Pradeep Adhikari

Analyzing projected changes and trends of temperature and precipitation in the southern USA from 16 downscaled global climate models

This study aims to examine how future climate, temperature and precipitation specifically, are expected to change under the A2, A1B, and B1 emission scenarios over the six states that make up the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP): Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Mississippi. SCIPP is a member of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments network, a program which aims to better connect climate-related scientific research with in-the-field decision-making processes. The results of the study found that the average temperature over the study area is anticipated to increase by 1.7°C to 2.4°C in the twenty-first century based on the different emission scenarios with a rate of change that is more pronounced during the second half of the century. Summer and fall seasons are projected to have more significant temperature increases, while the northwestern portions of the region are projected to experience more significant increases than the Gulf coast region. Precipitation projections, conversely, do not exhibit a discernible upward or downward trend. Late twenty-first century exhibits slightly more precipitation than the early century, based on the A1B and B1 scenario, and fall and winter are projected to become wetter than the late twentieth century as a whole. Climate changes on the city level show that greater warming will happened in inland cities such as Oklahoma City and El Paso, and heavier precipitation in Nashville. These changes have profound implications for local water resources management as well as broader regional decision making. These results represent an initial phase of a broader study that is being undertaken to assist SCIPP regional and local water planning efforts in an effort to more closely link climate modeling to longer-term water resources management and to continue assessing climate change impacts on regional hazards management in the South.

Will Nzoia Basin in Kenya See Water Deficiency in Coming Decades as a Result of Climate Change

This study investigates the potential change in the hydrologic cycle in Nzoia basin, one ofthe semi-arid basins of east Africa. An ensemble of 16 Global Climate Models data under different emissions scenarios are used in this study. The basin is expected to receive an increase in precipitation in all scenarios; from 5% to 15% by theend of this century compared to the base period 1990-1999. However, a 2 to 5oC increase in temperature is expected to create an overall drier climate with reduced runoffs. The decadal averaged seasonal trends show that all major hydrological components except the runoff are expected to increase. An increase in temperature, together with more precipitation, could significantly increase actual evapotranspiration, ultimately may result a decrease in runoff by 14% and 18% in the 2020s and 2090s respectively compared to the base period. The elasticity analysis showed that the change in runoff is more sensitive to a change in temperature than precipitation for the 2060s and 2090s; and suggested that temperature will continue to be the dominating factor in future climate. In general, Nzoia will very likely experience a drier climate, further exacerbating the

Will the Bagmati basin's future hydrological change be linked with global climate change patterns?

The impact of climate change on society is one of the most serious challenges of this century. Observations have shown that the Earth’s hydrologic cycle has intensified during past century as the Earth’s temperatures have increased. Such change in hydrology will affect nearly every aspect of human well being, from agricultural productivity and energy use to flood control as well as municipal and industrial water supply. This study therefore, focuses on using climate projection data (precipitation and temperature) from an ensemble of 16 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Thornthwaite Monthly Water Balance Model (TMWB) to assess changes in the basin hydrology in a high altitude mountainous Bagmati basin of Nepal. This region is considered as one of the most disaster (landslides and flood) prone basins in Hind-Kush-Himalaya due to the summer monsoon. The assessments were conducted for short (2020-2029), medium (2060-2069) and long (20902099) terms relative to the base period of the 1990-1999 in high (A2), medium (A1B) and low (B1) emission scenarios. According to GCMs the basin is expected to witness higher temperatures from about 2oC (B1) to 4.5oC (A2) and receive higher precipitation from about 7% (B1) to 20% (A2) in 2099. The increased precipitation is primarily expected to occur during the monsoon season, suggesting a wetter monsoon. The results from TMWB modeling show generation of higher runoff,