Rafaela Hillerbrand

Probing the improbable: methodological challenges for risks with low probabilities and high stakes

Some risks have extremely high stakes. For example, a worldwide pandemic or asteroid impact could potentially kill more than a billion people. Comfortingly, scientific calcultions often put very low probabilities on the occurrence of such catastrophes. In this paper, we argue that there are important new methodological problems which arise when assessing global catastrophic risks and we focus on a problem regarding probability estimation. When an expert provides a calculation of the probability of an outcome, they are really providing the probability of the outcome occurring, given that their argument is watertight. However, their argument may fail for a number of reasons, such as a flaw in the underlying theory, a flaw in the modelling of the problem or a mistake in the calculations. If the probability estimate given by an argument is dwarfed by the chance that the argument itself is flawed, then the estimate is suspect. We develop this idea formally, explaining how it differs from the related distinction between model and parameter uncertainty. Using the risk estimates from the Large Hadron Collider as a test case, we show how serious the problem can be when it comes to catastrophic risks and how best to address it.

Stochastic suspensions of heavy particles

Turbulent suspensions of heavy particles in incompressible flows have gained much attention in recent years. A large amount of work focused on the impact that the inertia and the dissipative dynamics of the particles have on their dynamic and statistical properties. Substantial progress followed from the study of suspensions in model flows which, although much simpler, reproduce most of the important mechanisms observed in real turbulence. This paper presents recent developments made on the relative motion of a pair of particles suspended in time-uncorrelated and spatially self-similar Gaussian flows. This review is complemented by new results. By introducing a time-dependent Stokes number, it is demonstrated that inertial particle relative dispersion recovers asymptotically Richardson’s diffusion associated to simple tracers. A perturbative (homogeneization) technique is used in the small-Stokes-number asymptotics and leads to interpreting first-order corrections to tracer dynamics in terms of an effective drift. This expansion implies that the correlation dimension deficit behaves linearly as a function of the Stokes number. The validity and the accuracy of this prediction is confirmed by numerical simulations.

Energy research within the UNFCCC : a proposal to guard against ongoing climate-deadlock

We propose that an international ‘Low-Emissions Technology Commitment’ should be incorporated into the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiation process in order to promote innovation that will enable deep decarbonization. The goal is to accelerate research, development, and demonstration of safe, scalable, and affordable low-emissions energy technologies. Such a commitment should be based on three elements. First, it should operate within existing UNFCCC negotiations so as to encourage developed states to offer directed funding for energy research as part of their national contributions. Second, pledges should be binding, verifiable, and coordinated within an international energy-research plan. Third, expert scientific networks and participating governments should collaborate to design a coordinated global research and technology-demonstration strategy and oversee national research efforts. To this end an Intergovernmental Panel on Low-Emissions Technology Research might be established. This proposal offers some insurance against the risk that the political impasse in international negotiations cannot be overcome. The higher costs associated with low-emissions alternatives to fossil fuels currently creates significant economic and political resistance to their widespread adoption. To breach this impasse, a mechanism supporting accelerated energy research is needed that seeks to reduce future abatement costs, share experience and ‘learning-by-doing’ in first-of-a-kind demonstrations, and thus facilitate future widespread deployments. These actions will also assist in addressing inequalities in energy access. Policy relevance Over the past decade, global fossil-fuel use and associated carbon emissions have risen steadily, despite the majority of nations agreeing, in principle, to work to limit global warming to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial conditions (IPCC, 2014). Accelerated research, development, and demonstration of low-emissions technologies will be required for successful and economically efficient decarbonization of the global economy, but how can the current deadlock be broken? The UNFCCC does not contain adequate mechanisms to promote increased investment in research, so climate-governance institutions are not capturing the gains that could be achieved through a globally coordinated approach. Here, we outline reform proposals that would enhance both the economic effectiveness of global abatement efforts and the political feasibility of accelerated innovation.

Essentials of risk theory

Risk has become one of the main topics in fields as diverse as engineering, medicine and economics, and it is also studied by social scientists, psychologists and legal scholars. This Springer Essentials version offers an overview of the in-depth handbook and highlights some of the main points covered in the Handbook of Risk Theory. The topic of risk also leads to more fundamental questions such as: What is risk? What can decision theory contribute to the analysis of risk? What does the human perception of risk mean for society? How should we judge whether a risk is morally acceptable or not? Over the last couple of decades questions like these have attracted interest from philosophers and other scholars into risk theory. This brief offers the essentials of the handbook provides for an overview into key topics in a major new field of research and addresses a wide range of topics, ranging from decision theory, risk perception to ethics and social implications of risk. It aims to promote communication and information among all those who are interested in theoretical issues concerning risk and uncertainty. The Essentials of Risk Theory brings together internationally leading philosophers and scholars from other disciplines who work on risk theory. The contributions are accessibly written and highly relevant to issues that are studied by risk scholars. The Essentials of Risk Theory will be a helpful starting point for all risk scholars who are interested in broadening and deepening their current perspectives.

Nuclear Power is Neither Right Nor Wrong: The Case for a Tertium Datur in the Ethics of Technology

The debate over the civilian use of nuclear power is highly polarised. We argue that a reasonable response to this deep disagreement is to maintain that advocates of both camps should modify their positions. According to the analysis we propose, nuclear power is neither entirely right nor entirely wrong, but rather right and wrong to some degree. We are aware that this non-binary analysis of nuclear power is controversial from a theoretical point of view. Utilitarians, Kantians, and other moral theorists make sharp, binary distinctions between right and wrong acts. However, an important argument speaking in favour of our non-binary analysis is that it better reflects our considered intuitions about the ethical trade-offs we face in discussions of nuclear power. The aim of this article is to make this argument sharp by explaining how it can be rendered compatible with, and supported by, the Capability Approach, which is quickly becoming one of the most influential frameworks for thinking about human development.

Unwissenschaftlich weil unsicher? Unsicher weil wissenschaftlich!

Die Klimawissenschaften entwickelten – u.a. aufgrund der Komplexitat des Klimasystems und den damit einhergehenden Schwierigkeiten bei dessen Modellierung – einen sehr differenzierten Umgang mit Unsicherheiten, der fur viele andere Wissenschaften richtungsweisend sein kann. Dieser Beitrag wendet sich der Art und Entstehung von Unsicherheiten zu, mit denen sich derzeit die Klimatologie und angrenzende Wissenschaften bei der Modellierung der Auswirkungen menschenverursachter Treibhausgasemissionen auf das Klima der Zukunft konfrontiert sehen. Abschatzungen fur grose Zeitskalen in globalem Masstab werden dabei von regionalen Modellierungen unterschieden. Oftmals wird die Unsicherheit der Modellierung als Argument fur politische Untatigkeit herangefuhrt. Obgleich allerdings die Vielfalt an Unsicherheiten in der Modellierung den politischen Entscheidungsprozess vor grose Herausforderungen stellt, zeigen wir in diesem Artikel, dass fur die anstehenden Entscheidungen in der bevorstehenden Energiewende die relevanten Informationen bereits vorliegen und politische Untatigkeit keinesfalls mit Rekurs auf Unsicherheit bei der Klimamodellierung begrundet werden kann.

Towards a Third ‘Practice Turn’: An Inclusive and Empirically Informed Perspective on Risk

In this chapter we identify three practice turns in the social and philosophical study of technology that we also relate to risk analysis. The first practice turn singled out technology as a topic meriting serious investigation as a social phenomenon, the second turn steered the field towards the consideration of philosophical problems directly relating to what technology is and what engineers do. The third practice turn explicitly aims at changing the field’s practice by close collaboration with the engineers. We argue that given the entanglement of evaluative and descriptive aspects of risk, it is important to develop approaches geared at this third turn, which is only now starting to take place. We propose that phronesis can play an important role in making context-sensitive assessments of evaluative aspects of risks, and that it can be assisted by emotions and art, as sources of moral reflection.

Explanation Via Micro-reduction: On the Role of Scale Separation for Quantitative Modelling

Microphysicalism seems the undisputed paradigm not only in solid-state physics and condensed matter physics, but also within many other branches of science that use computer simulations: The reduced description on the micro level seems epistemically favorable. This chapter investigates whether this view can be defended even in those cases where an ontological reduction is not under dispute. It will be argued that only when the mathematical models exhibit scale separation, is the reduced description on the level of the constituents a fruitful approach.

Panel - Ethics in modern universities of technology: Challenges of the 21 st century

The challenges of the 21st century will fully reflect on universities of technology. The world population is growing while we pursue higher levels of global well-being. The increasing energy demands and the resulting problems of climate change will be only two of the many major challenges humanity is facing in this century. Indeed, universities of technologies have an essential role to play in meeting these challenges by generating scientific knowledge, achieving technological breakthroughs and educating scientists and engineers to think and work for the public good. A forthcoming Special Issue of Science and Engineering Ethics will address some of the ethical issues that arise for institutions of higher education in the field of engineering and applied science. Several contributors to this Special Issue are invited to discuss two main issues namely: academic industry collaborations; and teaching engineering ethics.

Introduction to Risk Theory

Risk is an important topic in contemporary society. People are confronted with risks from financial markets, nuclear power plants, natural disasters and privacy leaks in ICT systems, to mention just a few of a sheer endless list of areas in which uncertainty and risk of harm play an important role. It is in that sense not surprising that risk is studied in fields as diverse as mathematics and natural sciences but also psychology, economics, sociology, cultural studies, and philosophy. The topic of risk gives rise to concrete problems that require empirical investigations, but these empirical investigations need to be structured by theoretical frameworks. This Book presents essential topics in risk theory. It is based on a longer book, the Handbook of Risk Theory (Springer, 2012). The Handbook of Risk Theory offers an view of different approaches to risk theory, ranging from general issues in risk theory to risk in practice, from mathematical approaches in decision theory to empirical research of risk perception, to theories of risk ethics and to frameworks on how to arrange society in order to deal appropriately with risk.