Philip Micklin

Desiccation of the Aral Sea: A Water Management Disaster in the Soviet Union

The Aral Sea in the Soviet Union, formerly the worlds fourth largest lake in area, is disappearing. Between 1960 and 1987, its level dropped nearly 13 meters, and its area decreased by 40 percent. Recession has resulted from reduced inflow caused primarily by withdrawals of water for irrigation. Severe environmental problems have resulted. The sea could dry to a residual brine lake. Local water use is being improved and schemes to save parts of the sea have been proposed. Nevertheless, preservation of the Aral may require implementation of the controversial project to divert water from western Siberia into the Aral Sea basin.

The Aral Sea Basin

The Aral Sea basin, located in the central Asian part of the former Soviet Union, is undergoing dramaticallly rapid and intense environmental change. Pervasive human misuse and overuse of its water, land and other critical natural resources have led to severe degredation of key ecological systems. This work analyzes the environmental, human and economic problems that have arisen and presents recommendations for future research need. The primary focus is on the drying of the Aral Sea, but related issues of diminished river flow, land and water pollution, and degredation, ecosystem deterioration and adverse effects on humans are also examined.

The Aral Sea Crisis

The Aral Sea is a terminal lake amidst the deserts of Central Asia. Its size and water balance are fundamentally determined by river inflow and evaporation from its surface. Until the 1960s, the Aral was the world’s fourth largest lake in surface area. Over the past four decades, this water body has rapidly and steadily shrunk as countries in the Aral Sea Basin have increasingly taken inflow from its two influents, the Syr Dar’ya and Amu Dar’ya, for expansion of irrigation. The Aral’s diminution has directly and indirectly led to an array of severe problems in the surrounding region, ranging from degradation of major terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems to deterioration of human health and welfare. National, regional, and international efforts are underway to cope with these, but even their partial alleviation will be enormously costly and require many years. Full restoration of the Aral Sea to its former state is, at best, a remote possibility for the more distant future. However, rehabilitation of portions of it and adjacent areas that would partially restore former ecological functions and economic uses are feasible.

Water in the Aral Sea Basin of Central Asia: Cause of Conflict or Cooperation?

An American specialist on the water resources of the republics of the former USSR, and especially those in Central Asia, reviews the current state of the Aral Sea Basin water resource with respect to supply, consumption, and the legal/institutional framework governing its use. More specifically, he examines water resources and management in the Aral Sea Basin for the purpose of assessing the potential for either interstate conflict or cooperation among the basin states (including Afghanistan and Iran). The author explores actions that could be taken to enhance water availability in the basin and the status of current structures for interstate management of key shared water resources. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: Q15, Q25, R14. 2 figures, 2 tables, 49 references.

The future Aral Sea: hope and despair

The Aral Sea in 1960 was a huge brackish water lake (4th in the world in surface area) lying amidst the deserts of Central Asia. The sea supported a major fishery and functioned as a key regional transportation route. Since 1960, the Aral has undergone rapid desiccation and salinization, overwhelmingly the result of unsustainable expansion of irrigation that dried up its two tributary rivers the Amu Darya and Syr Darya and severely damaged their deltas. The desiccation of the Aral Sea has had severe negative impacts, including, among others, the demise of commercial fishing, devastation of the floral and faunal biodiversity of the native ecosystems of the Syr and Amu deltas, and increased frequency and strength of salt/dust storms. However, efforts have been and are being made to partially restore the sea’s hydrology along with its biodiversity, and economic value. The northern part of the Aral has been separated from the southern part by a dike and dam, leading to a level rise and lower salinity. This allowed native fishes to return from the rivers and revitalized the fishing industry. Partial preservation of the Western Basin of the southern Aral Sea may be possible, but these plans need much further environmental and economic analysis. This paper, mainly utilizing hydrologic and other data as input to spreadsheet (Microsoft Excel)-based hydrologic and salinity models, examines the current efforts to restore the Aral and looks at several future scenarios of the Sea. It also delineates the most important lessons of the Aral Sea’s drying.

The Aral Sea Crisis and Its Future: An Assessment in 2006

An American geographer and noted international authority on water management problems in Russia and Central Asia presents an account of an expedition, in late 2005 (under the sponsorship of the National Geographic Society) to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, focused on the Aral Sea. The steadily drying inland sea, with a surface area of 67,500 km2 in 1960, had split into two parts and shrunk to 17,380 km2 in 2006. The paper provides an up-to-date overview of the crisis and presents an optimistic scenario of the seas future, noting development of economic activities (particularly fisheries) in its surrounding settlements. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O13, Q15, Q25. 6 figures, 1 table, 55 references.

PANEL ON NATIONALISM IN THE USSR: ENVIRONMENTAL AND TERRITORIAL ASPECTS

A panel of geographers, demographers, and political scientists discusses a broad range of issues related to the resurgence of nationalism in the USSR and its relationship to environmental protest and territorial disputes: the emergence of nationality politics; differential rates of nationality population growth and urbanization; various conceptions of (and levels of autonomy within) ethnic homelands; the spatial pattern of actual and potential territorial claims; linkages between environmentalism and nationalism (with an emphasis on the Baltic and Central Asian republics); parallels and differences between the USSR and other countries; and consequences of efforts to implement republic-level economic autonomy and khozraschet.

THE STATUS OF THE SOVIET UNION'S NORTH-SOUTH WATER TRANSFER PROJECTS BEFORE THEIR ABANDONMENT IN 1985-86

In 1985-86, the Soviet Union shelved two major north-south water transfer projects that had been a subject of study and debate for decades. One was the ambitious project to transfer water from the West Siberian Plain southward through Kazakhstan to the deserts of Central Asia; the other was a project to transfer water from northern European Russia southward into the Volga River basin. The Siberia-Central Asia project was the first to be shelved, and this decision became evident in November 1985, when it was not included in the preliminary draft of the guidelines for the new five-year plan 1986-90. The European transfer project was next to be abandoned; after having been included in the preliminary draft, this project was dropped from the final version of the draft made public in March 1986. Philip P. Micklin, who is one of the foremost Western experts on the Soviet water transfer projects, reviews the status of the water diversion plan and the arguments pro and con before the decision to abandon these pro...

Reflections on Environmentalism and the River Diversion Projects

In a companion paper to “Environmentalism in the USSR: The Opposition to the River Diversion Projects,” two geographers survey the current status of water transfer research after cancellation of the European and Siberian diversion projects and offer a different perspective on the debates leading to that cancellation. Implications of a demand-side approach to Centra! Asian water management problems are then assessed in light of (a) contradictory objectives of expanding irrigated hectarage and mitigating environmental deterioration in the Aral basin and (b) the problematic nature of projected water savings and costs involved in their realization. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124, 720.

International and Regional Responses to the Aral Crisis: An Overview of Efforts and Accomplishments

An authoritative U.S. analyst of Central Asian water management problems, and former advisor to the Uzbek government on water management issues, surveys the nature and effectiveness of international and regional programs to mitigate the Aral Sea crisis. After first reviewing the history and magnitude of the crisis, the author assesses international and regional assistance programs during the late Soviet period and subsequent initial years of independence for the Central Asian republics within the Aral Basin. A concluding section includes policy recommendations based on the authors extensive experience in the field and familiarity with many of the principal organizations involved. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F35, Q15, Q25. 2 figures, 1 table, 32 references.