R.J.F. Hoogma

Regime shifts to sustainability through processes of niche formation: The approach of strategic niche management

The unsustainability of the present trajctories of technical change in sectors such as transport and agriculture is widely recognized. It is far from clear, however, how a transition to more sustainable modes of development may be achieved. Sustainable technologies that fulful important user requirements in terms of performance and price are most often not available on the market. Ideas of what might be more sustainable technologies exist, but the long development times, uncertainty about market demand and social gains, and the need for change at different levels in organization, technology, infastructure and the wider social and institutional context-provide a great barrier. This raises the question of how the potential of more sustainable technologies and modes of development may be exploited. In this article we describe how technical change is locked into dominant technological regimes, and present a perspective, called strategic niche management, on how to expedite a transition into a new regime. The perspective consists of the creation and/or management of nichesfor promising technologies.

EXPERIMENTING FOR SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT: THE APPROACH OF STRATEGIC NICHE MANAGEMENT.

Technological change is a central feature of modern societies and a powerful source for social change. There is an urgent task to direct these new technologies towards sustainability, but society lacks perspectives, instruments and policies to accomplish this. There is no blueprint for a sustainable future, and it is necessary to experiment with alternative paths that seem promising. Various new transport technologies promise to bring sustainability benefits. But as this book shows, important lessons are often overlooked because the experiments are not designed to challenge the basic assumptions about established patterns of transport choices. Learning how to organise the process of innovation implementation is essential if the maximum impact is to be achieved - it is here that strategic niche management offers new perspectives. The book uses a series of eight recent experiments with electric vehicles, carsharing schemes, bicycle pools and fleet management to illustrate the means by which technological change must be closely linked to social change if successful implementation is to take place. The basic divide between proponents of technological fixes and those in favour of behavioural change needs to be bridged, perhaps indicating a third way.

Strategies for shifting technological systems : the case of the automobile system

Californian and Dutch efforts to produce electric vehicles are explored and compared. Three strategies are put forward that could turn electric vehicles from an elusive legend, a plaything, into a marketable product: technology forcing creating a market of early promises, experiments geared towards niche development and upscaling (strategic niche management), and the creation of new alliances (technological nexus) which bring technology, the market, regulation and many other factors together. These strategies deployed in the Californian and Dutch context are analysed in detail to explore their relative strengths and weaknesses and to argue in the end that a combined use of all three will increase the chances that the dominant technological system will change. The succesful workings of these strategies crucially depend on the coupling of the variation and selection processes, building blocks for any evolutionary theory of technical change. Evolutionary theory lacks understanding of these coupling processes. Building on recent insights from the sociology of technology, the authors propose a quasi-evolutionary model which underpins the analysis of suggested strategies.

Integrated Long-Term Strategies to Induce Regime Shifts towards Sustainability: The Approach of Strategic Niche Management

For a number of years now we have known that there is something wrong with the ways we live and produce. Industrial societies are accumulating a heavy burden on future generations by depleting scarce natural resources, polluting the environment, and by reinforcing major economic and social imbalances. The Schumpeterian logic of creative destruction that drives modern capitalism gets a very particular and almost cynical connotation in this context. It seems that in many debates an inherent conflict is supposed between the economic interest orientation of modern capitalism and the ecological, social and economic requirements of future generations. The notion of sustainable development was coined as a conceptual response, but it has proven to be a banner for many causes. In its simplest form, sustainable development is defined as development that meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (WCSD 1987). This definition assumes that it is possible, indeed necessary, to make trade-offs between economic growth, social balance and sustainability of the environment. It conveys the hope that the development of new modes of economic growth can dramatically reduce pollution and resource use. Furthermore, it presupposes that it is possible to deal with issues of equity and democracy on a world scale. Finally sustainable development requires that society, business and governments operate on a different time scale than they do now. Long-term aims must not be sacrificed for short-term gains. It seems evident that achieving the objectives of sustainable development requires a radical departure from the principles of operation of our economies, i.e. an economic regime shift is needed.