S Cairns

Smarter Choices: Assessing the Potential to Achieve Traffic Reduction Using ‘Soft Measures’

Abstract In recent years, there has been a growing interest in a range of transport policy initiatives which are designed to influence people’s travel behaviour away from single‐occupancy car use and towards more benign and efficient options, through a combination of marketing, information, incentives and tailored new services. In transport policy discussions, these are now widely described as ‘soft’ factor interventions or ‘smarter choice’ measures or ‘mobility management’ tools. In 2004, the UK Department for Transport commissioned a major study to examine whether large‐scale programmes of these measures could potentially deliver substantial cuts in car use. The purpose of this article is to clarify the approach taken in the study, the types of evidence reviewed and the overall conclusions reached. In summary, the results suggested that, within approximately ten years, smarter choice measures have the potential to reduce national traffic levels by about 11%, with reductions of up to 21% of peak period urban traffic. Moreover, they represent relatively good value for money, with schemes potentially generating benefit:cost ratios which are in excess of 10:1. The central conclusion of the study was that such measures could play a very significant role in addressing traffic, given the right support and policy context.

Delivering supermarket shopping: more or less traffic?

Car travel for food and other household items represents about 40% of all UK shopping trips by car, and about 5% of all car use. In the past 10 years, there has been an extremely rapid growth, albeit from a very small base, of home delivery services for such shopping. As this sector has developed, there has been increasing concern about the growth in delivery traffic, countered by the hope that services are reducing personal car travel. The balance between such tendencies is critical to the overall impact of services. The present paper examines a range of international evidence, including the results of nine modelling assessments. The evidence suggests that with realistic levels of take‐up, a direct substitution of car trips by van trips could reduce vehicle‐km by 70% or more. More complex shopper behavioural responses will occur, but, according to available empirical evidence, overall traffic reductions are still probable. Meanwhile, the benefits of services could be maximized by use of appropriate cost structures, new types of delivery location, less polluting vehicles, greater cooperation or out‐sourcing by retailers, and measures to encourage greater consumption of local produce.

Promises and problems: using GIS to analyse shopping travel

Abstract Geographical Information Systems enable spatial analysis of a scale and nature that has never been possible before. However, their practical utilisation in transport research remains limited. This paper describes the specific experience of using the TransCAD GIS to assess different ways of organising food shopping. It concentrates on the role played by the GIS. In doing so, it aims to highlight many general problems that limit the scope of GIS use, as well as the benefits of such systems, and the broader issues which affect research based on GIS. It concludes with recommendations for greater compatibility, standardisation and reliability for both GIS and GIS data, to encourage their use in the future.

How exposure information can enhance our understanding of child traffic “death leagues”

Objectives: To explore whether population-based fatality rates and measures of traffic exposure can be combined to provide a more comprehensive measure of safety. To illustrate how this could be achieved using surveys from a range of Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. To discuss why exposure is important. Design and setting: Fatality data were obtained from the International Road Traffic and Accident Database and travel data from surveys among government transport administrations in each country. Methods: Comparable exposure data were obtained for children aged 10–14 years from the UK, the USA, Germany, The Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and New Zealand. Fatality rates for children travelling as pedestrians, cyclists and car occupants were calculated based on (1) per head of population and (2) a combination of rate per head population and per kilometre travelled. Results: In this study, exposure-based fatality rates suggest a more polarized distribution rather than a graduated league. The USA and the UK were at the lower end of the table for child pedestrian safety; Germany for car-occupant safety, Sweden and New Zealand performed less well. For cycling, the inclusion of exposure data considerably changes positions within the table. Countries with higher cycling levels like The Netherlands perform better than those with low levels like the UK and New Zealand. Conclusions: Exposure-based fatality rates can help us to understand whether policies reduce exposure or whether they increase safety, given a similar level of exposure. Data need to be harmonized across OECD countries for a better understanding of the risks and links between health and sustainable travel.

Techniques for the inference of mileage rates from MOT data

Abstract Mathematical and computational techniques are developed for the processing and analysis of annual Ministry of Transport roadworthiness (MOT) test data that the UK Department for Transport has placed in the public domain. First, techniques are given that clean erroneous records and a linking procedure is provided that permits the inference of an individual vehicles mileage between consecutive tests. Methods are then developed that analyse aggregate mileage totals, as a function of vehicle age, class and geography. The inference of aggregate mileage rates as a function of time is then considered.

On the Estimation of Temporal Mileage Rates

Mathematical and computational techniques are developed for the analysis of annual MOT (roadworthiness) test data that the UK Department for Transport has placed in the public domain. This paper focusses on the development of a new theory which has the potential to estimate fine-scale temporal variations (e.g., monthly) in vehicle mileage at a population level, that we call the spot rate — derived from coarse-scale (e.g., annual) mileage data at an individual vehicle level. Due to the availability of data, the focus is on the UK situation, but the theory has applications to any data set internationally, where odometer readings of individual vehicles are monitored on an occasional basis. Numerical time-stepping schemes are derived from the theory and are tested on synthetic data to permit comparison with a known ground-truth mileage rate. It is found that for practical applicability, the methods need to pre-process data with smoothing filters (a full investigation of which is beyond the scope of this paper). Finally, we consider first steps in applying the methods directly to the MOT data set and the remaining problems that must be solved for them to become a practical reality.

Mehr Verkehr durch Zustelldienste des Lebensmitteleinzelhandels

Mit dem Bedeutungszuwachs von Zustelldiensten im Einzelhandel mehren sich die Befurchtungen, dass dadurch der Lieferverkehr zunimmt. Dem steht die Hofirrung gegenuber, dass diese Dienstleistungen den motorisierten Individualverkehr mindern helfen. Beide Tendenzen mussen gleichzeitig betrachtet werden, um die Gesamtwirkung von Zustelldiensten einschatzen zu konnen. Der Beitrag gibt einen Uberblick uber den Stand der Forschung zu den verkehrlichen Auswirkungen von Zustelldiensten im Lebensmitteleinzelhandel. Er berichtet uber neue Modelle und bewertet Studien zu den Wirkungen, die entstehen, wenn anstelle des privaten Pkw Lieferfahrzeuge den Warentransport ubernehmen. Erganzend werden empirische Befunde uber das Verhalten von Kunden analysiert, die Lieferdienste im Lebensmitteleinzelhandel nutzen. Schlieslich diskutiert der Beitrag die operationalen Merkmale der Konzepte und identifiziert wichtige Voraussetzungen, um die Zunahme und die Auswirkungen von Lieferverkehr zu verringern und die Vorteile zu maximieren.