Petra Steinorth

Valuing variable annuities with guaranteed minimum lifetime withdrawal benefits

Variable annuities with guaranteed minimum lifetime withdrawal benefits (VA/GLWB) offer retirees longevity protection, exposure to equity markets, and access to flexible withdrawals in emergencies. We model how risk-averse retirees optimally withdraw from the products, balancing returns and the embedded longevity protection. Assuming reasonable individual preferences, the resulting cash flow generates a Money’s Worth Ratio of around 0.9 for our stylized VA/GLWB in the post-crisis product, considerably lower than what was offered prior to 2008. Sensitivity analyses with respect to portfolio choice, mortality, fees, and guaranteed withdrawal rates show that MWRs range from 0.80 to 1.0, with the portfolio choice making the biggest difference. For most parameter choices, the utility value of the VA/GLWB exceeds that of a similar mutual fund, but it is less than for a fixed annuity. Interestingly, VA/GLWB withdrawals in early retirement can optimally exceed contract maximum withdrawals, despite the fact that this reduces future withdrawal guarantees.

Health Insurance, Health Savings Accounts and Healthcare Utilization

Assuming symmetric information, we show that a high-deductible health plan (HDHP) combined with a tax-favored health savings account (HSA) induces more savings and less treatment compared with a full coverage plan under reasonable risk preferences. Furthermore, a higher tax subsidy increases savings in any case but decreases medical utilization if and only if treatment expenses are above the deductible. A larger deductible increases savings but does not necessarily decrease healthcare utilization. Whether an HDHP/HSA combination is preferred over a full coverage contract depends on absolute risk aversion. A higher tax advantage increases the attractiveness of an HDHP/HSA combination, whereas the effects of changes in the deductible are ambiguous. The paper shows that a potential regulator needs to carefully set the size of the deductible as only in a certain corridor of the probability of sickness, its effect on aggregate healthcare costs are unambiguously favorable.

Yes, No, Perhaps? - Premium Risk and Guaranteed Renewable Insurance Contracts with Heterogeneous Incomplete Private Information

The article shows that heterogeneous incomplete private information can explain the limited existence of guaranteed renewable health insurance (GR) contracts in an otherwise frictionless markets. We derive a unique equilibrium that can be of the form that either only a portion of the population or none will cover themselves against premium risk with a GR contract. Increased risk aversion, increased premium risk, and first-order stochastic improvements of the distribution of private information increase the likelihood of positive take-up. In case GR contracts are in demand, increased risk aversion and first-order stochastic improvements of the distribution of private information lead to more individuals purchasing the GR contract.

Demand and Selection Effects in Supplemental Health Insurance in Germany

This paper empirically assesses the selection effects and determinants of the demand for supple-mental health insurance that covers hospital and dental benefits in Germany. Our representative dataset provides doctor-diagnosed indicators of the individual’s health status, risk attitude, demand for medical services and insurance purchases in other lines of insurance as well as rich demographic and socioeconomic information. Controlling for a wide range of individual preferences, we find evidence of adverse selection for individuals aged 65 and younger for hospital coverage despite initial individual underwriting by insurers. The reverse is true for individuals older than 65; individuals with supplemental hospital coverage are healthier on average. In addition, insurance affinity and income are the most important drivers of the demand for both types of coverage.

Familiy Transitions and Risk Attitude

We use the German Socio Economic Panel to analyze the impact of life changing events on individuals’ risk tolerance levels over time, which is reported in response to a question on individuals’ willingness to take risks. The dataset follows a representative sample of the German population. We find substantial changes in risk attitudes over time with respect to getting married or separating from a partner, giving birth to a child for the first time, and providing care to a family member. Furthermore, we find that these effects are associated with household structure. In particular, we observe that the risk tolerance of individuals that are referred as the head of household demonstrates more extreme changes associated with life events while having children moderates the changes associated with the dissolution of households.