Rachel Tiller

Stakeholder Perceptions of Links between Environmental Changes to their Socio-Ecological System and their Adaptive Capacity in the Region of Troms, Norway

Climate change affects the marine environment at all levels of governance. At a global level, researchers expect the projected increase in sea surface temperature to facilitate large changes in the marine food web, which in turn will affect both global fisheries and aquaculture. At the local level, government and stakeholders want to know whether and how this affects their local communities and their adaptive capacity in light of this. Research suggests that risk communication of the effects of changes in the marine food web suffers from stakeholders` short-term mentality and narrow boundaries. This in turn can lead to an underestimation of the potential risks associated with climate change. We explore this theory by mapping the perceptions of marine stakeholders in the region of Troms, Norway. We first developed cognitive maps in a workshop setting, and then used system conceptualization to analyze the feedback mechanisms of the system qualitatively using fuzzy cognitive mapping. We examined the outcomes and compared them for different scenarios using a simple MatLab script. Results demonstrated that stakeholders did not underestimate their risks to climate change. They were aware of environmental changes, and they perceived that a changing climate was the cause of this change, and that it was indeed affecting their livelihoods – and would continue to do so in the future.

Coming Soon to a Fjord Near You: Future Jellyfish Scenarios in a Changing Climate

ABSTRACT Over the last decades, a dense population of the deep-sea/oceanic scyphozoan jellyfish Periphylla periphylla has established itself as top predator in the Trondheimsfjord in Norway, which has caused the traditional fisheries in this fjord to suffer. This was, however, not the first fjord this jellyfish invaded, and data suggest that it will not be the last one, either. With warmer temperatures, the jellyfish is moving northward in Norway, but not all fjords are created equal, and it is not thriving or taking up residence just anywhere. The current article explores three fjords in which Periphylla periphylla has become the top predator and outcompeted former ones. The main question of interest is why the jellyfish becomes dominant in one fjord and not another. The next question is which other Norwegian fjords further north exist with similar characteristics where we therefore would expect Periphylla periphylla to proliferate in the future. The latter is important from a policy and adaptation perspective for the local community of people, since the proliferation of the species unmistakably leads to fewer fish for commercial harvest and potentially less attractive waters for tourism purposes. Results show that three northern fjords, the Skjerstadfjorden the Holandsfjorden, and Stordjupna in the Vestfjord appear to be particularly vulnerable to a future Periphylla periphylla invasion.

Regime Management at the Bottom of the Food Web

Fishing down the food chain is a controversial issue that demands further exploration. Redfeed is a marine species located on the second to last level on the food web. It is also one of the potential saviors of the aquaculture industry. The role of effective management of this species is of utmost importance to avoid the potential catastrophe associated with its overharvesting. Using a calculation of behavioral effectiveness, a blueprint redfeed regime is compared with the Convention for the Conservation of the Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), an ecosystem-based management regime with the now famous krill as its key species. Though the regimes are similar in nature, their geopolitical differences suggest that a future redfeed regime will be effective even though CCAMLR has not been. Ensuring that the redfeed is not merely incorporated into existing regimes, but is treated separately in an ecosystem-based regime, will alleviate the interplay this future redfeed regime otherwise would encounter.Fishing down the food chain is a controversial issue that demands further exploration. Redfeed is a marine species located on the second to last level on the food web. It is also one of the potential saviors of the aquaculture industry. The role of effective management of this species is of utmost importance to avoid the potential catastrophe associated with its overharvesting. Using a calculation of behavioral effectiveness, a blueprint redfeed regime is compared with the Convention for the Conservation of the Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), an ecosystem-based management regime with the now famous krill as its key species. Though the regimes are similar in nature, their geopolitical differences suggest that a future redfeed regime will be effective even though CCAMLR has not been. Ensuring that the redfeed is not merely incorporated into existing regimes, but is treated separately in an ecosystem-based regime, will alleviate the interplay this future redfeed regime otherwise would encounter.

To adapt or not adapt: assessing the adaptive capacity of artisanal fishers in the Trondheimsfjord (Norway) to jellyfish (Periphylla periphylla) bloom and purse seiners

Abstract Worldwide increases of jellyfish has occurred during the last several decades. A dense population of a large scyphozoan jellyfish, Periphylla periphylla, has established itself as top predator in the Trondheimsfjord in Norway, impacting traditional fisheries. On this background we discuss the adaptive capacity of artisanal fishers and stakeholder involvement in environmental management. A serendipitous discovery was that fishers report that their capacity to adapt to the presence of jellyfish in fact was sufficient. What they could not adapt to, within the context of jellyfish proliferation, was top-down decisions from the national government allowing purse seiners into the fjord to harvest Sprat Sprattus sprattus and Atlantic Herring Clupea harengus rest quotas and thereby also large bycatches of the local codfishes. This harvest was perceived more detrimental to their fishery than was the jellyfish invasion. Relative to fisheries managements choice of regulatory mechanisms during times of climatic change, we argue that by involving stakeholders intimately, the resulting policy advice will be experienced bottom-up and, thus, more legitimate and serendipitous results of a critical nature are more likely to surface.

New Resources and Old Regimes: Will the Harvest of Zooplankton Bring Critical Changes to the Svalbard Fisheries Protection Zone?

This article explores the options that the Norwegian government has when it comes to the management of harvesting a new resource (redfeed) in the politically tense area surrounding Svalbard. The article argues that, by preparing a blueprint regime solely for redfeed rather than allowing the resource to be a catalyst for conflict, the impacts of introducing the fishery will be less dramatic.

Agent-Based Simulation of Stakeholder Behaviour through Evolutionary Game Theory

Aquaculture organizations establish facilities at the coast in Froya, Norway. The facilities block the surrounding area from fishing and cause environmental damage to close natural resources. Fishers who depend on those natural resources get the opportunity to influence the aquaculture expansion through complaints about the municipality’s coastal plan. Statistics show that fishers don’t complain as much as expected. This work aims to investigate why. An agent-based simulation is developed in order to model the fishers as intelligent agents with complex interaction. Fishermen’s decision making is simulated through an artificial neural network which adapts its behavior (i.e. weights) by “learning-by-imitation”, a method in evolutionary game theory, from other stakeholders’ behavior in the environment. The promising results show that with further development the simulation system may be part of a decision support system that promotes policies that are fair for the stakeholders.

International regime analyses in the northeast Atlantic

The zooplankton redfeed may need an international management regime in the future. An optimal resource regime from Norway’s point of view has already been hypothesized Tiller (J Environ Dev 19 (2):191–214, 2010). We expand on this hypothesis and analyze the regime preferences of other interested states: Russia, Iceland and the EU. These states will all react and respond differently to the advent of a new resource in the Northeast Atlantic and have different policy interests to bring to the negotiation table than the initiator Norway. One cannot analyze international regimes without fully comprehending the perspectives of other actors involved. It is therefore critical to look at the issues and concerns that are likely to arise on the international arena during regime negotiations and develop scenarios that account for the possible events that could materialize at that stage. This could potentially produce a more predictable end scenario in the case of the future redfeed regime, especially for Norway. In explaining this, we sketch four possible future scenarios, and proceed with discussing them in light of the potential preferences of the key actors involved. Given the enticing nature of studying a regime that has not yet materialized, the case of redfeed in the Northeast Atlantic is explored and discussed from the vantage point of actors whose cooperation with Norway is critical for the successful future operationalization of the international management regime for redfeed, namely Russia, Iceland, and the EU. Using regime formation theory and scenario analysis, mapping out the future negotiation stage of the regime formation process is undertaken. The article argues that Norway’s role as a driver for the development of this regime will steer the negotiation process and ensure the outcome that is most beneficial for Norway, with Russia acquiescent rather than aggressive.

Ocean plastics and the BBNJ treaty—is plastic frightening enough to insert itself into the BBNJ treaty, or do we need to wait for a treaty of its own?

Marine litter, and plastics in particular, is fast rising to the top of the political agenda at all levels of governance. The popular phrase today, evoked at all political meetings, in all speeches and at all cocktail parties, is that by 2050, there will be more plastics than fish in the ocean. This is a simple and valid prediction naturally, since global fish stocks are fished at capacity and therefore not increasing in number—whereas the inflow of plastics into the ocean is continuous and rising. Stopping litter from entering the marine ecosystem is therefore the logical step to stop the prediction from coming true. Do we have time to wait for the international community to come together to ratify a treaty text on this, with the required years of negotiations in between, though? Granted, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) passed 13 nonbinding resolutions in December of 2017 of which one was on marine microplastics. They are still nonbinding though and without any teeth or financial instruments attached. The General Assembly, however, adopted resolution 72/249 also in December 2017, on a conference spanning a 2-year period, starting in 2018, where the end goal is to agree on a treaty on the protection of biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction (BBNJ). We argue in this article that, rather than waiting for a treaty that is plastics specific, a path to fast action could be to incorporate this into these negotiations, since plastic is interweaved as a substantial stressor to the system and to biodiversity in all areas of the ocean.

Accountability as a Governance Paradox in the Norwegian Salmon Aquaculture Industry

The aquaculture industry in Norway currently represents 60% (US

Stakeholder driven future scenarios as an element of interdisciplinary management tools; the case of future offshore aquaculture development and the potential effects on fishermen in Santa Barbara, California

5.4 billion) of Norwegian seafood exports. Of these, farmed Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar) represents over 80% (850,000 tonnes). These production levels are driven by a strong and growing demand for farmed fish, and has a stated political goal of increased growth by a factor of 5 by 2050 in Norway alone. However, growth is potentially more challenging without the public support and trust in the governance regime that regulates the industry. The theoretical framework of this paper rests on accountability theory, whereby the research team highlighted and tested the paradox between the ideal and the actual practices on a group of stakeholders representing the aquaculture industry and municipal, regional and sector management in northern Norway relative to their interactions and need thereof – versus the expectations of the public. The findings of a workshop were used to develop a conceptual model and test our theory on stakeholder driven future scenarios using a combination of systems thinking and fuzzy cognitive mapping. We found that stakeholders and management alike in a workshop setting valued flexibility of legislation and expert opinions highly, whereby regulatory standardization is not prioritized – in line with soft accountability. The industry acknowledged, though, that the public perception and negative media attention of the industry, in turn depended on hard accountability.