Phil Goodwin

Elasticities of Road Traffic and Fuel Consumption with Respect to Price and Income: A Review

This paper gives the main results of a literature review of new empirical studies, published since 1990, updating work on the effects of price and income on fuel consumption, traffic levels, and where available other indicators including fuel efficiency and car ownership. The results are broadly consistent with several earlier reviews, though not always with current practice. The work was carried out as one of two parallel ‘blind’ literature reviews, the other being summarized in a companion paper by Graham and Glaister: the results are broadly, though not in every respect, consistent.

Smarter Choices: Assessing the Potential to Achieve Traffic Reduction Using ‘Soft Measures’

Abstract In recent years, there has been a growing interest in a range of transport policy initiatives which are designed to influence people’s travel behaviour away from single‐occupancy car use and towards more benign and efficient options, through a combination of marketing, information, incentives and tailored new services. In transport policy discussions, these are now widely described as ‘soft’ factor interventions or ‘smarter choice’ measures or ‘mobility management’ tools. In 2004, the UK Department for Transport commissioned a major study to examine whether large‐scale programmes of these measures could potentially deliver substantial cuts in car use. The purpose of this article is to clarify the approach taken in the study, the types of evidence reviewed and the overall conclusions reached. In summary, the results suggested that, within approximately ten years, smarter choice measures have the potential to reduce national traffic levels by about 11%, with reductions of up to 21% of peak period urban traffic. Moreover, they represent relatively good value for money, with schemes potentially generating benefit:cost ratios which are in excess of 10:1. The central conclusion of the study was that such measures could play a very significant role in addressing traffic, given the right support and policy context.

‘Peak Car’ — Themes and Issues

This editorial overview of the Special Issue on ‘Peak Car’ previews the seven papers, drawing out common themes and differences. It starts with a brief overview of the emergence and characteristics of the ‘peak car’ idea, including recent research and discussions. It draws out the key themes from each of the seven papers in turn and discusses implications for research and policy. It concludes that there is now little doubt that young peoples’ car use has reduced, but there is still doubt about how younger people will travel as they age, or how the next generation will travel; that location and settlement density effects are very important, meaning that future population distributions will be significant; and that while ‘economic’ factors are still seen to be important, elasticities with respect to price and income are falling, with signs of differential responses by population categories and location. In policy terms, it concludes that with the current level of uncertainty about future car use levels, rather than developing policy based on one forecast, we should be developing policy for a range of plausible scenarios.

Building new roads really does create extra traffic: a response to Prakash et al

A recent article by Prakash et al. (Applied Economics, 33, 1579–85, 2001) asserted that induced travel effects do not occur. This paper is criticized on several grounds. It disregards much of the recent work in this area that has empirically estimated induced travel relationships. The models specified are inappropriate for properly addressing this question, both in their use of road expenditure data (based on a misunderstanding of how this may relate to traffic growth) and specification of a model that does not account for other variables that generally have a large effect on traffic growth (notably population and income growth). The evidence in the literature is summarized and an analysis of UK road expenditure data shows that expenditure is not a good measure of actual road capacity that is built.

Public attitudes to transport: interpreting the evidence

Abstract Public attitudes to transport are complex. This paper summarises selected themes from a large scale evidence review of over 300 studies, with a focus on attitudes to important (and sometimes controversial) aspects of transport policy, namely assessment of the importance of congestion, relative popularity of different policy interventions, expanding provision for international air transport and environmental improvement. Findings include: (1) evidence of majority attitudes that traffic congestion is seen as a national problem but less so for individual respondents and their families; (2) evidence of large majority (but not unanimous) support for improvements to public transport, reductions in speed and restrictions on traffic in residential areas, while road building and road pricing are divisive and controversial; (3) recent deep inconsistencies in evidence cited on attitudes to providing for growth in air transport; and (4) evidence of a gradation of willingness to change behaviour for environmental reasons. A critical evidence gap is on changes in individual attitudes over time, essential for understanding how attitudes form, and for their assessment in informing policy formulation.

Key research themes on travel behavior, lifestyle, and sustainable urban mobility

abstract The concept of lifestyle adds a behavioral component to travel models that used to be dominated by engineering and econometric traditions. This article presents an overview of how lifestyle is defined and measured in transport studies, and how travel behavior is influenced by lifestyles. Lifestyles are often used pragmatically rather than theoretically in the behavior studies. Nevertheless, some important theoretical contributions have been made, especially in sociology by scholars such as Weber, Bourdieu, Ganzeboom, and Schulze who agree on the communicative character of lifestyles: individuals express their social position through specific patterns of behavior, consumption, and leisure. These behavioral patterns are shaped by underlying opinions and orientations, including beliefs, interests, and attitudes. Thus, travel behavior is not simply determined by price, speed, and comfort but is also related to attitudes, status, and preferences. Because lifestyle has many different dimensions, a variety of measurement approaches exists. Nevertheless, most studies suggest that travel behavior is conditioned by specific lifestyles. How lifestyles themselves can be modified to promote more sustainable patterns of transport has not received much attention to date. This article argues that lifestyles need to be considered as dynamic rather than as static and given, and that future research could delve more deeply into this area.

Congestion charging in central London: Lessons learned

At the time of writing, the London newspapers are full of Ken Livingstone?s decision togo ahead with the expansion of the congestion charging zone westwards. The tone of thecommentary is ?a step too far?, or perhaps, ?too fast?. A number of the commentatorshave reinvented themselves as supporters of the first scheme, but are now not surewhether to call the new plan leadership or hubris.Hubris?insolent pride leading to nemesis?however, is not a new accusation againstthe Mayor, and the first thing to say must surely be to acknowledge his authority in thismatter. He has, after all, succeeded not only in implementing an idea which academicsand advisers have spent the best part of half a century discussing, but has done soquickly, fielding great controversy, and successfully. At a time when his once and nowrejoined political party has not been at its high point, he has gained re-election with abetter voting support than his political colleagues, and most political commentators saythat congestion charging has gained him votes, not lost them.So there is a simple proposition about the politics of implementing road pricing: at the moment, the Mayor and Transport for London know more about this than anybody elsedoes.This does not prove they are right, of course, but it does affect the tone of anyassessment, especially in relation to the central question, which is this: is the Londonexperience unique or the signal to much wider implementation?

Some data on the effects of free public transport

Free public transport could have profound short and long term consequences. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the consequences on modal split for the journey to work. Employees of the London Transport Executive (LTE), who receive free use of buses and tubes and a substantial concession on British Rail services, were surveyed and their travel and other characteristics compared with those of a sample of over 20,000 other central London workers who pay the normal prices. It is found that 6.6 percent of those paying normal prices travel to work by car, but only 2.2 percent of the LTE employees do so. The use of car by car owners is less, and the average distance travelled to work by users of each of the public transport modes greater, for the LTE employees, although the overall average journey distance is about the same. Analysis suggests that LTE employees use the car less and public transport more for their journey to work than the other sample even when allowance is made for differences in car ow...

Lost in translation: problems in interpreting business attitudes to transport

Abstract This paper reviews available UK evidence on (private sector) business attitudes to transport. It follows a 2008 review of public attitudes to transport, and provides an important frame of reference for considering business attitudes. Accordingly the current paper includes comparisons between public and business attitudes. There are some prima facie similarities between public and business attitudes in relation to congestion, the order of importance of transport attributes (especially reliability), stated conditions for support of road pricing, public transport, travel plans, telecommunications and some issues of reducing travel. There are, however, some differences also: transport concerns are less ubiquitous, less attention is given to the environmental concerns associated with road building and there is less attention to wider government goals such as equity, health, social welfare and the environment. However, both similarities and differences may be misleading, as research on business attitudes is less disciplined, and there are no well-established theoretical frameworks (such as exist for individual attitudes) for understanding attitudes, when applied to the corporate views of a commercial body. In essence, many of the business attitudes reports are framed as lobbying material yet, paradoxically, there can be considerable ambiguity attached to the meanings of business attitudes, that in turn can be partially attributed to doubts as to whether responses represent individual or corporate attitudes. As a result, it is very difficult, from the existing evidence, to interpret a clear and coherent view or set of views of business on transport issues. The authors suggest some protocols, with the aim of improving research methods that, if implemented, could help improve the credibility and clarity of claims to represent the ‘voice (or, more realistically, voices) of business’.

Economics and the Future of Transport

Economic analysis applied to transport is faced with four crises. They are (a) evidence of a profound (and favorable) shift in long term trends, which should change forecasts of future traffic levels; (b) doubts in the axiom that transport investment necessarily supports economic growth; (c) rethinking the relevance and reliability of long established formal methods of assessing the benefits and costs of transport projects; (d) unfavorable pressures to reduce spending on small, widely spread, local policy initiatives which assist behaviour change and sustainability, in favour of larger ‘flagship’ investments whose impacts may be the opposite of intentions. It is argued that a broad evidence base now supports sustainable transport policies which can reduce car dependence, improve health, and give both environmental and economic benefits.