Thomas D. Veselka

Assumptions and the levelized cost of energy for photovoltaics

Photovoltaic electricity is a rapidly growing renewable energy source and will ultimately assume a major role in global energy production. The cost of solar-generated electricity is typically compared to electricity produced by traditional sources with a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) calculation. Generally, LCOE is treated as a definite number and the assumptions lying beneath that result are rarely reported or even understood. Here we shed light on some of the key assumptions and offer a new approach to calculating LCOE for photovoltaics based on input parameter distributions feeding a Monte Carlo simulation. In this framework, the influence of assumptions and confidence intervals becomes clear.

Multi-agent power market simulation using EMCAS

Countries around the world continue to restructure their electricity markets and open them up to competition and private investors in pursuit of economic efficiency and new capital investment. However, the recent volatility exhibited by many restructured power markets, in combination with several prominent market failures, have highlighted the need for a better understanding of the complex interactions between the various market participants and the emerging overall market behavior. Advanced modeling approaches are needed that simulate the behavior of electricity markets over time and model how market participants may act and react to changes in the underlying economic, financial, and regulatory environments. This is particularly useful for developing sound market rules that will allow these markets to function properly. A new and promising approach is to model electricity markets as complex adaptive systems using an agent-based modeling and simulation approach, such as is implemented in the electricity market complex adaptive system (EMCAS) software. EMCAS provides an agent-based framework to capture and investigate the complex interactions between the physical infrastructures and the economic behavior of market participants that are a trademark of the newly emerging markets. This paper describes the EMCAS agents, their interactions, the unique insights obtained from agent-based models, and discusses current model applications in several U.S., Asian, and European markets.

Incorporating environmental concerns into electric system expansion planning using a multi–criteria decision support system

A methodology is described for incorporating environmental externalities into electric system expansion planning. It combines a conventional least–cost optimisation tool, an environmental model, and a multi–criteria interval decision analysis system. The methodology can be used to analyse trade–offs between technical, economic, and environmental concerns. A case study in support of an international lending decision is used to analyse eleven power–sector expansion scenarios in terms of total system cost and environmental residuals. The scenarios are then compared by using a decision analysis tool. A brief comparison of interval and traditional decision analysis methodologies is also provided.

Modeling hydro power plants in deregulated electricity markets: Integration and application of EMCAS and VALORAGUA

In this paper, we present details of integrating an agent-based model, Electricity Market Complex Adaptive System (EMCAS) with a hydro-thermal coordination model, VALORAGUA. EMCAS provides a framework for simulating deregulated markets with flexible regulatory structure along with bidding strategies for supply offers and demand bids. VALORAGUA provides longer-term operation plans by optimizing hydro and thermal power plant operation for the entire year. In addition, EMCAS uses the price forecasts and weekly hydro schedules from VALORAGUA to provide intra-week hydro plant optimization for hourly supply offers. The integrated model is then applied to the Iberian electricity market which includes about 111 thermal plants and 38 hydro power plants. We then analyze the impact of hydro plant supply offers on the market prices and ways to minimize the Gencospsila exposure to price risk.

Agent-based modeling of electric power markets

A novel agent-based model, the Electricity Market Complex Adaptive System (EMCAS) model, is designed to study market restructuring and the impact of new technologies on the power grid. The agent-based approach captures the complex interactions between the physical infrastructure and the economic behaviors of various agents operating in an electricity market. The electric power system model consists of power generating plants, transmission lines, and load centers. The electric power market is composed of generating company agents who bid capacity and prices into power pools administered by an Independent System Operator (ISO). The ISO agent balances supply and demand for day-ahead markets. EMCAS also simulates real-time market operation to account for the uncertainties in day-ahead forecasts and availability of generating units. This paper describes the model, its implementation, and its use to address questions of congestion management, price forecasting, market design, and market power.

Water Use Optimization Toolset Project: Development and Demonstration Phase Draft Report

This report summarizes the results of the development and demonstration phase of the Water Use Optimization Toolset (WUOT) project. It identifies the objective and goals that guided the project, as well as demonstrating potential benefits that could be obtained by applying the WUOT in different geo-hydrologic systems across the United States. A major challenge facing conventional hydropower plants is to operate more efficiently while dealing with an increasingly uncertain water-constrained environment and complex electricity markets. The goal of this 3-year WUOT project, which is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), is to improve water management, resulting in more energy, revenues, and grid services from available water, and to enhance environmental benefits from improved hydropower operations and planning while maintaining institutional water delivery requirements. The long-term goal is for the WUOT to be used by environmental analysts and deployed by hydropower schedulers and operators to assist in market, dispatch, and operational decisions.

Financial Analysis of Experimental Releases Conducted at Glen Canyon Dam during Water Year 2013

This report examines the financial implications of experimental flows conducted at the Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) in water year 2013. It is the fifth report in a series examining the financial implications of experimental flows conducted since the Record of Decision (ROD) was adopted in February 1997 (Reclamation 1996). A report released in January 2011 examined water years 1997 to 2005 (Veselka et al. 2011), a report released in August 2011 examined water years 2006 to 2010 (Poch et al. 2011), a report released June 2012 examined water year 2011 (Poch et al. 2012), and a report released April 2013 examined water year 2012 (Poch et al. 2013).