Quintín Martín

Definition and temporal evolution of the heat and cold waves over the Spanish Central Plateau from 1961 to 2010

The temporal behavior of the annual frequency of heat and cold waves observed between 1961 and 2010is established for the Spanish Central Plateau and for the two sub-areas in it. The series of daily maximumand minimum temperature anomalies for the working areas were calculated from the daily data concerningtemperature anomalies. The thresholds of these series of anomalies, determined by the P10 and P90 percentilesvalues, were obtained. Heat waves occur when there are two or more consecutive days on which the maximumand minimum temperature anomalies are simultaneously greater than the values of the thresholds obtainedfor the P90 percentile. The heat waves that affected the Spanish Central Plateau and the two sub-areas duringthe period of time considered were identified and their monthly and annual frequencies were obtained. Likewise,a cold wave is considered to have occurred when there are two or more consecutive days on which themaximum and minimum temperature anomalies are simultaneously lower than the thresholds establishedby the corresponding P10 percentiles. The cold waves occurring in the study area were identified and theirmonthly and annual frequencies in the study period were established. According to the results, the monthswith highest number of heat waves between 1961 and 2010 were May (25 waves) and June (23 waves).Trend analysis of the series of annual frequencies indicates that there was an increasing trend towards theoccurrence of heat waves, with a confidence level greater than 99%. The linear model established indicatesthat an increase had occurred in the frequency of heat waves in the Spanish plateau of the order of 0.6 wavesevery 10 years. Regarding cold waves, these were detected in each month of the year and their frequencyranged between eight and 16 events per year. The months with lowest number of cold waves were April(nine), July (eight) and August (nine), and the months with the highest number were March, May, June andOctober, with 16 cold waves. The years with the highest number of cold waves were 1969, 1971 and 1977,with seven cases. In the other years the annual rate was between one and six. Trend analysis of the series ofannual frequencies indicated that there was a decreasing frequency of cold waves, at the confidence levelof 99%. When a linear model was considered for the Spanish Central Plateau a decreasing frequency of thecold waves of the order of 0.54 waves in every 10 years was observed from 1961 to 2010.

Argumentative SOX compliant and quality decision support intelligent expert system over the suppliers selection process

The objective of this paper is to define a decision support system over SOX (Sarbanes-Oxley Act) compatibility and quality of the Suppliers Selection Process based on Artificial Intelligence and Argumentation Theory knowledge and techniques. Thepresent SOX Law, in effect nowadays, was created to improve financial government control over US companies. This law is a factor standard out United States due to several factors like present globalization, expansion of US companies, or key influence of US stock exchange markets worldwide. This paper constitutes a novel approach to this kind of problems due to following elements: (1) it has an optimized structure to look for the solution, (2) it has a dynamic learningmethod to handle court and control gonvernment bodies decisions, (3) it uses fuzzy knowledge to improve its performance, and (4) it uses its past accumulated experience to let the system evolve far beyond its initial state.

Argumentative SOX Compliant and Intelligent Decision Support Systems for the Suppliers Contracting Process

More and more our society is linked to the stability of financial markets and this stability depends on key players like private companies, financial markets, investors, analysts, government control agencies and so on. Sarbanes-Oxley Act is a mandatory law in EEUU market and a facto standard in rest of the world and has as main objective to keep the desire financial stability. Within this chapter it will be shown a new decision support intelligent financial model over SOX compatibility based on Artificial Intelligent technology together with Theory of Argumentation . The main aim of this model is to help and support private companies, auditors, executive boards and regulatory bodies to take a SOX compliant decision over an specific process of a typical purchasing financial cycle: The Contracting Process. The decision will be supported by the whole argumentation process drive by this model and will be reinforce with quality measures with the final objective to create a very clear argumentative background about the suggested decision. This model directly contributes to both scientific research artificial intelligence area and business sector. From business perspective it empowers the use of intelligent models and techniques to drive decision making over financial statements. From scientific and research area the impact is based on the combination of the following innovative elements: (1) an specific Information Seeking Dialog Protocol, (2) a Facts Valuation based Protocol in which previous gathered facts are analyzed, (3) the already incorporated initial knowledge coming from human expert knowledge, (4) the Intra-Agent Decision Making Protocol based on deductive argumentation and (5) the Semi Automated Fuzzy Dynamic Knowledge Learning Protocol giving as a result a novel approach to this kind of problems.

Estabilización de la varianza de una distribución hipergeométrica

ResumenEn este trabajo se determina una transformación tipo arco seno para una distribución hipergeométricaH(N, D=pN, n), de forma que estabilice la varianza de la misma en función de la fracciónp de objetos de un cierto tipo. Como caso particular de las expresiones obtenidas se deducen las dadas por F. J. Anscombe (1948) para la distribución binomialB(n, p). Al final del trabajo se efectúa una investigación numérica de los resultados obtenidos y se dan algunas aplicaciones para realizar inferencias sobre el parámetrop.SummaryIn this paper, we determine an arcsine transformation for a hypergeometric distributionH(N, D=pN, n), so that it may stabilize its variance as function of the ratiop of a acertain type of objects. As a particular case of the attained expressions, we deduce those of F. J. Anscombe (1948) with regard to the binomial distributionB(n, p). At the end of this paper we carry out a numerical research into the achieved results and provide some applications in order to make inferences about the parameterp.