Shamil Maksyutov

TransCom 3 inversion intercomparison: Impact of transport model errors on the interannual variability of regional CO2 fluxes, 1988–2003

Monthly CO2 fluxes are estimated across 1988–2003 for 22 emission regions using data from 78 CO2 measurement sites. The same inversion (method, priors, data) is performed with 13 different atmospheric transport models, and the spread in the results is taken as a measure of transport model error. Interannual variability (IAV) in the winds is not modeled, so any IAV in the measurements is attributed to IAV in the fluxes. When both this transport error and the random estimation errors are considered, the flux IAV obtained is statistically significant at P ≤ 0.05 when the fluxes are grouped into land and ocean components for three broad latitude bands, but is much less so when grouped into continents and basins. The transport errors have the largest impact in the extratropical northern latitudes. A third of the 22 emission regions have significant IAV, including the Tropical East Pacific (with physically plausible uptake/release across the 1997–2000 El Nino/La Nina) and Tropical Asia (with strong release in 1997/1998 coinciding with large-scale fires there). Most of the global IAV is attributed robustly to the tropical/southern land biosphere, including both the large release during the 1997/1998 El Nino and the post-Pinatubo uptake.

Transcom 3 inversion intercomparison: Model mean results for the estimation of seasonal carbon sources and sinks

[1] The TransCom 3 experiment was begun to explore the estimation of carbon sources and sinks via the inversion of simulated tracer transport. We build upon previous TransCom work by presenting the seasonal inverse results which provide estimates of carbon flux for 11 land and 11 ocean regions using 12 atmospheric transport models. The monthly fluxes represent the mean seasonal cycle for the 1992 to 1996 time period. The spread among the model results is larger than the average of their estimated flux uncertainty in the northern extratropics and vice versa in the tropical regions. In the northern land regions, the model spread is largest during the growing season. Compared to a seasonally balanced biosphere prior flux generated by the CASA model, we find significant changes to the carbon exchange in the European region with greater growing season net uptake which persists into the fall months. Both Boreal North America and Boreal Asia show lessened net uptake at the onset of the growing season with Boreal Asia also exhibiting greater peak growing season net uptake. Temperate Asia shows a dramatic springward shift in the peak timing of growing season net uptake relative to the neutral CASA flux while Temperate North America exhibits a broad flattening of the seasonal cycle. In most of the ocean regions, the inverse fluxes exhibit much greater seasonality than that implied by the DpCO2 derived fluxes though this may be due, in part, to misallocation of adjacent land flux. In the Southern Ocean, the austral spring and fall exhibits much less carbon uptake than implied by DpCO2 derived fluxes. Sensitivity testing indicates that the inverse estimates are not overly influenced by the prior flux choices. Considerable agreement exists between the model mean, annual mean results of this study and that of the previously published TransCom annual mean inversion. The differences that do exist are in poorly constrained regions and tend to exhibit compensatory fluxes in order to match the global mass constraint. The differences between the estimated fluxes and the prior model over the northern land regions could be due to the prior model respiration response to temperature. Significant phase differences, such as that in the Temperate Asia region, may be due to the limited observations for that region. Finally, differences in the boreal land regions between the prior model and the estimated fluxes may be a reflection of the timing of spring thaw and an imbalance in respiration versus photosynthesis. INDEX TERMS: 0322 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Constituent sources and sinks; 1615 Global Change: Biogeochemical processes (4805); 0315 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Biosphere/atmosphere interactions; KEYWORDS: carbon transport, inversion

TransCom model simulations of hourly atmospheric CO2: Analysis of synoptic-scale variations for the period 2002-2003

The ability to reliably estimate CO2 fluxes from current in situ atmospheric CO2 measurements and future satellite CO2 measurements is dependent on transport model performance at synoptic and shorter timescales. The TransCom continuous experiment was designed to evaluate the performance of forward transport model simulations at hourly, daily, and synoptic timescales, and we focus on the latter two in this paper. Twenty-five transport models or model variants submitted hourly time series of nine predetermined tracers (seven for CO2) at 280 locations. We extracted synoptic-scale variability from daily averaged CO2 time series using a digital filter and analyzed the results by comparing them to atmospheric measurements at 35 locations. The correlations between modeled and observed synoptic CO2 variabilities were almost always largest with zero time lag and statistically significant for most models and most locations. Generally, the model results using diurnally varying land fluxes were closer to the observations compared to those obtained using monthly mean or daily average fluxes, and winter was often better simulated than summer. Model results at higher spatial resolution compared better with observations, mostly because these models were able to sample closer to the measurement site location. The amplitude and correlation of model-data variability is strongly model and season dependent. Overall similarity in modeled synoptic CO2 variability suggests that the first-order transport mechanisms are fairly well parameterized in the models, and no clear distinction was found between the meteorological analyses in capturing the synoptic-scale dynamics.

TransCom model simulations of hourly atmospheric CO2 : experimental overview and diurnal cycle results for 2002

[1] A forward atmospheric transport modeling experiment has been coordinated by the TransCom group to investigate synoptic and diurnal variations in CO2. Model simulations were run for biospheric, fossil, and air-sea exchange of CO2 and for SF6 and radon for 2000-2003. Twenty-five models or model variants participated in the comparison. Hourly concentration time series were submitted for 280 sites along with vertical profiles, fluxes, and meteorological variables at 100 sites. The submitted results have been analyzed for diurnal variations and are compared with observed CO2 in 2002. Mean summer diurnal cycles vary widely in amplitude across models. The choice of sampling location and model level account for part of the spread suggesting that representation errors in these types of models are potentially large. Despite the model spread, most models simulate the relative variation in diurnal amplitude between sites reasonably well. The modeled diurnal amplitude only shows a weak relationship with vertical resolution across models; differences in near-surface transport simulation appear to play a major role. Examples are also presented where there is evidence that the models show useful skill in simulating seasonal and synoptic changes in diurnal amplitude.

Role of biomass burning and climate anomalies for land‐atmosphere carbon fluxes based on inverse modeling of atmospheric CO2

lower than those estimated from TDI model results, by about 1.0 Pg-C yr � 1 for the periods and regions of intense fire. The correlation and principal component analyses suggest that changes in meteorology (i.e., rainfall and air temperature) associated with the

Simulation and assimilation of global ocean pCO2 and air–sea CO2 fluxes using ship observations of surface ocean pCO2 in a simplified biogeochemical offline model

We used an offline tracer transport model, driven by reanalysis ocean currents and coupled to a simple biogeochemical model, to synthesize the surface ocean pCO2 and air–sea CO2 flux of the global ocean from 1996 to 2004, using a variational assimilation method. This oceanic CO2 flux analysis system was developed at the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan, as part of a project that provides prior fluxes for atmospheric inversions using CO2 measurements made from an on-board instrument attached to the Greenhouse gas Observing SATellite (GOSAT). Nearly 250 000 pCO2 observations from the database of Takahashi et al. (2007) have been assimilated into the model with a strong constraint provide by ship-track observations while maintaining a weak constraint of 20% on global averages of monthly mean pCO2 in regions where observations are limited. The synthesized global air–sea CO2 flux shows a net sink of 1.48 PgC yr-1. The Southern Ocean air–sea CO2 flux is a sink of 0.41 PgC yr-1. The interannual variability of synthesized CO2 flux from the El Niño region suggests a weaker source (by an amplitude of 0.4 PgC yr-1) during the El Niño events in 1997/1998 and 2003/2004. The assimilated air–sea CO2 flux shows remarkable correlations with the CO2 fluxes obtained from atmospheric inversions on interannual time-scales.

Continuous measurements of methane from a tower network over Siberia

We have been conducting continuous measurements of Methane (sCH4) concentration from an expanding network of towers (JR-STATION: Japan–Russia Siberian Tall Tower Inland Observation Network) located in taiga, steppe and wetland biomes of Siberia since 2004. High daytime means (>2000 ppb) observed simultaneously at several towers during winter, together with in situ weather data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, indicate that high pressure systems caused CH4 accumulation at subcontinental scale due to the widespread formation of an inversion layer. Daytime means sometimes exceeded 2000 ppb, particularly in the summer of 2007 when temperature and precipitation rates were anomalously high over West Siberia, which implies that CH4 emission from wetlands were exceptionally high in 2007. Many hot spots detected by MODIS in the summer of 2007 illustrate that the contribution of biomass burning also cannot be neglected. Daytime mean CH4 concentrations from the Siberian tower sites were generally higher than CH4 values reported at NOAA coastal sites in the same latitudinal zone, and the difference in concentrations between two sets of sites was reproduced with a coupled Eulerian–Lagrangian transport model. Simulations of emissions from different CH4 sources suggested that the major contributor to variation switched from wetlands during summer to fossil fuel during winter.

The Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership: An Example of Science Applied to Societal Needs

Abstract Northern Eurasia, the largest land-mass in the northern extratropics, accounts for ∼20% of the global land area. However, little is known about how the biogeochemical cycles, energy and water cycles, and human activities specific to this carbon-rich, cold region interact with global climate. A major concern is that changes in the distribution of land-based life, as well as its interactions with the environment, may lead to a self-reinforcing cycle of accelerated regional and global warming. With this as its motivation, the Northern Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) was formed in 2004 to better understand and quantify feedbacks between northern Eurasian and global climates. The first group of NEESPI projects has mostly focused on assembling regional databases, organizing improved environmental monitoring of the region, and studying individual environmental processes. That was a starting point to addressing emerging challenges in the region related to rapidly and simultaneously...

Regional methane emission from West Siberia mire landscapes

Methane emissions from mires in all climate–vegetation zones of West Siberia (forest steppe, subtaiga, south taiga, middle taiga, north taiga, forest tundra and tundra) were measured using a static chamber method. The observed fluxes varied considerably from small negative values in forested bogs and palsa to hundreds of mgC m −2 h −1 in ponds and wet hollows. Observed data were consolidated in the form of the empirical model of methane emissions designated as the ‘standard model’. The model is based on medians of CH4 flux distributions of eight different micro-landscape types depending on their location and estimated duration of methane emission period within the climate–vegetation zone. The current version (Bc8) of the ‘standard model’ estimates methane flux from West Siberia mires at 2.93 ± 0.97 TgC CH4 yr −1 that accounts for about 2.4% of the total methane emission from all mires or 0.7% of global methane emission from all sources.

Global monthly CO2 flux inversion with a focus over North America

A nested inverse modelling system was developed for estimating carbon fluxes of 30 regions in North America and 20 regions for the rest of the globe. Monthly inverse modelling was conducted using CO2 concentration measurements of 3 yr (2001–2003) at 88 sites. Inversion results show that in 2003 the global carbon sink is -2.76 ± 0.55 Pg C. Oceans and lands are responsible for 88.5% and 11.5% of the sink, respectively. Northern lands are the largest sinks with North America contributing a sink of -0.97 ± 0.21 Pg C in 2003, of which Canada’s sink is -0.34 ± 0.14 Pg C. For Canada, the inverse results show a spatial pattern in agreement, for the most part, with a carbon source and sink distribution map previously derived through ecosystem modelling. However, discrepancies in the spatial pattern and in flux magnitude between these two estimates exist in certain regions. Numerical experiments with a full covariance matrix, with the consideration of the error structure of the a priori flux field based on meteorological variables among the 30 North America regions, resulted in a small but meaningful improvement in the inverted fluxes. Uncertainty reduction analysis suggests that new observation sites are still needed to further improve the inversion for these 30 regions in North America.