Qianqiu Liu

The 52-Week High Momentum Strategy in International Stock Markets

We study the 52-week high momentum strategy in international stock markets proposed by George and Hwang [George, T., Hwang, C.Y., 2004. The 52-week high and momentum investing. Journal of Finance 59, 2145-2176.]. This strategy produces profits in 18 of the 20 markets studied, and the profits are significant in 10 markets. The 52-week high momentum profits exist independently from the Jegadeesh and Titman [Jegadeesh, N., Titman, S., 1993. Returns to buying winners and selling losers: implications for market efficiency. Journal of Finance 48, 65-91.] individual stock and Moskowitz and Grinblatt [Moskowitz, T.J., Grinblatt, M., 1999. Do industries explain momentum? Journal of Finance 54, 1249-1290] industry momentum strategies. These profits do not show reversals in the long run. We find that the 52-week high is a better predictor of future returns than macroeconomic risk factors or the acquisition price. The individualism index, a proxy to the level of overconfidence, has no explanatory power to the variations of the 52-week high momentum profits across different markets. However, the profits are no longer significant in most markets once transaction costs are taken into account.

Extreme Downside Risk and Expected Stock Returns

We propose a measure for extreme downside risk (EDR) to investigate whether bearing such a risk is rewarded by higher expected stock returns. By constructing an EDR proxy with the left tail index in the classical generalized extreme value distribution, we document a significantly positive EDR premium in cross-section of stock returns even after controlling for market, size, value, momentum, and liquidity effects. The EDR premium is more prominent among glamor stocks and when high market returns are expected. High-EDR stocks are generally characterized by high idiosyncratic risk, large downside beta, lower coskewness and cokurtosis, and high bankruptcy risk. The EDR premium persists after these characteristics are controlled for. Although Value at Risk (VaR) plays a significant role in explaining the EDR premium, it cannot completely subsume the EDR effect. 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Closer Look at the Short-Term Return Reversal

Stock returns unexplained by “fundamentals,” such as cash flow news, are more likely to reverse in the short run than those linked to fundamental news. Making novel use of analyst forecast revisions to measure cash flow news, a simple enhanced reversal strategy generates a risk-adjusted return four times the size of the standard reversal strategy. Importantly, isolating the component of past returns not driven by fundamentals provides a cleaner setting for testing existing theories of short-term reversals. Using this approach, we find that both liquidity shocks and investor sentiment contribute to the observed short-term reversal, but in different ways: Specifically, the reversal profit is attributable to liquidity shocks on the long side because fire sales more likely demand liquidity, and it is attributable to investor sentiment on the short side because short-sale constraints prevent the immediate elimination of overvaluation. This paper was accepted by Brad Barber, finance.

An Analysis of the Magnet Effect under Price Limits

Using the Korea Stock Exchanges transaction data and limit order book, we document the accelerating patterns of market activity before limit hits. We confirm the existence of the magnet effect from several key market microstructure variables, using a parsimonious quadratic function of the time until the price limit hit. In addition, this paper is the first to isolate the intraday momentum effect from the magnet effect during the period before stock prices hit daily price limits.

The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News, Stock-Bond Return Correlations, and the State of the Economy

Tourism sector is a potential sector for the economic growth of Bangladesh. This paper is prepared to find out the prospect of Private-public-partnership (PPP) for economic growth in tourism sector in Bangladesh. The relationship between tourism industry of Bangladesh and its contribution to economic growth are analyzed to strengthen the probability of this private-public partnership. The market for tourism industry is identified through SCP (Structure, conduct, performance) framework and prospect of creating such market though PPP for greater revenue of the private sector which are showed in this article. Tourism is playing very diverse role in many developing countries and prospect of this industry in Bangladesh is very high. The objective of the paper is to present the recent trends of earning from tourism, tourist arrivals and identifications of barriers of tourism industry in Bangladesh. Further, government’s different projects regarding tourism sector development are considered to see the greater prospect of profit from private sector which will contribute to economic growth of Bangladesh

Short-Term Return Reversal: The Long and the Short of It

Stock returns unexplained by “fundamentals”, such as cash flow news, are more likely to reverse in the short run than those linked to fundamental news. Making novel use of analyst forecast revisions to measure cash flow news, a simple enhanced reversal strategy generates a risk-adjusted return four times the size of the standard reversal strategy. Importantly, isolating the component of past returns not driven by fundamentals provides a cleaner setting for testing existing theories of short-term reversals. Using this approach, we find that both liquidity shocks and investor sentiment contribute to the observed short term reversal, but in different ways: Specifically, the reversal profit is attributable to liquidity shocks on the long side as fire sales more likely demand liquidity; and it is attributable to investor sentiment on the short side as short-sale constraints prevent the immediate elimination of overvaluation.

Are Lifecycle Funds Getting a Bum Rap? A Comprehensive Comparison of Lifecycle versus Lifestyle Retirement Strategies from Accumulation through Withdrawal

In an effort to determine whether recent criticism regarding the efficacy of lifecycle mutual funds is justified, this article makes a robust comparison of two glidepath strategies commonly employed in lifecycle funds, both with each other and with a range of constant allocation portfolios designed to simulate risk-based lifestyle mutual funds. A concerted effort is made to make the model design realistic, and the analysis considers the lifecycle and lifestyle strategies through the accumulation and withdrawal phases of retirement planning. The results tend to cast a favorable light on lifecycle funds and suggest that recent research critical of lifecycle funds may be too narrowly focused. By considering a robust range of accumulation and withdrawal scenarios as well as multiple measures of risk, this analysis finds that lifecycle funds may be a rational choice for a surprisingly wide spectrum of workers and retirees.