Rafael Yusupov

Multiple models of information fusion processes: Quality definition and estimation

Abstract Now problems of a multi-criteria quality estimation of models as well as a justified selection of task-oriented models are still not investigated thoroughly enough. The importance of the problems increases when a research object is described not via a single model, but with a set or a complex of multiple models including models from different classes or combined models such as combined analytical-simulation models, logical-algebraic ones, etc. The aforementioned problems are being investigated within the theory of model quality control. The description of main elements of this theory and its applications is the primary goal of the paper.

Methodological Basis of Socio-Cyber-Physical Systems Structure-Dynamics Control and Management

The main objects of our investigation are socio-cyber-physical systems (SCPS). The SCPS is the fusion of the socio, the cyber, the physical space and structures. In this case, the problems of SCPS complexity management and control are actual modern problems. The solving of these problems involve interdisciplinary researches in mathematics, cybernetics, economics, biology, physics, and computer technologies. Therefore, the paper presents new results of interdisplinary research in the field of SCPS structure-dynamics control and management theory. Our investigations have shown that this theory can be regarded as branch of neocybernetics.

Development of intelligent information systems for operational river-flood forecasting

The structural framework and practical implementation of operational river flood forecasting systems, based on integrated use of state-of-the-art information technologies and hydrological simulation methods, are described. They exemplify the practical implementation of an interdisciplinary approach that uses broadly the Earth’s remote sensing data, service architecture–based forecasting systems, and an intelligent interface to select the type and adjust the parameters of hydrological models, providing the interpretation, user-friendly representation, and accessibility of forecast results as web services. A practical trial of the system’s prototype proved the possibility to obtain high-accuracy operational (from several hours to several days) forecasts for the inundation areas and depths of river valley sections.

The Determination of Feasible Control Variables for Geoengineering and Weather Modification Based on the Theory of Sensitivity in Dynamical Systems

Geophysical cybernetics allows for exploring weather and climate modification (geoengineering) as an optimal control problem in which the Earth’s climate system is considered as a control system and the role of controller is given to human operators. In mathematical models used in climate studies control actions that manipulate the weather and climate can be expressed via variations in model parameters that act as controls. In this paper, we propose the ?instability-sensitivity? approach that allows for determining feasible control variables in geoengineering. The method is based on the sensitivity analysis of mathematical models that describe various types of natural instability phenomena. The applicability of this technique is illustrated by a model of atmospheric baroclinic instability since this physical mechanism plays a significant role in the general circulation of the atmosphere and, consequently, in climate formation. The growth rate of baroclinic unstable waves is taken as an indicator of control manipulations. The information obtained via calculated sensitivity coefficients is very beneficial for assessing the physical feasibility of methods of control of the large-scale atmospheric dynamics and for designing optimal control systems for climatic processes. It also provides insight into potential future changes in baroclinic waves, as a result of a changing climate.

Influence of Computer Science and Information Technologies on Progress in Theory and Control Systems for Complex Plants

Abstract Current status and perspectives of an interdisciplinary knowledge domain including informatics, computer science, control theory, and IT applications were analyzed. Scientific-and-methodological and applied problems of IT integration with existing and future industrial and socio-economical structures were stated.

Fuzzy Identification on the Basis of Regression Models of Parametric Membership Function

we suggested a model of competitiveness of brand product, which takes into account 10 factors. The model is based on 52 fuzzy rules of type. Potential of application of the model for control of competitiveness of brand product is shown. We state a problem of learning of fuzzy model of competitiveness on the basis of experimental data.

Multimodal Interfaces of Human–Computer Interaction

An analytical review of state-of-the-art and future intelligent interfaces of human–computer interaction is presented; stages of their evolution are considered from command text to graphic and then to intelligent uni- and multimodal interfaces, based on the transfer of acoustic, visual, textual, and neural information. The principles of organization and the main characteristics and types of multimodal user interfaces, which employ concurrently several tools for automatic processing (recognition and synthesis) of userinputted heterogeneous information, are detailed. The combination of computers with speech and multimodal interfaces, designed for user-friendly information input/output, creates universal information–communicative technologies, man coming to the fore in the interaction between man and computer. Russian and foreign developments in this field are analyzed briefly.

Predictability in Deterministic Dynamical Systems with Application to Weather Forecasting and Climate Modelling

Climate system consisting of the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, land and biota is considered as a complex adaptive dynamical system along with its essential physical properties. Since climate system is a nonlinear dissipative dynamical system that possesses a global attractor and its dynamics on the attractor are chaotic, the prediction of weather and climate change has a finite time horizon. There are two kinds of predictability of climate system: one is generated by uncertainties in the initial conditions (predictability of the first kind) and another is produced by uncertainties in parameters that describe the external forcing (predictability of the second kind). Using the concept of the ‘perfect’ climate model, two kinds of predictability are considered from the standpoint of the mathematical theory of climate.

Variational Maximum Likelihood Method and Its Application to Aerospace Navigation

Abstract Variational approach to statistical evaluation of a maximum likelihood state in a nonlinear dynamic system is proposed. Mathematical justification of the approach and comparison with the direct methods showed its advantages concerning the obtained estimates, accuracy, and computational efficiency. Numerical examples of autonomous orbit determination according to navigational data are considered.

Management Risks Integrated Modelling with Regards to Complex Organizational and Technical Systems

Abstract Different approaches of determination and formalization for uncertainty and risk factors are studied. Concept of risk integrated modelling and corresponding structure of choice are described. This concept is based on mathematical structuring and functorcategory description. Proposed methodology and techniques were implemented in the area of active mobile objects automatic control system.