Mário G. Pereira

Impacts of climate change and land-use scenarios on Margaritifera margaritifera, an environmental indicator and endangered species

In this study, we assess the impacts of future climate and land-use in the Beça River (northern Portugal) under different scenarios and how this will translate into the conservation status of the endangered pearl mussel Margaritifera margaritifera (Linnaeus, 1758). This species is currently present in several stretches of the Beça River that still hold adequate ecological conditions. However, the species is threatened by projected declines in precipitation for the 21st century, with implication on the river flows and water depths that might decrease below the species requisites. This situation could be especially critical during summer conditions since the ecological flows may not be assured and several river stretches may be converted into stagnant isolated pools. The habitat connectivity will also be affected with reverberating effects on the mobility of Salmo trutta, the host of M. margaritifera, with consequences in the reproduction and recruitment of pearl mussels. In addition, human-related threats mostly associated with the presence of dams and an predicted increases in wildfires in the future. While the presence of dams may decrease even further the connectivity and river flow, with wildfires the major threat will be related to the wash out of burned areas during storms, eventually causing the disappearance of the mussels, especially the juveniles. In view of future climate and land-use change scenarios, conservation strategies are proposed, including the negotiation of ecological flows with the dam promoters, the replanting of riparian vegetation along the water course and the reintroduction of native tree species throughout the catchment.

Water resources planning for a river basin with recurrent wildfires

Situated in the north of Portugal, the Beça River basin is subject to recurrent wildfires, which produce serious consequences on soil erosion and nutrient exports, namely by deteriorating the water quality in the basin. In the present study, the ECO Lab tool embedded in the Mike Hydro Basin software was used for the evaluation of river water quality, in particular the dissolved concentration of phosphorus in the period 1990-2013. The phosphorus concentrations are influenced by the burned area and the river flow discharge, but the hydrologic conditions prevail: in a wet year (2000, 16.3 km(2) of burned area) with an average flow of 16.4 m(3)·s(-1) the maximum phosphorus concentration was as low as 0.02 mg·L(-1), while in a dry year (2005, 24.4 km(2) of burned area) with an average flow of 2 m(3)·s(-1) the maximum concentration was as high as 0.57 mg·L(-1). Phosphorus concentrations in the water bodies exceeded the bounds of good ecological status in 2005 and between 2009 and 2012, water for human consumption in 2009 and water for multiple uses in 2010. The River Covas, a right margin tributary of Beça River, is the most appropriate stream as regards the use of water for human consumption, because it presents the biggest water potential with the best water quality. Since wildfires in the basin result essentially from natural causes and climate change forecasts indicate an increase in their frequency and intensity in the near future, forestry measures are proposed to include as a priority the conversion of stands of maritime pine in mixed stands of conifer and hardwood species.

Controls and forecasts of nitrate yields in forested watersheds: A view over mainland Portugal.

A study on nitrate yields was conducted in forested watersheds of mainland Portugal. The prime goal was to rank parameters in descending order of their contribution to the export of nitrate towards streams and lakes. To attain the goal, variables like soil loss, rainfall intensity, topography, soil type, forest composition and environmental disturbances such as hardwood harvesting or wildfires were organized in a conceptual yield model. Because some parameters were potentially collinear, a robust multivariate statistical technique was selected to execute the conceptual model and perform the aforementioned ranking, namely Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression. This technique was tested with a sample of 60 forested watersheds (>70% of forest occupation), being subject to a double-validation process to ensure prediction capability. According to final regression coefficients, soil erosion seems to regulate nitrate distribution across the basins, because soil loss and type, rainfall intensity and topography explained around 60% of nitrate yield variance. The major importance of erosion is followed by a moderate role of biochemical processes such as nitrification or nutrient uptake, which accounted for approximately 15% of nitrate yield variance. In this case, deciduous forests and scrubland seem to behave as net sinks of nitrate while coniferous and mixed forests seem to act dually, as net sources or sinks. The least important parameters are the environmental disturbances, explaining no more than 5% of nitrate yield variance. The results of PLS regression were coupled in a scenario analysis with measures designed to protect soil from erosion and surface water from eutrophication. These interventions are to be implemented until 2045, according to regional plans of forest management. Considering the key role of erosion in explaining nitrate dynamics across the catchments, it was not surprising to verify that soil protection measures may reduce nitrate yields by some 35% of their current values.

A framework model for investigating the export of phosphorus to surface waters in forested watersheds: Implications to management.

The present study was developed in four sub-basins of rivers Cávado and Douro, located in the North of mainland Portugal. The goal was to identify main stressors as well as driving and attenuating processes responsible for the presence of phosphorus in masses of surface water in those catchments. To accomplish the goal, the basins were selected where a quality station was present at the outlet, the forest occupation was greater than 75% and the phosphorus concentrations have repeatedly exceeded the threshold for the good ecological status in the period 2000-2006. Further, in two basins the quality station was installed in a lotic (free-flow water) environment whereas in the other two was placed in a lentic (dammed water) environment. The ArcMap GIS-based software package was used for the spatial analysis of stressors and processes. The yields of phosphorus vary widely across the studied basins, from 0.2-30 kg·ha(-1)·yr(-1). The results point to post-fire soil erosion and hardwood clear cuttings as leading factors of phosphorus exports across the watersheds, with precipitation intensity being the key variable of erosion. However, yields can be attenuated by sediment deposition along the pathway from burned or managed areas to water masses. The observed high yields and concentrations of phosphorus in surface water encompass serious implications for water resources management in the basins, amplified in the lentic cases by potential release of phosphorus from lake sediments especially during the summer season. Therefore, a number of measures were proposed as regards wildfire combat, reduction of phosphorus exports after tree cuts, attenuation of soil erosion and improvement of riparian buffers, all with the purpose of preventing phosphorus concentrations to go beyond the regulatory good ecological status.

Atmospheric conditions associated with extreme fire activity in the Western Mediterranean region

Active fire information provided by TERRA and AQUA instruments on-board sun-synchronous polar MODIS platform is used to describe fire activity in the Western Mediterranean and to identify and characterize the synoptic patterns of several meteorological fields associated with the occurrence of extreme fire activity episodes (EEs). The spatial distribution of the fire pixels during the period of 2003-2012 leads to the identification of two most affected sub-regions, namely the Northern and Western parts of the Iberian Peninsula (NWIP) and Northern Africa (NAFR). The temporal distribution of the fire pixels in these two sub-regions is characterized by: (i) high and non-concurrent inter- and intra-annual variability with maximum values during the summer of 2003 and 2005 in NWIP and 2007 and 2012 in NAFR; and, (ii) high intra-annual variability dominated by a prominent annual cycle with a main peak centred in August in both sub-regions and a less pronounced secondary peak in March only evident in NWIP region. The 34 EEs identified were grouped according to the location, period of occurrence and spatial configuration of the associated synoptic patterns into 3 clusters (NWIP-summer, NWIP-winter and NAFR-summer). Results from the composite analysis reveal similar fire weather conditions (statistically significant positive anomalies of air temperature and negative anomalies of air relative humidity) but associated with different circulation patterns at lower and mid-levels of the atmosphere associated with the occurrence of EEs in each cluster of the Western Mediterranean region.

Space-time clustering analysis of wildfires: The influence of dataset characteristics, fire prevention policy decisions, weather and climate

The present study focuses on the dependence of the space-time permutation scan statistics (STPSS) (1) on the input databases characteristics and (2) on the use of this methodology to assess changes on the fire regime due to different type of climate and fire management activities. Based on the very strong relationship between weather and the fire incidence in Portugal, the detected clusters will be interpreted in terms of the atmospheric conditions. Apart from being the country most affected by the fires in the European context, Portugal meets all the conditions required to carry out this study, namely: (i) two long and comprehensive official datasets, i.e. the Portuguese Rural Fire Database (PRFD) and the National Mapping Burnt Areas (NMBA), respectively based on ground and satellite measurements; (ii) the two types of climate (Csb in the north and Csa in the south) that characterizes the Mediterranean basin regions most affected by the fires also divide the mainland Portuguese area; and, (iii) the national plan for the defence of forest against fires was approved a decade ago and it is now reasonable to assess its impacts. Results confirmed (1) the influence of the datasets characteristics on the detected clusters, (2) the existence of two different fire regimes in the country promoted by the different types of climate, (3) the positive impacts of the fire prevention policy decisions and (4) the ability of the STPSS to correctly identify clusters, regarding their number, location, and space-time size in spite of eventual space and/or time splits of the datasets. Finally, the role of the weather on days when clustered fires were active was confirmed for the classes of small, medium and large fires.

Space-time clustering analysis performance of an aggregated dataset

This study focuses on the use of space-time permutation scan statistics (STPSS) to assess both the existence and the statistical significance of clusters on aggregated datasets. The investigated case study is represented from the Portuguese Rural Fire Database (PRFD) where the fire occurrences are georeferenced to an administrative unit level. The main goals are: (i) assessing the robustness of the STPSS to correctly detect clusters on aggregated datasets; (ii) testing the existence of space-time clustering in the PRFD; and (iii) characterizing the detected clusters. A synthetic database was designed to assess the potential bias introduced by aggregation of the data on the performance of the STPSS method. Results confirmed the ability of the STPSS to correctly identify clusters, regarding their number, location, and spatio-temporal dimensions and provided recommendations about the parameters setting of the scanning window. Finally, a discussion of the identified clusters on the PRFD is presented. Display Omitted We used space-time permutation scan statistics (STPSS).Assessment of STPSS over an aggregated synthetic dataset.STPSS is able to correctly detect significant space-time fire clusters in Portugal.Detection performance depends on the characteristics of the scanning window and database.Detected clusters were characterized by socioeconomic and environmental factors.

Climate change impacts in the design of drainage systems: case study of Portugal

AbstractThis paper aims to assess the necessity of updating the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves used in Portugal to design building storm-water drainage systems. A comparative analysis of the design was performed for the three predefined rainfall regions in Portugal using the IDF curves currently in use and estimated for future decades. Data for recent and future climate conditions simulated by a global and regional climate model chain are used to estimate possible changes of rainfall extremes and its implications for the drainage systems. The methodology includes the disaggregation of precipitation up to subhourly scales, the robust development of IDF curves, and the correction of model bias. Obtained results indicate that projected changes are largest for the plains in southern Portugal (5–33%) than for mountainous regions (3–9%) and that these trends are consistent with projected changes in the long-term 95th percentile of the daily precipitation throughout the 21st century. The authors concl...

Dissipative work in thermodynamics

This work explores the concept of dissipative work and shows that such a kind of work is an invariant non-negative quantity. This feature is then used to get a new insight into adiabatic irreversible processes; for instance, why the final temperature in any adiabatic irreversible process is always higher than that attained in a reversible process having the same initial state and equal final pressure or volume. Based on the concept of identical processes, numerical simulations of adiabatic irreversible compression and expansion were performed, enabling a better understanding of differences between configuration and dissipative work. The positive nature of the dissipative work was used to discuss the case where the dissipated energy ends up in the surroundings, while the invariance of such work under a system–surroundings interchange enabled the resulting modification in thermodynamical quantities to be determined. The ideas presented in this study are primarily intended for undergraduate students with a background in thermodynamics, but they may also be of interest to graduate students and teachers.

Structural fire risk: The case of Portugal

This study is focused in mapping the structural fire risk in the vegetated area of Portugal using a deterministic approach based on the concept of fire risk currently accepted by the scientific community which consists in the combination of the fire hazard and the potential economic damage. The fire susceptibility map of Verde and Zêzere (2010) was adopted and updated by the use of a higher resolution digital terrain model, longer burnt area perimeter dataset (1975-2013) and the entire set of Corine land cover inventories. The susceptibility was mapped with five classes to be in accordance with the Portuguese law and the results confirms the good performance of this model not only in the favourability scores but also in the predictive values. Three different scenarios of (maximum, mean, and minimum annual) burnt area were consider to estimate the fire hazard which allow to estimate the likelihood of a pixel to burn (ranging between 0% and 20%) depending on the class to which it belongs and on the future burnt area scenario. The potential economic damage was estimated with the vulnerability scores and monetary values of species defined in the literature and by law. The obtained fire risk map identifies the areas more prone to be affected by fires in the future and provides an estimate of the economic damage of the fire which will be a valuable tool for forest and fire managers and to minimize the economic and environmental consequences of vegetation fires in Portugal.