R.M.B. Santos

Factor weighting in DRASTIC modeling

Evaluation of aquifer vulnerability comprehends the integration of very diverse data, including soil characteristics (texture), hydrologic settings (recharge), aquifer properties (hydraulic conductivity), environmental parameters (relief), and ground water quality (nitrate contamination). It is therefore a multi-geosphere problem to be handled by a multidisciplinary team. The DRASTIC model remains the most popular technique in use for aquifer vulnerability assessments. The algorithm calculates an intrinsic vulnerability index based on a weighted addition of seven factors. In many studies, the method is subject to adjustments, especially in the factor weights, to meet the particularities of the studied regions. However, adjustments made by different techniques may lead to markedly different vulnerabilities and hence to insecurity in the selection of an appropriate technique. This paper reports the comparison of 5 weighting techniques, an enterprise not attempted before. The studied area comprises 26 aquifer systems located in Portugal. The tested approaches include: the Delphi consensus (original DRASTIC, used as reference), Sensitivity Analysis, Spearman correlations, Logistic Regression and Correspondence Analysis (used as adjustment techniques). In all cases but Sensitivity Analysis, adjustment techniques have privileged the factors representing soil characteristics, hydrologic settings, aquifer properties and environmental parameters, by leveling their weights to ≈4.4, and have subordinated the factors describing the aquifer media by downgrading their weights to ≈1.5. Logistic Regression predicts the highest and Sensitivity Analysis the lowest vulnerabilities. Overall, the vulnerability indices may be separated by a maximum value of 51 points. This represents an uncertainty of 2.5 vulnerability classes, because they are 20 points wide. Given this ambiguity, the selection of a weighting technique to integrate a vulnerability index may require additional expertise to be set up satisfactorily. Following a general criterion that weights must be proportional to the range of the ratings, Correspondence Analysis may be recommended as the best adjustment technique.

Impacts of climate change and land-use scenarios on Margaritifera margaritifera, an environmental indicator and endangered species

In this study, we assess the impacts of future climate and land-use in the Beça River (northern Portugal) under different scenarios and how this will translate into the conservation status of the endangered pearl mussel Margaritifera margaritifera (Linnaeus, 1758). This species is currently present in several stretches of the Beça River that still hold adequate ecological conditions. However, the species is threatened by projected declines in precipitation for the 21st century, with implication on the river flows and water depths that might decrease below the species requisites. This situation could be especially critical during summer conditions since the ecological flows may not be assured and several river stretches may be converted into stagnant isolated pools. The habitat connectivity will also be affected with reverberating effects on the mobility of Salmo trutta, the host of M. margaritifera, with consequences in the reproduction and recruitment of pearl mussels. In addition, human-related threats mostly associated with the presence of dams and an predicted increases in wildfires in the future. While the presence of dams may decrease even further the connectivity and river flow, with wildfires the major threat will be related to the wash out of burned areas during storms, eventually causing the disappearance of the mussels, especially the juveniles. In view of future climate and land-use change scenarios, conservation strategies are proposed, including the negotiation of ecological flows with the dam promoters, the replanting of riparian vegetation along the water course and the reintroduction of native tree species throughout the catchment.

Water resources planning for a river basin with recurrent wildfires

Situated in the north of Portugal, the Beça River basin is subject to recurrent wildfires, which produce serious consequences on soil erosion and nutrient exports, namely by deteriorating the water quality in the basin. In the present study, the ECO Lab tool embedded in the Mike Hydro Basin software was used for the evaluation of river water quality, in particular the dissolved concentration of phosphorus in the period 1990-2013. The phosphorus concentrations are influenced by the burned area and the river flow discharge, but the hydrologic conditions prevail: in a wet year (2000, 16.3 km(2) of burned area) with an average flow of 16.4 m(3)·s(-1) the maximum phosphorus concentration was as low as 0.02 mg·L(-1), while in a dry year (2005, 24.4 km(2) of burned area) with an average flow of 2 m(3)·s(-1) the maximum concentration was as high as 0.57 mg·L(-1). Phosphorus concentrations in the water bodies exceeded the bounds of good ecological status in 2005 and between 2009 and 2012, water for human consumption in 2009 and water for multiple uses in 2010. The River Covas, a right margin tributary of Beça River, is the most appropriate stream as regards the use of water for human consumption, because it presents the biggest water potential with the best water quality. Since wildfires in the basin result essentially from natural causes and climate change forecasts indicate an increase in their frequency and intensity in the near future, forestry measures are proposed to include as a priority the conversion of stands of maritime pine in mixed stands of conifer and hardwood species.

Controls and forecasts of nitrate yields in forested watersheds: A view over mainland Portugal.

A study on nitrate yields was conducted in forested watersheds of mainland Portugal. The prime goal was to rank parameters in descending order of their contribution to the export of nitrate towards streams and lakes. To attain the goal, variables like soil loss, rainfall intensity, topography, soil type, forest composition and environmental disturbances such as hardwood harvesting or wildfires were organized in a conceptual yield model. Because some parameters were potentially collinear, a robust multivariate statistical technique was selected to execute the conceptual model and perform the aforementioned ranking, namely Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression. This technique was tested with a sample of 60 forested watersheds (>70% of forest occupation), being subject to a double-validation process to ensure prediction capability. According to final regression coefficients, soil erosion seems to regulate nitrate distribution across the basins, because soil loss and type, rainfall intensity and topography explained around 60% of nitrate yield variance. The major importance of erosion is followed by a moderate role of biochemical processes such as nitrification or nutrient uptake, which accounted for approximately 15% of nitrate yield variance. In this case, deciduous forests and scrubland seem to behave as net sinks of nitrate while coniferous and mixed forests seem to act dually, as net sources or sinks. The least important parameters are the environmental disturbances, explaining no more than 5% of nitrate yield variance. The results of PLS regression were coupled in a scenario analysis with measures designed to protect soil from erosion and surface water from eutrophication. These interventions are to be implemented until 2045, according to regional plans of forest management. Considering the key role of erosion in explaining nitrate dynamics across the catchments, it was not surprising to verify that soil protection measures may reduce nitrate yields by some 35% of their current values.

A framework model for investigating the export of phosphorus to surface waters in forested watersheds: Implications to management.

The present study was developed in four sub-basins of rivers Cávado and Douro, located in the North of mainland Portugal. The goal was to identify main stressors as well as driving and attenuating processes responsible for the presence of phosphorus in masses of surface water in those catchments. To accomplish the goal, the basins were selected where a quality station was present at the outlet, the forest occupation was greater than 75% and the phosphorus concentrations have repeatedly exceeded the threshold for the good ecological status in the period 2000-2006. Further, in two basins the quality station was installed in a lotic (free-flow water) environment whereas in the other two was placed in a lentic (dammed water) environment. The ArcMap GIS-based software package was used for the spatial analysis of stressors and processes. The yields of phosphorus vary widely across the studied basins, from 0.2-30 kg·ha(-1)·yr(-1). The results point to post-fire soil erosion and hardwood clear cuttings as leading factors of phosphorus exports across the watersheds, with precipitation intensity being the key variable of erosion. However, yields can be attenuated by sediment deposition along the pathway from burned or managed areas to water masses. The observed high yields and concentrations of phosphorus in surface water encompass serious implications for water resources management in the basins, amplified in the lentic cases by potential release of phosphorus from lake sediments especially during the summer season. Therefore, a number of measures were proposed as regards wildfire combat, reduction of phosphorus exports after tree cuts, attenuation of soil erosion and improvement of riparian buffers, all with the purpose of preventing phosphorus concentrations to go beyond the regulatory good ecological status.

Integrative assessment of river damming impacts on aquatic fauna in a Portuguese reservoir

The impacts of river damming on aquatic fauna are assessed and then integrated across hierarchical scales, portrayed as nested circles. The outer circles characterize the studied site for habitat disturbance and hydrologic regime during the construction and filling phases. The inner circles characterize the construction and filling phase zones for water quality parameters and aquatic fauna. The procedure for integrating the impacts comprises two consecutive stages: in the task stage, inner circles are characterized through field and laboratory work involving sampling and analyses of water aliquots and aquatic fauna; in the impact assessment stage, circle data are processed in ecological and statistical algorithms, which allow identification of changes in abundance and composition of aquatic fauna communities and their integration with changes in water quality parameters across the construction and filling phase zones. The integrative assessment of river damming impacts on aquatic fauna was carried out in the Sabor River dam (Portugal). This dam created two reservoirs: primary and secondary. Changes in water quality caused by dam construction and stream water impoundment were significant, marked by increases in temperature and electric conductivity downstream, accumulation of phosphorus and nitrogen in the reservoirs triggering the growth of algae and the increase of chlorophyll a, and drop of transparency. These changes were aggravated in the secondary reservoir. The consequences of water deterioration for aquatic fauna were severe, marked by abrupt declines of native fish species and invasion of exotic species even upwards the reservoirs. The ecological status determined from ecological quality ratios of benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages were also affected, changing from good-fair in the unaffected watercourses to fair-poor in the lakes.