Prakash Thimmapuram

Modeling hydro power plants in deregulated electricity markets: Integration and application of EMCAS and VALORAGUA

In this paper, we present details of integrating an agent-based model, Electricity Market Complex Adaptive System (EMCAS) with a hydro-thermal coordination model, VALORAGUA. EMCAS provides a framework for simulating deregulated markets with flexible regulatory structure along with bidding strategies for supply offers and demand bids. VALORAGUA provides longer-term operation plans by optimizing hydro and thermal power plant operation for the entire year. In addition, EMCAS uses the price forecasts and weekly hydro schedules from VALORAGUA to provide intra-week hydro plant optimization for hourly supply offers. The integrated model is then applied to the Iberian electricity market which includes about 111 thermal plants and 38 hydro power plants. We then analyze the impact of hydro plant supply offers on the market prices and ways to minimize the Gencospsila exposure to price risk.

Energy Storage Arbitrage Under Day-Ahead and Real-Time Price Uncertainty

Electricity markets must match real-time supply and demand of electricity. With increasing penetration of renewable resources, it is important that this balancing is done effectively, considering the high uncertainty of wind and solar energy. Storing electrical energy can make the grid more reliable and efficient and energy storage is proposed as a complement to highly variable renewable energy sources. However, for investments in energy storage to increase, participating in the market must become economically viable for owners. This paper proposes a stochastic formulation of a storage owners arbitrage profit maximization problem under uncertainty in day-ahead and real-time market prices. The proposed model helps storage owners in market bidding and operational decisions and in estimation of the economic viability of energy storage. Case study results on realistic market price data show that the novel stochastic bidding approach does significantly better than the deterministic benchmark.

Using multi-agent simulation to test European electricity markets

We discuss examples of implementations of agent-based simulation models in several European countries. Agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) is increasingly used as a tool to analyze power markets around the world and test the robustness of electricity markets and their underlying rules. The diversity of market designs, the complexities in their configurations with multitudes of participants, and their coupling with the underlying infrastructure require simulation approaches that allow a better representation of these real-world constraints. The power of ABMS tools lies in the flexibility they provide to merge and address these requirements in a single modeling framework.

Agent-based modeling of electric power markets

A novel agent-based model, the Electricity Market Complex Adaptive System (EMCAS) model, is designed to study market restructuring and the impact of new technologies on the power grid. The agent-based approach captures the complex interactions between the physical infrastructure and the economic behaviors of various agents operating in an electricity market. The electric power system model consists of power generating plants, transmission lines, and load centers. The electric power market is composed of generating company agents who bid capacity and prices into power pools administered by an Independent System Operator (ISO). The ISO agent balances supply and demand for day-ahead markets. EMCAS also simulates real-time market operation to account for the uncertainties in day-ahead forecasts and availability of generating units. This paper describes the model, its implementation, and its use to address questions of congestion management, price forecasting, market design, and market power.