R. Glenn Hubbard

Precautionary Saving and Social Insurance

Micro data studies of household saving often find a significant group in the population with virtually no wealth, raising concerns about heterogeneity in motives for saving. In particular, this heterogeneity has been interpreted as evidence against the life cycle model of saving. This paper argues that a life cycle model can replicate observed patterns in household wealth accumulation after accounting explicitly for precautionary saving and asset-based, means-tested social insurance. We demonstrate theoretically that social insurance programs with means tests based on assets discourage saving by households with low expected lifetime income. In addition, we evaluate the model using a dynamic programming model with four state variables. Assuming common preference parameters across lifetime income groups, we are able to replicate the empirical pattern that low-income households are more likely than high-income households to hold virtually no wealth. Low wealth accumulation can be explained as a utility-maximizing response to asset-based, means-tested welfare programs.

Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities are Useful: A Comment on Kaplan and Zingales

A recent paper in this Journal by Kaplan and Zingales reexamines a subset of firms from work of Fazzari, Hubbard, and Petersen and criticizes the usefulness of investment-cash flow sensitivities for detecting financing constraints. We show that the Kaplan and Zingales theoretical model fails to capture the approach employed in the literature and thus does not provide an effective critique. Moreover, we describe why their empirical classification system is flawed in identifYing both whether firms are constrained and the relative degree of constraints across firm groups. We conclude that their results do not support their conclusions about the usefulness of investment-cash flow sensitivities.

Business Cycles and the Relationship Between Concentration and Price-Cost Margins

Using a newly constructed panel data base, we examine changes in price-cost margins in 284 manufacturing industries between 1958 and 1981. A key finding is a dramatic narrowing of the spread between the margins of concentrated and unconcentrated industries over this period. We provide evidence that this narrowing is a result of the greater sensitivity of price-cost margins in more concentrated industries to demand fluctuations. This finding is robust to the inclusion of other industry variables and to measures of import competition. The results indicate that cross sectional estimates of the concentration-margins relationship are likely to be both biased and misleading.

The Importance of Precautionary Motives in Explaining Individual and Aggregate Saving

This paper examines predictions of a life-cycle simulation model -- in which individuals face uncertainty regarding their length of life, earnings, and out-of-pocket medical expenditures, and imperfect insurance and lending markets -- for individual and aggregate wealth accumulation. Relative to life-cycle or buffer-stock alternatives, our augmented life-cycle model better matches a variety of features of U.S. data, including: (1) aggregate wealth, (2) cross-sectional differences in wealth-age and consumption-age profiles by education group, and (3) short-run time-series co-movements of consumption and income.

Entrepreneurship and Household Saving

Abstract Using data from the 1983 and 1989 Federal Reserve Board Surveys of Consumer Finances, we quantify three findings about entrepreneurial saving decisions and their role in household wealth accumulation. First, entrepreneurial households own a substantial share of household wealth and income, and this share increases throughout the wealth distribution and the income distribution. Second, the portfolios of entrepreneurial households, even wealthy ones, are very undiversified, with the bulk of assets held within active businesses. Third, wealth-income ratios and saving rates are higher for entrepreneurial households even after controlling for age and other demographic variables. Taken together, these findings suggest that studies of household saving decisions in general and of the savings decisions of wealthy or high-income households in particular have paid insufficient attention to the role of entrepreneurial decisions and their role in wealth accumulation.

Investor Protection, Ownership, and the Cost of Capital

The authors combine the agency theory of the firm with risk diversification incentives for insiders. Principal-agent problems between insiders and outsiders force insiders to retain a larger share in their firm than they would under a perfect risk diversification strategy. The authors predict that this higher share of insider ownership and the resulting exposure of insiders to higher idiosyncratic risk will result in underinvestment and higher cost of capital. Using firm-level data from 38 countries, the authors provide evidence in support of their theoretical model, showing that the premium for bearing idiosyncratic risk varies between zero and six percent and decreases in the level of outside investor protection. The results of the study imply that policies aimed at strengthening investor protection laws and their enforcement will improve capital allocation and result in higher growth.

A Reconsideration of Investment Behavior Using Tax Reforms as Natural Experiments

We thank Alan Auerbach, Ricardo Caballero, Bill Gentry, Bronwyn Hall, Robert Hall, Charles Himmelberg, Anil Kashyap, Steve Oliner, Kristen Willard, and seminar participants at the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, University of Chicago, Columbia University, Duke University, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, University of Kentucky, University of Maryland, Miami University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, National Bureau of Economic Research, Princeton University, and C.V. Starr Center Conference on Finance, Productivity, and Real Activity for helpful comments. Cummins thanks the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System for their hospitality during an internship. Hubbard is grateful for support from the John M. Olin Foundation to the Center for the Study of the Economy and State at the University of Chicago and from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not reflect those of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Market Structure and Cyclical Fluctuations in U.S. Manufacturing

The relevance of imperfect competition for models of aggregate economic fluctuations has received increased attention from researchers in both macroeconomics and industrial organization. Measuring properly the size of industry markups of price over marginal cost is important both for assessing the role of market structure and for determining the extent to which excess capacity is a significant feature accompanying imperfect competition in American industry. Using a panel data set on four-digit Census manufacturing industries, this paper expands recent work by Robert Hall on the importance of market structure for understanding cyclical fluctuations. We outline a methodology for estimating industry markups of price over cost and the influence of market structure on cyclical movements in total factor productivity. While we find evidence to support the proposition that price exceeds marginal cost in U.S. manufacturing, our results offer only limited support for the notion that markups are importantly related to differences in industry concentration, though the effect of unionization is important. Concentration effects are important only in industries producing durable goods or differentiated consumer goods. In addition, much of the estimated markup of price over marginal cost is accounted for by fixed costs related to overhead labor, advertising, and central office expenses; we do not find compelling evidence of substantial evidence of excess capacity in most industries.

Tax reforms and investment: A cross-country comparison

We use firm-level panel data to explore the extent to which fixed investment responds to tax reforms in 14 OECD countries. Previous studies have often found that investment does not respond to changes in the marginal cost of investment. We identify some of the factors responsible for this finding and employ an estimation procedure that sidesteps the most important of them. In so doing, we find evidence of statistically and economically significant investment responses to tax changes in 12 of the 14 countries.

Tax Policy and Business Investment

In this survey, we review research on tax policy and business investment with four objectives. First, we use a simple prototypical dynamic neoclassical investment model to derive and explain effects of taxation on business investment in the long run and short run. Second, we describe and evaluate empirical tests of neoclassical channels, and we conclude that recent empirical evidence is consistent with neoclassical intuition. Third, we explore qualifications to basic theoretical models and their empirical tests raised by recent research on irreversibility and capital-market imperfections. Finally, we evaluate arguments for and against using tax policy to influence the level or timing of investment.While there is a consensus about the nature and magnitude of tax policy on investment demand considerable uncertainty remains regarding the structure of adjustment costs and the short-run dynamic effects of tax reforms. Consistent with our analysis of equilibrium investment outcomes, ascertaining the effects of tax policy on equilibrium investment requires additional research to examine responsiveness of interest rates, output, and the stock market to tax policy changes.