Petr Skalák

Estimating the impact of climate change on the occurrence of selected pests at a high spatial resolution: a novel approach

The present study is focused on the potential occurrence of the Colorado potato beetle ( Leptinotarsa decemlineata , Say 1824), an important potato pest, and the European corn borer ( Ostrinia nubilalis , Hubner 1796), the most important maize pest, during climate change. Estimates of the current potential distribution of both pest species as well as their distribution in the expected climate conditions are based on the CLIMEX model. The study covers central Europe, including Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and parts of Germany, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Switzerland, Ukraine, Slovenia, the northern parts of Serbia, parts of Croatia and northern Italy. The validated model of the pests’ geographical distribution was applied within the domain of the regional climate model (RCM) ALADIN, at a resolution of 10 km. The weather series that was the input for the CLIMEX model was prepared by a weather generator (WG) which was calibrated with the RCM-simulated weather series (for the period of 1961–90). To generate a weather series for two future time periods (2021–50 and 2071–2100), the WG parameters were modified according to 12 climate change scenarios produced by the pattern scaling method. The standardized scenarios derived from three global climate models (HadCM, NCAR-PCM and ECHAM) were scaled by low, middle and high values of global temperature change estimated by the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) model (assuming three combinations of climatic sensitivity and emission scenarios). The results of present study suggest the likely widening of the pests’ habitats and an increase in the number of generations per year. According to the HadCM-high scenario, the area of arable land affected by a third generation per season of Colorado potato beetle in 2050 is c . 45% higher, and by a second generation of the European corn borer is nearly 61% higher, compared to present levels.

CECILIA Regional Climate Simulations for Future Climate: Analysis of Climate Change Signal

Regional climate models (RCMs) are important tools used for downscaling climate simulations from global scale models. In project CECILIA, two RCMs were used to provide climate change information for regions of Central and Eastern Europe. Models RegCM and ALADIN-Climate were employed in downscaling global simulations from ECHAM5 and ARPEGE-CLIMAT under IPCC A1B emission scenario in periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. Climate change signal present in these simulations is consistent with respective driving data, showing similar large-scale features: warming between 0 and 3°C in the first period and 2 and 5°C in the second period with the least warming in northwestern part of the domain increasing in the southeastern direction and small precipitation changes within range of

Projected changes in winter climate in Beskids Mountains during 21st century

. Farda A., Štěpánek P., Zahradníček P., Skalák P, Meitner J. 2017: Projected changes in winter climate in Beskids Mountains during 21st century. – Beskydy, 10 (1, 2): 123–134 We have investigated the future changes of climate conditions during the winter season in the Beskids Mountains. During the 21st century mean winter temperature will increase by 2.0–6.3 °C and winter precipitation will increase by 12.5 – to 17.5 % depending on the scenario. Higher winter temperatures will be reflected in the reduced number of frost days, the number of which may drop by 40 % according to the RCP8.5 scenario. Whilst our study expects general increase in precipitation, higher temperatures will lead to an increased evapotranspiration and also change in the form of precipitation from solid (snow, rime) to liquid (rain, drizzling). Such trends could further propel the unfavorable changes in the water balance budget.

Pilot Actions in European Cities – Prague

This chapter describes results of pilot actions in Prague. Two different pilot areas were selected (Legerova street and Bubny-Holesovice quarter) with different modelling approach. Finally, the Green belt around Prague is studied as well. Different scenarios are tested and their results discussed. The matter of air quality is also analysed.