Priscila Lemes

Severe Loss of Suitable Climatic Conditions for Marsupial Species in Brazil: Challenges and Opportunities for Conservation

A wide range of evidences indicate climate change as one the greatest threats to biodiversity in the 21st century. The impacts of these changes, which may have already resulted in several recent species extinction, are species-specific and produce shifts in species phenology, ecological interactions, and geographical distributions. Here we used cutting-edge methods of species distribution models combining thousands of model projections to generate a complete and comprehensive ensemble of forecasts that shows the likely impacts of climate change in the distribution of all 55 marsupial species that occur in Brazil. Consensus projections forecasted range shifts that culminate with high species richness in the southeast of Brazil, both for the current time and for 2050. Most species had a significant range contraction and lost climate space. Turnover rates were relatively high, but vary across the country. We also mapped sites retaining climatic suitability. They can be found in all Brazilian biomes, especially in the pampas region, in the southern part of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, in the north of the Cerrado and Caatinga, and in the northwest of the Amazon. Our results provide a general overview on the likely effects of global climate change on the distribution of marsupials in the country as well as in the patterns of species richness and turnover found in regional marsupial assemblages.

A straightforward conceptual approach for evaluating spatial conservation priorities under climate change

Despite wide evidence of a quickly changing world, systematic conservation planning analyses are usually static assuming that the biodiversity being preserved in sites do not change through time. Here we generated a comprehensive ensemble forecasting experiment for 444 amphibian species inhabiting the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot. Models were based on four methods for modeling ecological niches, and three future climate simulations. Combinations of these models were used to estimate species occurrences. We used species occurrences to optimize the current and future representation of amphibians with different conservation targets based on their geographic range size. We compared spatial priority outcomes (variance of site selection frequency scores) under dynamic conditions, using a bi-dimensional plot in which the relative importance of each site in achieving conservation targets was assessed both for current time and to 2050. Projections for 2050 show that species richness pattern will remain approximately constant, whereas high turnover rates are forecasted. Selection frequency of several locations varied widely, with recurrent sites located at the north and southeast of the biome. As for 2050, spatial priorities concentrate in the northern part of the biome. Thirty-three sites have high priority for conservation as they play an important role now and will still stand as priority locations in 2050. We present a conceptual model for dynamic spatial conservation prioritization that helps to identify priority sites under climate change. We also call attention to sites in which risk of investment is high, and to those that may become interesting options in the future.

Acoustic Repertoire of Barycholos ternetzi (Anura: Strabomantidae) in Central Brazil

ABSTRACT. Barycholos ternetzi is an anuran species from the Brazilian Cerrado which can be found in gallery forests and Cerrado sensu strictu. Currently, the only available information about the natural history of B. ternetzi is a previous description of its advertisement call. Herein, we studied the vocal repertoire of this species in October 2009 at Floresta Nacional de Silvânia, Goiás state, Central Brazil. We recognized four distinct vocalizations, of which the advertisement call was the most common. The aggressive call was emitted in response to a neighbor male, while the distress and fighting calls were emitted, respectively, when the male was caught or during physical interactions. We also observed that the dominant frequency was influenced by call duration and body size, while the call duration and repetition rate were influenced by air temperature. Furthermore, we observed that the chorus size influenced the repetition rate of the advertisement call of B. ternetzi.