Pu Lin

Simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents during the cold season

A suite of the historical simulations run with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) models forced by greenhouse gases, aerosols, stratospheric ozone depletion, and volcanic eruptions and a second suite of simulations forced by increasing CO2 concentrations alone are compared with observations for the reference interval 1965–2000. Surface air temperature trends are disaggregated by boreal cold (November-April) versus warm (May-October) seasons and by high latitude northern (N: 40°–90 °N) versus southern (S: 60 °S–40 °N) domains. A dynamical adjustment is applied to remove the component of the cold-season surface air temperature trends (over land areas poleward of 40 °N) that are attributable to changing atmospheric circulation patterns. The model simulations do not simulate the full extent of the wintertime warming over the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere continents during the later 20th century, much of which was dynamically induced. Expressed as fractions of the concurrent trend in global-mean sea surface temperature, the relative magnitude of the dynamically induced wintertime warming over domain N in the observations, the simulations with multiple forcings, and the runs forced by the buildup of greenhouse gases only is 7∶2∶1, and roughly comparable to the relative magnitude of the concurrent sea-level pressure trends. These results support the notion that the enhanced wintertime warming over high northern latitudes from 1965 to 2000 was mainly a reflection of unforced variability of the coupled climate system. Some of the simulations exhibit an enhancement of the warming along the Arctic coast, suggestive of exaggerated feedbacks.

Poleward Shift of Subtropical Jets Inferred from Satellite-Observed Lower-Stratospheric Temperatures

AbstractOne pronounced feature in observed latitudinal dependence of lower-stratospheric temperature trends is the enhanced cooling near 30° latitude in both hemispheres. The observed phenomenon has not, to date, been explained in the literature. This study shows that the enhanced cooling is a direct response of the lower-stratospheric temperature to the poleward shift of subtropical jets. Furthermore, this enhanced lower-stratospheric cooling can be used to quantify the poleward shift of subtropical jets. Using the lower-stratospheric temperatures observed by satellite-borne microwave sounding units, it is shown that the subtropical jets have shifted poleward by 0.6° ± 0.1° and 1.0° ± 0.3° latitude in the Southern and Northern Hemispheres, respectively, in last 30 years since 1979, indicating a widening of tropical belt by 1.6° ± 0.4° latitude.

Temperature Trend Patterns in Southern Hemisphere High Latitudes: Novel Indicators of Stratospheric Change

Abstract Robust stratospheric temperature trend patterns are suggested in the winter and spring seasons in the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes from the satellite-borne Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) measurement for 1979–2007. These patterns serve as indicators of key processes governing temperature and ozone changes in the Antarctic. The observed patterns are characterized by cooling and warming regions of comparable magnitudes, with the strongest local trends occurring in September and October. In September, ozone depletion induces radiative cooling, and strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) induces dynamical warming. Because the trends induced by these two processes are centered in different locations in September, they do not cancel each other, but rather produce a wavelike structure. In contrast, during October, the ozone-induced radiative cooling and the BDC-induced warming exhibit a more zonally symmetric structure than in September, and hence largely cancel each other. However, the...

On the seasonal dependence of tropical lower-stratospheric temperature trends

Abstract. This study examines the seasonality of tropical lower-stratospheric temperature trends using the Microwave Sounding Unit lower-stratospheric channel (T4) for 1980–2008. We present evidence that this seasonality is largely a response to changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) driven by extratropical wave forcing. We show how the tropical T4 trend can be used as an indicator of changes in the BDC, and find that the BDC is strengthening for 1980–2008 in June–November related to the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and in December–February to the Northern Hemisphere (NH). In marked contrast, we find that the BDC is weakening in March–May, apparently because of a weakening of its northern cell. The novel observational evidence on the seasonal dependence of the BDC trends presented in this study has important implications for the understanding of climate change in the stratosphere as well as testing climate model simulations.

Dynamical Adjustment of the Northern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature Field: Methodology and Application to Observations*

AbstractThe influence of atmospheric circulation changes reflected in spontaneously occurring sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies upon surface air temperature (SAT) variability and trends is investigated using partial least squares (PLS) regression, a statistical method that seeks to maximally explain covariance between a predictand time series or field and a predictor field. Applying PLS regression in any one of the three variants described in this study (pointwise, PC-wise, and fieldwise), the method yields a dynamical adjustment to the observed NH SAT field that accounts for approximately 50% of the variance in monthly mean, cold season data. It is shown that PLS regression provides a more parsimonious and statistically robust dynamical adjustment than an adjustment method based on the leading principal components of the extratropical SLP field. The usefulness of dynamical adjustment is demonstrated by applying it to the attribution of cold season SAT trends in two reference intervals: 1965–2000 and 192...

Impact of Tropical SST on Stratospheric Planetary Waves in the Southern Hemisphere

AbstractThe impact of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) on stratospheric planetary waves in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) is investigated in austral spring using observed SST and reanalysis data for the past three decades. Maximum covariance analysis indicates that the tropical SST and the SH stratospheric planetary wave activity are primarily coupled through two modes. The leading two modes show the La Nina–like and the central-Pacific El Nino–like SST anomalies in their positive polarities, respectively, which each are related to enhanced stratospheric planetary wave activity. These two modes also introduce phase shifts to the stratospheric stationary planetary waves: a westward shift is seen for La Nina and an eastward shift for warm SST anomalies is seen in the central Pacific. The Eliassen–Palm fluxes associated with the two modes indicate that the anomalous stratospheric wave activity originates in the troposphere and propagates upward over the mid–high latitudes, so that the linkages between tr...

Isotopic evidence of multiple controls on atmospheric oxidants over climate transitions

The abundance of tropospheric oxidants, such as ozone (O3) and hydroxyl (OH) and peroxy radicals (HO2 + RO2), determines the lifetimes of reduced trace gases such as methane and the production of particulate matter important for climate and human health. The response of tropospheric oxidants to climate change is poorly constrained owing to large uncertainties in the degree to which processes that influence oxidants may change with climate and owing to a lack of palaeo-records with which to constrain levels of atmospheric oxidants during past climate transitions. At present, it is thought that temperature-dependent emissions of tropospheric O3 precursors and water vapour abundance determine the climate response of oxidants, resulting in lower tropospheric O3 in cold climates while HOx (= OH + HO2 + RO2) remains relatively buffered. Here we report observations of oxygen-17 excess of nitrate (a proxy for the relative abundance of atmospheric O3 and HOx) from a Greenland ice core over the most recent glacial–interglacial cycle and for two Dansgaard–Oeschger events. We find that tropospheric oxidants are sensitive to climate change with an increase in the O3/HOx ratio in cold climates, the opposite of current expectations. We hypothesize that the observed increase in O3/HOx in cold climates is driven by enhanced stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of O3, and that reactive halogen chemistry is also enhanced in cold climates. Reactive halogens influence the oxidative capacity of the troposphere directly as oxidants themselves and indirectly via their influence on O3 and HOx. The strength of stratosphere-to-troposphere transport is largely controlled by the Brewer–Dobson circulation, which may be enhanced in colder climates owing to a stronger meridional gradient of sea surface temperatures, with implications for the response of tropospheric oxidants and stratospheric thermal and mass balance. These two processes may represent important, yet relatively unexplored, climate feedback mechanisms during major climate transitions.