficiency.

Regional Self-reliance and Economic Development: The Pembrokeshire Case

This paper describes the outcome of an investigation to identify the scope for innovation and improvement of local economic interdependence in Pembrokeshire through greater self-reliance. It outlines a strategic framework identifying collaboration between various economic stakeholders supported by institutional actors, and provides an assessment of the potential impact of increased self-reliance on the growth and development of the Pembrokeshire economy. The paper concludes with more generalised observations regarding the lessons to be learned for self-reliance strategies in peripheral regions.

Euro-Commentary : Scenario Analysis and Regional Economic Development: The Case of Mid Wales

The scenario approach to developing foresight, to improve policies supporting rural economic development, is discussed and illustrated with an application in the Mid Wales region of the United Kingdom, which displays characteristic rural problems, including agricultural decline, demographic imbalance, and sparsity and remoteness of populations. Conclusions which may be drawn from this application suggest that the approach helps to confront and deal with the considerable uncertainties involved in strategic decision making at the regional level by developing a shared understanding among key opinion-formers.

‘Ground truths’ and scenarios: Examining and testing regional policy in North West Wales

This article describes how regional policy issues in North West Wales have been explored with local stakeholders, using scenario development to organise indigenous knowledge and elicit interpretations of the wider world. The context of scenario development, both in general and in its participatory form, is outlined, prior to an introduction to the study region and the policy framework which influences its development. In the latter part of the article, the process of construction and development of scenarios in combination with Delphi-like iterative questionnaires is described, showing how the gathering, organisation and interpretation of opinions, information and data from key stakeholders can illustrate a range of potential regional futures. The approach allows considerable broadening of stakeholder engagement at low cost. The four resulting scenario narratives and the policy insights they yield diverge considerably from top-down strategic planning perspectives and prescriptions. The article concludes by considering the general applicability of this guided method which draws on local knowledge of and involvement in policy decisions across different scales of impact, and provides more realistic and balanced perspectives, and demonstrates that enhanced quality and efficiency in decision making as well as opportunities for institutional learning can be achieved.

Sustainable energy use for smallholder agriculture: a multi-objective programming approach

Smallholder agriculture has made an increasing use of subsidized mechanization and energy inputs to reduce short-term risks in semi-arid conditions in north-west India. However, geographic patterns of production and scale of mechanization are straining resources and increasing the risk of serious degradation of natural resources. In this paper, the possibility of maximizing the revenue and energy returns in the agricultural sector at village level to fulfil the food, fuel, and feed requirements of the village has been attempted. This paper describes the energy flows through four subsystems of smallholder agricultural village: crop system; non-crop land uses; livestock systems; and households in a semi-arid region in India. By employing a multi-objective programming model, changes in agricultural activities required to optimize energy use are estimated so that economic conditions and local energy utilization of the village can be improved and energy import kept to a minimum.