Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul

Modeling with Limited Data: Estimating Potential Growth in Cambodia

This paper proposes a framework to analyze long-term potential growth that combines a simple quantitative model with an investigative approach of ‘growth diagnostics’. The framework is used to forecast potential growth for Cambodia, and to conduct simulations about the main drivers of growth in that country. The main result is that Cambodia compares less favorably against other lower-income Asian economies in terms of its investment rate, which in turn is constrained by the poor quality of its infrastructure. Bridging this gap can lift Cambodia’s potential growth by more than one percentage point.

The Evolution of Asian Financial Linkages; Key Determinants and the Role of Policy

This paper examines how Asian financial linkages with systemic economies have changed over time. After developing a factor model, it estimates Asian financial sensitivities to systemic economies, and then seeks to uncover their key determinants, which include trade and financial linkages, as well as policies. In line with Asias growing role in the global economy - including through deeper financial integration - regional financial markets have become more sensitive to systemic economies. Asian financial sensitivities to systemic economies exhibit cyclical fluctuations, and reached historically high levels during the latest global financial crisis of 2008-09. While macroeconomic policy frameworks have helped Asian economies cope well with market turbulence, they cannot completely insulate Asian financial markets against major global financial shocks.