Rafael Soria

The Vulnerable Amazon: The Impact of Climate Change on the Untapped Potential of Hydropower Systems

Climate change can have an impact on natural and human systems. This is usually the case with renewable-energy-based energy systems, given their close dependence on climate conditions. For instance, long-term changes in temperature, precipitation, and wind shear, among other factors, can affect the operation of existing energy systems and even compromise the viability of new entrepreneurships. Therefore, global climate change can add a significant amount of uncertainty to the already uncertain operation of renewable energy systems. This article gives an overview of the issues related to climate change impacts on hydropower production with a focus on Amazonian regions.

The role of CSP in Brazil: A multi-model analysis

MESSAGE, TIMES and REMIX-CEM are potential tools for modelling a larger penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) into the Brazilian power system. They also allow devising the opportunities that concentrated solar power (CSP) plants offer to the power system and to the wider energy system. There are different opportunities for CSP in Brazil in the short and medium term, consolidating this technology as a feasible alternative for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in Brazil. This work verified that CSP is a cost-effective option only under very stringent mitigation scenarios (4DS and 2DS) and when carbon capture and storage (CCS) is not available. Still, according to the findings of REMIX-CEM-B, CSP can provide firm energy and dispatchable capacity in the Northeast region of Brazil, optimally complementing wind and PV generation. Moreover, CSP can offer additional flexibility to the Northeast power system, especially during winter and after 2030.