Pradeep Kurukulasuriya

A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on African Cropland

This study examines the impact of climate change on cropland in Africa. It is based on a survey of more than 9,000 farmers in 11 countries: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Niger, Senegal, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The study uses a Ricardian cross-sectional approach in which net revenue is regressed on climate, water flow, soil, and economic variables. The results show that net revenues fall as precipitation falls or as temperatures warm across all the surveyed farms. In addition to examining all farms together, the study examined dryland and irrigated farms separately. Dryland farms are especially climate sensitive. Irrigated farms have a positive immediate response to warming because they are located in relatively cool parts of Africa. The study also examined some simple climate scenarios to see how Africa would respond to climate change. These uniform scenarios assume that only one aspect of climate changes and the change is uniform across all of Africa. In addition, the study examined three climate change scenarios from Atmospheric Oceanic General Circulation Models. These scenarios predicted changes in climate in each country over time. Not all countries are equally vulnerable to climate change. First, the climate scenarios predict different temperature and precipitation changes in each country. Second, it is also important whether a country is already hot and dry. Third, the extent to which farms are irrigated is also important.

A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture Across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa

This paper examines the distribution of climate change impacts across the six- teen Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of Africa. We combine net revenue from livestock and

Crop Selection: Adapting to Climage Change in Africa

This paper examines whether the choice of crops is affected by climate in Africa. Using a multinomial logit model, the paper regresses crop choice on climate, soils, and other factors. The model is estimated using a sample of more than 7,000 farmers across 11 countries in Africa. The study finds that crop choice is very climate sensitive. For example, farmers select sorghum and maize-millet in the cooler regions of Africa; maize-beans, maize-groundnut, and maize in moderately warm regions and cowpea, cowpea-sorghum, and millet-groundnut in hot regions. Further, farmers choose sorghum, and millet-groundnut when conditions are dry; cowpea, cowpea-sorghum, maize-millet, and maize when medium wet; and maize-beans and maize-groundnut when wet. As temperatures warm, farmers will shift toward more heat tolerant crops. Depending on whether precipitation increases or decreases, farmers will also shift toward drought tolerant or water loving crops, respectively. There are several policy relevant conclusions to draw from this study. First, farmers will adapt to climate change by switching crops. Second, global warming impact studies cannot assume crop choice is exogenous. Third, this study only examines choices across current crops. Future farmers may well have more choices. There is an important role for agronomic research in developing new varieties more suited for higher temperatures. Future farmers may have even better adaptation alternatives with an expanded set of crop choices specifically targeted at higher temperatures.

The impact of climate change on African agriculture : a ricardian approach

This paper uses the Ricardian approach to examine how farmers in 11 countries in Africa have adapted to existing climatic conditions. It then estimates the effects of predicted changes in climate while accounting for whatever farmer adaptation might occur. This study differs from earlier ones by using farmers own perceptions of the value of their land. Previous research, by contrast, has relied on either observed sale prices or net revenues, sometimes aggregated over geographically large tracts of terrain. The study also makes use of high resolution data describing soil quality and runoff. Furthermore, it tackles the challenges involved in modeling the effect of climate on agriculture in a study that includes countries in the northern and southern hemispheres, as well as the tropics. The study confirms that African agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Even with perfect adaptation, regional climate change by 2050 is predicted to entail production losses of 19.9 percent for Burkina Faso and 30.5 percent for Niger. By contrast, countries such as Ethiopia and South Africa are hardly affected at all, suffering productivity losses of only 1.3 percent and 3 percent, respectively. The study also confirms the importance of water supplies as measured by runoff, which, being affected by both temperature and precipitation, may itself be highly sensitive to climate change.

Endogenous Irrigation: The Impact of Climate Change on Farmers in Africa

Previous Ricardian analyses of agriculture have either omitted irrigation or treated irrigation as though it is exogenous. In practice, it is a choice by farmers that is sensitive to climate. This paper develops a choice model of irrigation in the context of a Ricardian model of cropland. The authors examine how climate affects the decision to use irrigation and then how climate affects the net revenues of dryland and irrigated land. This Ricardianselectionmodel, using a modified Heckman model, is then estimated across 8,400 farmers in Africa. The analysis explicitly models irrigation but controls for the endogeneity of irrigation. The authors find that the choice of irrigation is sensitive to both temperature and precipitation. Simulations of the welfare impacts of several climate scenarios demonstrate that a model which assumes irrigation is exogenous provides a biased estimate of the welfare effects of climate change. If dryland and irrigation are to be estimated separately in the Ricardian model, irrigation must be modeled endogenously. The results also indicate that African agriculture is sensitive to climate change. Many farmers in Africa will experience net revenue losses from warming. Irrigated farms, on the other hand, are more resilient to temperature change and, on the margin, are likely to realize slight gains in productivity. But any reduction in precipitation will be especially deleterious to dryland farmers, generally the poorest segment of the agriculture community. The results indicate that irrigation is an effective adaptation against loss of rainfall and higher temperatures provided there is sufficient water available. This will be an effective remedy in select regions of Africa with water. However, for many regions there is no available surface water, so that warming scenarios with reduced rainfall are particularly deleterious.

ADAPTATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS: A STRUCTURAL RICARDIAN MODEL OF IRRIGATION AND FARM INCOME IN AFRICA

Although there is now an extensive literature on the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture, no study has yet addressed the endogeneity of irrigation. This paper examines how climate affects the choice to irrigate and the conditional income earned by each farmer. The paper develops a selection model of irrigation choice and conditional income. Using data from farmers across eleven African countries, the paper demonstrates that the choice of irrigation is sensitive to both temperature and precipitation. Rainfed and irrigated farm income also both respond to climate but have different climate sensitivity. Impact models that fail to account for endogenous irrigation are biased.

Measuring The Economic Impact Of Climate Change On African Agricultural Production Systems

This study measured the economic impacts of climate change on crop and livestock farming in Africa based on a cross-sectional survey of over 8000 farming households from 11 countries in east, west, north and southern Africa. The response of net revenue from crop and livestock agriculture across various farm types and systems in Africa to changes in climate normals (i.e. mean rainfall and temperature) is analysed. The analyses controlled for effects of key socioeconomic, technology, soil and hydrological factors influencing agricultural production. Results show that net farm revenues are in general negatively affected by warmer and drier climates. The small-scale mixed crop and livestock system predominantly typical in Africa is the most tolerant whereas specialized crop production is the most vulnerable to warming and lower rainfall. These results have important policy implications, especially for the suitability of the increasing tendency toward large-scale mono-cropping strategies for agricultural development in Africa and other parts of the developing world in light of expected climate changes. Mixed crop and livestock farming and irrigation offered better adaptation options for farmers against further warming and drying predicted under various future climate scenarios.

Adapting to Climate Change Mosaically: An Analysis of African Livestock Management by Agro-Ecological Zones

Abstract This paper examines African livestock management across Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) to learn how they would adapt to climate change in the coming century. We analyze farm level decisions to own livestock and to choose a primary livestock species using logit models with and without country fixed effects or AEZ fixed effects. With a hot dry scenario, the results indicate that livestock ownership will increase slightly across all of Africa, but especially in West Africa and high elevation AEZs. Dairy cattle will decrease in semi-arid regions, sheep will increase in lowlands, and rearing chickens will increase at high elevations. On the other hand, if climate becomes wetter, livestock ownership will fall dramatically in lowlands and high elevation moist AEZs. Beef cattle will increase and sheep will fall in dry AEZs, dairy cattle will fall precipitously and goats will rise in moist AEZs, and chickens will increase at high elevations but fall at mid elevations. Therefore, adaptation measures should be tailored to a specific AEZ.

The impact of climate change on agro-ecological zones: evidence from Africa

This study predicts the impact of climate change on African agriculture. We use a generalized linear model (GLM) framework to estimate the relationship between the proportion of various Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) in a district and climate. Using three climate scenarios, we project how climate change will cause AEZs to shift, causing changes in acreage and net revenue per hectare of cropland. Our results predict that Africa will suffer heavy annual welfare losses by 2070–2100, ranging between US

How Will Climate Change Shift Agro-Ecological Zones and Impact African Agriculture?

14 billion and US