Prabir K. Patra

TransCom model simulations of hourly atmospheric CO2: Analysis of synoptic-scale variations for the period 2002-2003

The ability to reliably estimate CO2 fluxes from current in situ atmospheric CO2 measurements and future satellite CO2 measurements is dependent on transport model performance at synoptic and shorter timescales. The TransCom continuous experiment was designed to evaluate the performance of forward transport model simulations at hourly, daily, and synoptic timescales, and we focus on the latter two in this paper. Twenty-five transport models or model variants submitted hourly time series of nine predetermined tracers (seven for CO2) at 280 locations. We extracted synoptic-scale variability from daily averaged CO2 time series using a digital filter and analyzed the results by comparing them to atmospheric measurements at 35 locations. The correlations between modeled and observed synoptic CO2 variabilities were almost always largest with zero time lag and statistically significant for most models and most locations. Generally, the model results using diurnally varying land fluxes were closer to the observations compared to those obtained using monthly mean or daily average fluxes, and winter was often better simulated than summer. Model results at higher spatial resolution compared better with observations, mostly because these models were able to sample closer to the measurement site location. The amplitude and correlation of model-data variability is strongly model and season dependent. Overall similarity in modeled synoptic CO2 variability suggests that the first-order transport mechanisms are fairly well parameterized in the models, and no clear distinction was found between the meteorological analyses in capturing the synoptic-scale dynamics.

Enhanced seasonal exchange of CO2 by northern ecosystems since 1960.

Downs and Ups Every spring, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere decreases as terrestrial vegetation grows, and every fall, CO2 rises as vegetation dies and rots. Climate change has destabilized the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 such that Graven et al. (p. 1085, published online 8 August; see the Perspective by Fung) have found that the amplitude of the seasonal cycle has exceeded 50% at some latitudes. The only way to explain this increase is if extratropical land ecosystems are growing and shrinking more than they did half a century ago, as a result of changes in the structure and composition of northern ecosystems. The amplitude of the seasonal cycle of carbon dioxide in high northern latitudes has increased by 50% since 1960. [Also see Perspective by Fung] Seasonal variations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Northern Hemisphere have increased since the 1950s, but sparse observations have prevented a clear assessment of the patterns of long-term change and the underlying mechanisms. We compare recent aircraft-based observations of CO2 above the North Pacific and Arctic Oceans to earlier data from 1958 to 1961 and find that the seasonal amplitude at altitudes of 3 to 6 km increased by 50% for 45° to 90°N but by less than 25% for 10° to 45°N. An increase of 30 to 60% in the seasonal exchange of CO2 by northern extratropical land ecosystems, focused on boreal forests, is implicated, substantially more than simulated by current land ecosystem models. The observations appear to signal large ecological changes in northern forests and a major shift in the global carbon cycle.

TransCom model simulations of hourly atmospheric CO2 : experimental overview and diurnal cycle results for 2002

[1] A forward atmospheric transport modeling experiment has been coordinated by the TransCom group to investigate synoptic and diurnal variations in CO2. Model simulations were run for biospheric, fossil, and air-sea exchange of CO2 and for SF6 and radon for 2000-2003. Twenty-five models or model variants participated in the comparison. Hourly concentration time series were submitted for 280 sites along with vertical profiles, fluxes, and meteorological variables at 100 sites. The submitted results have been analyzed for diurnal variations and are compared with observed CO2 in 2002. Mean summer diurnal cycles vary widely in amplitude across models. The choice of sampling location and model level account for part of the spread suggesting that representation errors in these types of models are potentially large. Despite the model spread, most models simulate the relative variation in diurnal amplitude between sites reasonably well. The modeled diurnal amplitude only shows a weak relationship with vertical resolution across models; differences in near-surface transport simulation appear to play a major role. Examples are also presented where there is evidence that the models show useful skill in simulating seasonal and synoptic changes in diurnal amplitude.

Role of biomass burning and climate anomalies for land‐atmosphere carbon fluxes based on inverse modeling of atmospheric CO2

lower than those estimated from TDI model results, by about 1.0 Pg-C yr � 1 for the periods and regions of intense fire. The correlation and principal component analyses suggest that changes in meteorology (i.e., rainfall and air temperature) associated with the

Statistics of atmospheric correlations

For a large class of quantum systems, the statistical properties of their spectrum show remarkable agreement with random matrix predictions. Recent advances show that the scope of random matrix theory is much wider. In this work, we show that the random matrix approach can be beneficially applied to a completely different classical domain, namely, to the empirical correlation matrices obtained from the analysis of the basic atmospheric parameters that characterize the state of atmosphere. We show that the spectrum of atmospheric correlation matrices satisfy the random matrix prescription. In particular, the eigenmodes of the atmospheric empirical correlation matrices that have physical significance are marked by deviations from the eigenvector distribution.

The carbon budget of South Asia

The source and sinks of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) due to anthropogenic and natural biospheric activities were estimated for the South Asian region (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka). Flux estimates were based on top-down methods that use inversions of atmospheric data, and bottom-up methods that use field observations, satellite data, and terrestrial ecosystem models. Based on atmospheric CO 2 inversions, the net biospheric CO 2 flux in South Asia (equivalent to the Net Biome Productivity, NBP) was a sink, estimated at −104 ± 150 Tg C yr −1 during 2007–2008. Based on the bottom-up approach, the net biospheric CO 2 flux is estimated to be −191 ± 193 Tg C yr −1 during the period of 2000–2009. This last net flux results from the following flux components: (1) the Net Ecosystem Productivity, NEP (net primary production minus heterotrophic respiration) of −220 ± 186 Tg C yr −1 (2) the annual net carbon flux from land-use change of −14 ± 50 Tg C yr −1 , which resulted from a sink of −16 Tg C yr −1 due to the establishment of tree plantations and wood harvest, and a source of 2 Tg C yr −1 due to the expansion of croplands; (3) the riverine export flux from terrestrial ecosystems to the coastal oceans of +42.9 Tg C yr −1 ; and (4) the net CO 2 emission due to biomass burning of +44.1 ± 13.7 Tg C yr −1 . Including the emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels of 444 Tg C yr −1 for the 2000s, we estimate a net CO 2 land–atmosphere flux of 297 Tg C yr −1 . In addition to CO 2 , a fraction of the sequestered carbon in terrestrial ecosystems is released to the atmosphere as CH 4 . Based on bottom-up and top-down estimates, and chemistry-transport modeling, we estimate that 37 ± 3.7 Tg C yr −1 were released to atmosphere from South Asia during the 2000s. Taking all CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes together, our best estimate of the net land–atmosphere CO 2 -equivalent flux is a net source of 334 Tg C yr −1 for the South Asian region during the 2000s. If CH 4 emissions are weighted by radiative forcing of molecular CH 4 , the total CO 2 -equivalent flux increases to 1148 Tg C yr −1 suggesting there is great potential of reducing CH 4 emissions for stabilizing greenhouse gases concentrations.

Atmospheric deposition and surface stratification as controls of contrasting chlorophyll abundance in the North Indian Ocean

Intense upwelling during summer and convection in winter are believed to drive higher biological productivity in the Arabian Sea than in the Bay of Bengal. Although the Arabian Sea receives substantial atmospheric deposition of dust aerosols, its role in biological activity is unknown. We have analyzed chlorophyll-a (SeaWiFS), absorbing aerosol index (TOMS), surface winds (NCEP), and modeled dust deposition and SST (OI) data during two distinct seasons June-August (JJA, summer months) and October-December (OND, winter months) for the period 1997-2004. Climatologies of physicochemical properties have been developed from World Ocean Atlas 2001 (WOA01). Our results suggest that despite the strong vertical supply of nutrients in the western and central Arabian Sea regions, maximal chlorophyll-a was limited to the former region in both JJA and OND periods, suggesting the importance of atmospherically transported substances in determining chlorophyll abundance in the North Indian Ocean. Time-averages (1997-2004) revealed chlorophyll abundances in northwestern regions are larger than in other regions of the respective basins. The NW regions of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal have exhibited contrasting chlorophyll distribution patterns during El Nino years (1997-1998 and 2002-2003; positive SST anomalies); decreased and increased chlorophyll contents in respective regions. Following the passage of tropical cyclones, SeaWiFS records depicted large areas in the Arabian Sea to experience intensified chlorophyll production with strong wind speeds of 55-65 knots whereas its enhanced production occurred only in small patches even under the influence of Orissa Super Cyclone of October 1999 (wind speed up to 140 knots) due to strong stratification.

Distribution of methane in the tropical upper troposphere measured by CARIBIC and CONTRAIL aircraft

Received 29 May 2012; revised 8 August 2012; accepted 16 August 2012; published 4 October 2012. [1] We investigate the upper tropospheric distribution of methane (CH4) at low latitudes based on the analysis of air samples collected from aboard passenger aircraft. The distribution of CH4 exhibits spatial and seasonal differences, such as the pronounced seasonal cycles over tropical Asia and elevated mixing ratios over central Africa. Over Africa, the correlations of methane, ethane, and acetylene with carbon monoxide indicate that these high mixing ratios originate from biomass burning as well as from biogenic sources. Upper tropospheric mixing ratios of CH4were modeled using a chemistry transport model. The simulation captures the large-scale features of the distributions along different flight routes, but discrepancies occur in some regions. Over Africa, where emissions are not well constrained, the model predicts a too steep interhemispheric gradient. During summer, efficient convective vertical transport and enhanced emissions give rise to a large-scale CH4 maximum in the upper troposphere over subtropical Asia. This seasonal (monsoonal) cycle is analyzed with a tagged tracer simulation. The model confirms that in this region convection links upper tropospheric mixing ratios to regional sources on the Indian subcontinent, subtropical East Asia, and Southeast Asia. This type of aircraft data can therefore provide information about surface fluxes.

Seasonal variability in distribution and fluxes of methane in the Arabian Sea

Methane, a biogeochemically important gas in Earth/s atmosphere was measured in the water column and air in the Arabian Sea in different seasons, viz., northeast monsoon, intermonsoon, and southwest monsoon, as part of the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (India). These observations record its distributions in the water column as well as its fluxes and their seasonal variations. Methane is mainly produced in subsurface water, and its supersaturation occurs in the upper 400 m. The CH 4 peak concentration and its location vary with latitude and season. Below about 400 m, seawater CH 4 concentrations, in general, are observed to be undersaturated, suggesting its consumption. Production of CH 4 in oxygenated water appears to be under biological control; however, the peak in deep anoxic water does not show any particular relation with any single chemical, biological, or physical variable and rather suggests it to be maintained by the quasi-horizontal transport. The average surface supersaturations are found to be 140 ± 37, 173 ± 54, and 200 ± 74 in the northeast monsoon, intermonsoon, and southwest monsoon, respectively. Wind speed dependent flux estimation reveals the coastal region of the Arabian Sea to be a stronger source of methane compared to the open oceanic region, although a zonal transect along 10°N also shows higher flux of methane. The effects of the findlater Jet induced downwelling on the distributions of CH 4 in the near surface water as well as on its emissions have been discussed. Its annual emission rate of 0.03-0.05 Tg CH 4 yr -1 from the Arabian Sea is nearly the same as that observed from the global oceans.

Analysis of atmospheric CO2 growth rates at Mauna Loa using CO2 fluxes derived from an inverse model

Carbon dioxide (CO2) growth rates are estimated for a period 1959–2004 from atmospheric CO2 measurements at Mauna Loa by the Scripps Institute of Oceanography. Only during a few short periods, 1965–1966, 1972–1973, 1987–1988 and 1997–1998, in the last 45 yr have growth rates of atmospheric CO2 been of a similar magnitude or higher than that due to the total emission from burning of fossil fuels. Using results from a time-dependent inverse (TDI) model, based on observations of atmospheric CO2 at 87 stations, we establish that El Nino-induced climate variations in the tropics and large-scale forest fires in the boreal regions are the main causes of anomalous growth rates of atmospheric CO2. The high growth rate of 2.8 ppm yr−1 in 2002 can be predicted fairly successfully by using the correlations between (1) the peak-to-trough amplitudes in the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index and tropical flux anomaly, and (2) anomalies in CO2 flux and area burned by fire from the boreal regions. We suggest that the large interannual changes in CO2 growth rates can mostly be explained by natural climate variability. Our analysis also shows that the decadal average growth rate, linked primarily to human activity, has fluctuated around an all-time high value of ~1.5 ppm yr−1 over the past 20 yr. A statistical model analysis is performed to identify the regions which have the maximum influence on the observed growth rate anomaly at Mauna Loa.