Rachel McCloy

A little learning is a dangerous thing: an experimental demonstration of ignorance-driven inference.

Studies of ignorance-driven decision making have been employed to analyse when ignorance should prove advantageous on theoretical grounds or else they have been employed to examine whether human behaviour is consistent with an ignorance-driven inference strategy (e.g., the recognition heuristic). In the current study we examine whether—under conditions where such inferences might be expected—the advantages that theoretical analyses predict are evident in human performance data. A single experiment shows that, when asked to make relative wealth judgements, participants reliably use recognition as a basis for their judgements. Their wealth judgements under these conditions are reliably more accurate when some of the target names are unknown than when participants recognize all of the names (a “less-is-more effect”). These results are consistent across a number of variations: the number of options given to participants and the nature of the wealth judgement. A basic model of recognition-based inference predicts these effects.

An investigation of thermal comfort adaptation behaviour in office buildings in the UK

Around 40% of total energy consumption in the UK is consumed by creating comfortable indoor environment for occupants. Occupants’ behaviour in terms of achieving thermal comfort could have a significant impact on a building’s energy consumption. Therefore, understanding the interactions of occupants with their buildings would be essential to provide a thermal comfort environment that is less reliance on energy-intensive heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems, to meet energy-saving and carbon emission targets. This paper presents the findings of a year-long field study conducted in non-air-conditioned office buildings in the UK. Occupants’ adaptive responses in terms of technological and personal dimensions are dynamic processes which could vary with both indoor and outdoor thermal conditions. The adaptive behaviours of occupants in the surveyed building show substantial seasonal and daily variations. Our study shows that non-physical factors such as habit could influence the adaptive responses of occupants. However, occupants sometimes displayed inappropriate adaptive behaviour, which could lead to a misuse of energy. This paper attempts to illustrate how occupants would adapt and interact with their built environment and consequently contribute to development of a guide for future design/refurbishment of buildings and to develop energy management systems for a comfortable built environment.

The spatial impact of visual distractors on saccade latency

Remote transient changes in the environment, such as the onset of visual distractors, impact on the execution of target directed saccadic eye movements. Studies that have examined the latency of the saccade response have shown conflicting results. When there was an element of target selection, saccade latency increased as the distance between distractor and target increased. In contrast, when target selection is minimized by restricting the target to appear on one axis position, latency has been found to be slowest when the distractor is shown at fixation and reduces as it moves away from this position, rather than from the target. Here we report four experiments examining saccade latency as target and distractor positions are varied. We find support for both a dependence of saccade latency on distractor distance from target and from fixation: saccade latency was longer when distractor is shown close to fixation and even longer still when shown in an opposite location (180°) to the target. We suggest that this is due to inhibitory interactions between the distractor, fixation and the target interfering with fixation disengagement and target selection.

Understanding cumulative risk

This paper summarizes the theory of simple cumulative risks—for example, the risk of food poisoning from the consumption of a series of portions of tainted food. Problems concerning such risks are extraordinarily difficult for naïve individuals, and the paper explains the reasons for this difficulty. It describes how naïve individuals usually attempt to estimate cumulative risks, and it outlines a computer program that models these methods. This account predicts that estimates can be improved if problems of cumulative risk are framed so that individuals can focus on the appropriate subset of cases. The paper reports two experiments that corroborated this prediction. They also showed that whether problems are stated in terms of frequencies (80 out of 100 people got food poisoning) or in terms of percentages (80% of people got food poisoning) did not reliably affect accuracy.

Saccadic eye movements as an index of perceptual decision-making.

One of the most common decisions we make is the one about where to move our eyes next. Here we examine the impact that processing the evidence supporting competing options has on saccade programming. Participants were asked to saccade to one of two possible visual targets indicated by a cloud of moving dots. We varied the evidence which supported saccade target choice by manipulating the proportion of dots moving towards one target or the other. The task was found to become easier as the evidence supporting target choice increased. This was reflected in an increase in percent correct and a decrease in saccade latency. The trajectory and landing position of saccades were found to deviate away from the non-selected target reflecting the choice of the target and the inhibition of the non-target. The extent of the deviation was found to increase with amount of sensory evidence supporting target choice. This shows that decision-making processes involved in saccade target choice have an impact on the spatial control of a saccade. This would seem to extend the notion of the processes involved in the control of saccade metrics beyond a competition between visual stimuli to one also reflecting a competition between options.

Reaching a verdict

Two experiments, using a mock legal case, confirmed the causal role of arguments in verdict decisions and explored the process involved. Experiment 1 showed that verdicts varied with the strength of counter-arguments and Experiment 2 showed that the use of background information that undermined such arguments determined the verdict reached. Such results confirm the causal role of arguments but do not speak to the representations constructed. In both experiments we analysed the reasons proposed for verdicts. Participants generally represented the state of affairs, and conjectured state of affairs, to which the arguments referred. Experiment 2 also asked participants about the number of causal possibilities they envisaged. Confidence in the verdict was moderated by the strength of counter-arguments but in different ways for those who envisaged a single causal account as opposed to two causal accounts. In the former case, confidence decreased with the rated strength of counter-arguments. In the latter case, confidence increased. We suggest that verdicts are abductive explanations of the events generated through a process of mental simulation.

An Analytic Hierarchy Process Model for Assessing Occupants’ Adaptations to Thermal Comfort in Offices

The adaptations people utilize in response to ambient physical environmental variations are critical factors for the thermal comfort of occupants in real environments. From the adaptive point of view, thermal comfort is not solely dependent on physical thermal stimuli, but involves complex interactions between the occupants’ adaptations to the physical environmental stimuli and socio-economic-cultural issues. Under certain circumstances, the adaptation of occupants to their environment may be affected by physiological, behavioural and psychological factors. The interaction of the three adaptations further affects the extent of the thermal comfort the occupants finally feel. This paper introduces a method for the evaluation of the weight of contributions of three categories of adaptations to attain thermal comfort in office environments using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The AHP is an ideal tool for decision-making where multiple factors are involved. Through solving a pairwise comparison matrix, the weight of each adaptation category can be produced. This paper aims to develop an empirical occupants’ adaptation-based thermal comfort model for office environments. The feasibility and validity of such the model has been verified by a pilot study.

Visualizing Volcanic Ash Forecasts: Scientist and Stakeholder Decisions Using Different Graphical Representations and Conflicting Forecasts

AbstractDuring volcanic eruptions, Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres issue ash advisories for aviation showing the forecasted outermost extent of the ash cloud. During the 2010 Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajokull eruption, the Met Office produced supplementary forecasts of quantitative ash concentration, due to demand from airlines. Additionally, satellite retrievals of estimated volcanic ash concentration are now available. To test how these additional graphical representations of volcanic ash affect flight decisions, whether users infer uncertainty in graphical forecasts of volcanic ash, and how decisions are made when given conflicting forecasts, a survey was conducted of 25 delegates representing U.K. research and airline operations dealing with volcanic ash. Respondents were more risk seeking with safer flight paths and risk averse with riskier flight paths when given location and concentration forecasts compared to when given only the outermost extent of the ash. Respondents representing operations were ...

The concurrent programming of saccades

Sequences of saccades have been shown to be prepared concurrently however it remains unclear exactly what aspects of those saccades are programmed in parallel. To examine this participants were asked to make one or two target-driven saccades: a reflexive saccade; a voluntary saccade; a reflexive then a voluntary saccade; or vice versa. During the first response the position of a second target was manipulated. The new location of the second saccade target was found to impact on second saccade latencies and second saccade accuracy showing that some aspects of the second saccade program are prepared in parallel with the first. However, differences were found in the specific pattern of effects for each sequence type. These differences fit well within a general framework for saccade control in which a common priority map for saccade control is computed and the influence of saccade programs on one another depends not so much on the types of saccade being produced but rather on the rate at which their programs develop.

Time to decide? Simplicity and congruity in comparative judgment

What is the relationship between magnitude judgments relying on directly available characteristics versus probabilistic cues? Question frame was manipulated in a comparative judgment task previously assumed to involve inference across a probabilistic mental model (e.g., “Which city is largest”—the “larger” question—vs. “Which city is smallest”—the “smaller” question). Participants identified either the largest or smallest city (Experiments 1a and 2) or the richest or poorest person (Experiment 1b) in a 3-alternative forced-choice (3-AFC) task (Experiment 1) or a 2-AFC task (Experiment 2). Response times revealed an interaction between question frame and the number of options recognized. When participants were asked the smaller question, response times were shorter when none of the options were recognized. The opposite pattern was found when participants were asked the larger question: response time was shorter when all options were recognized. These task–stimuli congruity results in judgment under uncertainty are consistent with, and predicted by, theories of magnitude comparison, which make use of deductive inferences from declarative knowledge.