Philip S. Rosenberg

Human Papillomavirus and Rising Oropharyngeal Cancer Incidence in the United States

PURPOSE Recent increases in incidence and survival of oropharyngeal cancers in the United States have been attributed to human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, but empirical evidence is lacking. PATIENTS AND METHODS HPV status was determined for all 271 oropharyngeal cancers (1984-2004) collected by the three population-based cancer registries in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Residual Tissue Repositories Program by using polymerase chain reaction and genotyping (Inno-LiPA), HPV16 viral load, and HPV16 mRNA expression. Trends in HPV prevalence across four calendar periods were estimated by using logistic regression. Observed HPV prevalence was reweighted to all oropharyngeal cancers within the cancer registries to account for nonrandom selection and to calculate incidence trends. Survival of HPV-positive and HPV-negative patients was compared by using Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox regression analyses. RESULTS HPV prevalence in oropharyngeal cancers significantly increased over calendar time regardless of HPV detection assay (P trend < .05). For example, HPV prevalence by Inno-LiPA increased from 16.3% during 1984 to 1989 to 71.7% during 2000 to 2004. Median survival was significantly longer for HPV-positive than for HPV-negative patients (131 v 20 months; log-rank P < .001; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.21 to 0.46). Survival significantly increased across calendar periods for HPV-positive (P = .003) but not for HPV-negative patients (P = .18). Population-level incidence of HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancers increased by 225% (95% CI, 208% to 242%) from 1988 to 2004 (from 0.8 per 100,000 to 2.6 per 100,000), and incidence for HPV-negative cancers declined by 50% (95% CI, 47% to 53%; from 2.0 per 100,000 to 1.0 per 100,000). If recent incidence trends continue, the annual number of HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancers is expected to surpass the annual number of cervical cancers by the year 2020. CONCLUSION Increases in the population-level incidence and survival of oropharyngeal cancers in the United States since 1984 are caused by HPV infection.

A Prospective Study of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Infection and the Development of AIDS in Subjects with Hemophilia

We evaluated a multicenter cohort of 1219 subjects with hemophilia or related disorders prospectively, focusing on 319 subjects with documented dates of seroconversion to human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). The incidence rate of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) after seroconversion was 2.67 per 100 person-years and was directly related to age (from 0.83 in persons 1 to 11 years old up to 5.66 in persons 35 to 70 years old; Ptrend = 0.00003). The annual incidence of AIDS ranged from zero during the first year after seroconversion to 7 percent during the eighth year, with eight-year cumulative rates (+/- SE) of 13.3 +/- 5.3 percent for ages 1 to 17, 26.8 +/- 6.4 percent for ages 18 to 34, and 43.7 +/- 16.4 percent for ages 35 to 70. Serial immunologic and virologic markers (total numbers of CD4 lymphocytes, presence of serum interferon or HIV-1 p24 antigen, and low or absent serum levels of anti-p24 or anti-gp120) predicted a high risk for the subsequent development of AIDS. Adults 35 to 70 years old had a higher incidence of low CD4 counts than younger subjects (P less than or equal to 0.005), whereas adolescents had a low rate of anti-p24 loss (P = 0.0007) and subjects 1 to 17 years old had a lower incidence of AIDS after loss of anti-p24 (P = 0.03). These findings not only demonstrate that the risk of AIDS is related directly to age but also suggest that older adults are disproportionately affected during the earlier phases of HIV disease, that adolescents may have a low replication rate of HIV, and that children and adolescents may tolerate severe immunodeficiency better because they have fewer other infections or because of some unmeasured, age-dependent cofactor or immune alteration in the later phase of HIV disease.

Worldwide Trends in Incidence Rates for Oral Cavity and Oropharyngeal Cancers

PURPOSE Human papillomavirus (HPV) has been identified as the cause of the increasing oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) incidence in some countries. To investigate whether this represents a global phenomenon, we evaluated incidence trends for OPCs and oral cavity cancers (OCCs) in 23 countries across four continents. METHODS We used data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database Volumes VI to IX (years 1983 to 2002). Using age-period-cohort modeling, incidence trends for OPCs were compared with those of OCCs and lung cancers to delineate the potential role of HPV vis-à-vis smoking on incidence trends. Analyses were country specific and sex specific. RESULTS OPC incidence significantly increased during 1983 to 2002 predominantly in economically developed countries. Among men, OPC incidence significantly increased in the United States, Australia, Canada, Japan, and Slovakia, despite nonsignificant or significantly decreasing incidence of OCCs. In contrast, among women, in all countries with increasing OPC incidence (Denmark, Estonia, France, the Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Switzerland, and United Kingdom), there was a concomitant increase in incidence of OCCs. Although increasing OPC incidence among men was accompanied by decreasing lung cancer incidence, increasing incidence among women was generally accompanied by increasing lung cancer incidence. The magnitude of increase in OPC incidence among men was significantly higher at younger ages (< 60 years) than older ages in the United States, Australia, Canada, Slovakia, Denmark, and United Kingdom. CONCLUSION OPC incidence significantly increased during 1983 to 2002 predominantly in developed countries and at younger ages. These results underscore a potential role for HPV infection on increasing OPC incidence, particularly among men.

Cancer in dyskeratosis congenita

Dyskeratosis congenita (DC) is a rare inherited bone marrow failure syndrome. The spectrum of cancer susceptibility in this disorder of telomere biology has not been described. There were more than 500 cases of DC reported in the literature from 1910 to 2008; the National Cancer Institute (NCI) prospective DC cohort enrolled 50 cases from 2002 to 2007. Sixty cancers were reported in 52 literature cases, while 7 occurred among patients in the NCI DC cohort. The 2 cohorts were comparable in their median overall survival (42 years) and cumulative incidence of cancer (40%-50% by age 50 years). The most frequent solid tumors were head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (40% of patients in either cohort), followed by skin and anorectal cancer. The ratio of observed to expected cancers (O/E ratio) in the NCI cohort was 11-fold compared with the general population (P < .05). Significantly elevated O/E ratios were 1154 for tongue cancer and 195 for acute myeloid leukemia. Survival after bone marrow transplantation for aplastic anemia or leukemia was poor in both cohorts. The frequency and types of cancer in DC are surpassed only by those in Fanconi anemia (FA), indicating that FA and DC have similarly high risks of adverse hematologic and neoplastic events, and patients with these diseases should be counseled and monitored similarly.

Non‐Hodgkin's lymphoma among people with AIDS: Incidence, presentation and public health burden

We describe the anatomic and histologic presentation and prognosis of non‐Hodgkins lymphoma (NHL) among people with AIDS (PWA) and determine their contribution to the NHL burden. We linked AIDS and cancer registries in selected areas of the United States and compared NHL sites and histologies in PWA and non‐PWA, after adjusting for age, sex and ethnicity. Among 51,033 PWA, we found 2,156 cases of NHL (4.3%). Half of NHL cases occurring post‐AIDS were not reported to AIDS registries. NHL was part of an AIDS‐defining condition for 3.2% of all PWA; the relative risk of NHL with 3.5 years of another AIDS diagnosis was 165‐fold compared to non‐PWA within the cancer surveillance system. Of NHLs, 39% were high grade (vs. 12% among non‐PWA), 60% were nodal (vs. 74% among non‐PWA) and 15% had brain primaries (vs. 1% among non‐PWA). Excluding brain sites, extranodal sites were still 20% more common than expected. Relative risk was elevated for all histologic types, with the risk ranging from 652‐fold for high‐grade diffuse immunoblastic tumors and 261‐fold for Burkitts lymphomas to 113 for intermediate‐grade lymphoma to 14‐fold for low‐grade lymphoma. Survival among PWA with NHL was poor, and tumor grade had little impact. In high‐risk AIDS areas, AIDS‐related NHLs constitute a major share of the NHL burden. We conclude that NHL risk is considerably under‐estimated in AIDS registry data. The major differences between PWA and non‐PWA were the high frequency of brain lymphoma and the increase in high‐grade lymphomas in PWA. However, the grade of NHL did not influence the prognosis among PWA with lymphoma. The increasing risk of NHL in PWA has contributed substantially to the general increase in NHL rates in the United States since 1981. Int. J. Cancer 73:645–650, 1997.

Pathway analysis by adaptive combination of P-values†

It is increasingly recognized that pathway analyses—a joint test of association between the outcome and a group of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within a biological pathway—could potentially complement single‐SNP analysis and provide additional insights for the genetic architecture of complex diseases. Building upon existing P‐value combining methods, we propose a class of highly flexible pathway analysis approaches based on an adaptive rank truncated product statistic that can effectively combine evidence of associations over different SNPs and genes within a pathway. The statistical significance of the pathway‐level test statistics is evaluated using a highly efficient permutation algorithm that remains computationally feasible irrespective of the size of the pathway and complexity of the underlying test statistics for summarizing SNP‐ and gene‐level associations. We demonstrate through simulation studies that a gene‐based analysis that treats the underlying genes, as opposed to the underlying SNPs, as the basic units for hypothesis testing, is a very robust and powerful approach to pathway‐based association testing. We also illustrate the advantage of the proposed methods using a study of the association between the nicotinic receptor pathway and cigarette smoking behaviors. Genet. Epidemiol. 33:700–709, 2009. Published 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.

Age-Specific Trends in Incidence of Noncardia Gastric Cancer in US Adults

CONTEXT For the last 50 years, overall age-standardized incidence rates for noncardia gastric cancer have steadily declined in most populations. However, overall rates are summary measures that may obscure important age-specific trends. OBJECTIVE To examine effects of age at diagnosis on noncardia gastric cancer incidence trends in the United States. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Descriptive study with age-period-cohort analysis of cancer registration data from the National Cancer Institutes Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, which covers approximately 26% of the US population. From 1977 through 2006, there were 83,225 adults with incident primary gastric cancer, including 39,003 noncardia cases. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Overall and age-specific incidence rates, adjusted for period and cohort effects using age-period-cohort models. Results were stratified by race, sex, and socioeconomic status. RESULTS Overall age-standardized annual incidence per 100,000 population declined during the study period from 5.9 (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.7-6.1) to 4.0 (95% CI, 3.9-4.1) in whites, from 13.7 (95% CI, 12.5-14.9) to 9.5 (95% CI, 9.1-10.0) in blacks, and from 17.8 (95% CI, 16.1-19.4) to 11.7 (95% CI, 11.2-12.1) in other races. Age-specific trends among whites varied significantly between older and younger age groups (P < .001 for interaction by age): incidence per 100,000 declined significantly from 19.8 (95% CI, 19.0-20.6) to 12.8 (95% CI, 12.5-13.1) for ages 60 to 84 years and from 2.6 (95% CI, 2.4-2.8) to 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.1) for ages 40 to 59 years but increased significantly from 0.27 (95% CI, 0.19-0.35) to 0.45 (95% CI, 0.39-0.50) for ages 25 to 39 years. Conversely, rates for all age groups declined or were stable among blacks and other races. Age-period-cohort analysis confirmed a significant increase in whites among younger cohorts born since 1952 (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS From 1977 through 2006, the incidence rate for noncardia gastric cancer declined among all race and age groups except for whites aged 25 to 39 years, for whom it increased. Additional surveillance and analytical studies are warranted to identify risk factors that may explain this unfavorable trend.

Male Breast Cancer: A Population-Based Comparison With Female Breast Cancer

PURPOSE Because of its rarity, male breast cancer is often compared with female breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS To compare and contrast male and female breast cancers, we obtained case and population data from the National Cancer Institutes Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program for breast cancers diagnosed from 1973 through 2005. Standard descriptive epidemiology was supplemented with age-period-cohort models and breast cancer survival analyses. RESULTS Of all breast cancers, men with breast cancer make up less than 1%. Male compared with female breast cancers occurred later in life with higher stage, lower grade, and more estrogen receptor-positive tumors. Recent breast cancer incidence and mortality rates declined over time for men and women, but these trends were greater for women than for men. Comparing patients diagnosed from 1996 through 2005 versus 1976 through 1985, and adjusting for age, stage, and grade, cause-specific hazard rates for breast cancer death declined by 28% among men (P = .03) and by 42% among women (P approximately 0). CONCLUSION There were three intriguing results. Age-specific incidence patterns showed that the biology of male breast cancer resembled that of late-onset female breast cancer. Similar breast cancer incidence trends among men and women suggested that there are common breast cancer risk factors that affect both sexes, especially estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer. Finally, breast cancer mortality and survival rates have improved significantly over time for both male and female breast cancer, but progress for men has lagged behind that for women.

Malignancies and survival patterns in the National Cancer Institute inherited bone marrow failure syndromes cohort study.

Fanconi anaemia (FA), dyskeratosis congenita (DC), Diamond‐Blackfan anaemia (DBA), and Shwachman‐Diamond syndrome (SDS) comprise major inherited bone marrow failure syndromes (IBMFS). Adverse events include severe bone marrow failure (BMF), myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), acute myeloid leukaemia (AML), and solid tumours (ST). The natural history of FA is well characterised; hazard rates in the other syndromes have not yet been quantified. An open cohort was established at the National Cancer Institute (NCI) in 2002. Patients enrolled prior to December, 2007 were followed up to December, 2008. Diagnoses were confirmed with standard tests. Age‐associated risks of adverse events were calculated. Most patients in each syndrome survived to young adulthood. Patients with FA had earlier onset of cancers, need for stem cell transplant, and death; followed by DC; DBA and SDS were mildest. While FA and DC patients had markedly increased risks of cancer, AML and MDS, there were no cases of leukaemia in DBA or SDS patients. The NCI cohort provides the first direct quantitative comparison of timing and magnitude of cancer risk in the IBMFS. The findings demonstrate that both FA and DC are major cancer susceptibility syndromes. The IBMFS, historically considered paediatric disorders, have important management implications for physicians treating adult patients.

Breast Cancer Mortality Trends in the United States According to Estrogen Receptor Status and Age at Diagnosis

PURPOSE Since 1990, overall breast cancer mortality rates in the United States decreased 24%. This decline has been attributed to mammography screening and adjuvant systemic therapy. However, the efficacy of these modalities may depend on estrogen receptor (ER) expression and age. We therefore examined breast cancer mortality trends in the United States according to ER status and age. METHODS Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program (1990-2003), we calculated trends in incidence-based mortality (IBM), annual hazard rates for breast cancer deaths after diagnosis, and relative hazard rates for women with ER-positive and ER-negative tumors. Relative hazard rates were assessed with Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for stage and grade, and stratified by age at diagnosis. RESULTS During the study period, IBM and annual hazard rates for breast cancer deaths decreased among women with ER-positive and ER-negative tumors, although declines were greater for those with ER-positive tumors. Among women younger than 70 years, relative hazard rates declined 38% for those with ER-positive tumors versus 19% for those with ER-negative tumors. Among women 70 years or older, relative hazard rates declined 14% for those with ER-positive tumors versus no significant decline for those with ER-negative tumors. CONCLUSION In the United States, breast cancer mortality rates have declined among women with ER-positive and ER-negative tumors, with greater declines among younger women and those with ER-positive tumors. Although mortality in all groups remains unacceptably high, additional emphasis should be placed on improving outcomes of breast cancer patients older than 70 years and those of all ages with ER-negative tumors.