Raghava S. Velagaleti

Long-Term Trends in the Incidence of Heart Failure After Myocardial Infarction

Background— Although mortality after myocardial infarction (MI) has declined in the United States in recent decades, there have been few community-based investigations of the long-term trends in the incidence of heart failure after MI, and their results appear to be conflicting. Methods and Results— We evaluated 676 Framingham Heart Study participants between 45 and 85 years of age (mean age 67 years, 34% women) who developed a first MI between 1970 and 1999. We assessed the incidence rates of heart failure and of death without heart failure in each of 3 decades (1970 to 1979, 1980 to 1989, and 1990 to 1999). We estimated the multivariable-adjusted risk of events in the latter 2 decades, with the period 1970 to 1979 serving as the referent. The 30-day incidence of heart failure after MI rose from 10% in 1970 to 1979 to 23.1% in 1990 to 1999 (P for trend 0.003), whereas 30-day mortality after MI declined from 12.2% (1970 to 1979) to 4.1% (1990 to 1999). The 5-year incidence of heart failure after MI rose from 27.6% in 1970 to 1979 to 31.9% in 1990 to 1999 (P for trend 0.02), whereas 5-year mortality after MI declined from 41.1% (1970 to 1979) to 17.3% (1990 to 1999). In multivariable analyses, compared with the period 1970 to 1979, we observed higher 30-day (risk ratio 2.05, 95% confidence interval 1.25 to 3.36) and 5-year (risk ratio 1.74, 95% confidence interval 1.07 to 2.84) risks of heart failure in the decade 1990 to 1999. These trends were accompanied by lower 30-day (risk ratio 0.21, 95% confidence interval 0.09 to 0.47) and 5-year (risk ratio 0.31, 95% confidence interval 0.18 to 0.54) mortality rates in 1990 to 1999. Conclusions— In the present community-based sample, we observed an increase in the incidence of heart failure in recent decades that paralleled the decrease in mortality after MI.

Multimarker Approach for the Prediction of Heart Failure Incidence in the Community

Background— Several biological pathways are activated in ventricular remodeling and in overt heart failure (HF). There are no data, however, on the incremental utility of a parsimonious set of biomarkers (reflecting pathways implicated in HF) for predicting HF risk in the community. Methods and Results— We related a multibiomarker panel to the incidence of a first HF event in 2754 Framingham Heart Study participants (mean age, 58 years; 54% women) who were free of HF and underwent routine assays for 6 biomarkers (C-reactive protein, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, homocysteine, aldosterone-to-renin ratio, B-type natriuretic peptide, and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio). We estimated model c statistic, calibration, and net reclassification improvement to assess the incremental predictive usefulness of biomarkers. We also related biomarkers to the incidence of nonischemic HF in participants without prevalent coronary heart disease. On follow-up (mean, 9.4 years), 95 first HF events occurred (54 in men). In multivariable-adjusted models, the biomarker panel was significantly related to HF risk (P=0.00005). On backward elimination, B-type natriuretic peptide and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio emerged as key biomarkers predicting HF risk; hazards ratios per 1-SD increment in log marker were 1.52 (95% confidence interval, 1.24 to 1.87) and 1.35 (95% confidence interval, 1.11 to 1.66), respectively. B-type natriuretic peptide and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio significantly improved the model c statistic from 0.84 (95% confidence interval, 0.80 to 0.88) in standard models to 0.86 (95% confidence interval, 0.83 to 0.90), enhanced risk reclassification (net reclassification improvement=0.13; P=0.002), and were independently associated with nonischemic HF risk. Conclusion— Using a multimarker strategy, we identified B-type natriuretic peptide and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio as key risk factors for new-onset HF with incremental predictive utility over standard risk factors.

Relations of Lipid Concentrations to Heart Failure Incidence The Framingham Heart Study

Background— The relations of lipid concentrations to heart failure (HF) risk have not been elucidated comprehensively. Methods and Results— In 6860 Framingham Heart Study participants (mean age, 44 years; 54% women) free of baseline coronary heart disease, we related high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and non–HDL-C to HF incidence during long-term follow-up, adjusting for clinical covariates and myocardial infarction at baseline and updating these at follow-up examinations. We evaluated dyslipidemia-specific population burden of HF by calculating population attributable risks. During follow-up (mean of 26 years), 680 participants (49% women) developed HF. Unadjusted HF incidence in the low (<160 mg/dL) versus high (≥190 mg/dL) non–HDL-C groups was 7.9% and 13.8%, respectively, whereas incidence in the high (≥55 [men], ≥65 [women] mg/dL) versus low (<40 [men], <50 [women] mg/dL) HDL-C groups was 6.1% and 12.8%, respectively. In multivariable models, baseline non–HDL-C and HDL-C, modeled as continuous measures, carried HF hazards (confidence intervals) of 1.19 (1.11 to 1.27) and 0.82 (0.75 to 0.90), respectively, per SD increment. In models updating lipid concentrations every 8 years, the corresponding hazards (confidence intervals) were 1.23 (1.16 to 1.31) and 0.77 (0.70 to 0.85). Participants with high baseline non–HDL-C and those with low HDL-C experienced a 29% and 40% higher HF risk, respectively, compared with those in the desirable categories; the population attributable risks for high non–HDL-C and low HDL-C were 7.5% and 15%, respectively. Hazards associated with non–HDL-C and HDL-C remained statistically significant after additional adjustment for interim myocardial infarction. Conclusions— Dyslipidemia carries HF risk independent of its association with myocardial infarction, suggesting that lipid modification may be a means for reducing HF risk.

Relations of Insulin Resistance and Glycemic Abnormalities to Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Measures of Cardiac Structure and Function: the Framingham Heart Study

Background—Data regarding the relationships of diabetes, insulin resistance, and subclinical hyperinsulinemia/hyperglycemia with cardiac structure and function are conflicting. We sought to apply volumetric cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) in a free-living cohort to potentially clarify these associations. Methods and Results—A total of 1603 Framingham Heart Study Offspring participants (age, 64±9 years; 55% women) underwent CMR to determine left ventricular mass (LVM), LVM to end-diastolic volume ratio (LVM/LVEDV), relative wall thickness (RWT), ejection fraction, cardiac output, and left atrial size. Data regarding insulin resistance (homeostasis model, HOMA-IR) and glycemia categories (normal, impaired insulinemia or glycemia, prediabetes, and diabetes) were determined. In a subgroup (253 men, 290 women) that underwent oral glucose tolerance testing, we related 2-hour insulin and glucose with CMR measures. In both men and women, all age-adjusted CMR measures increased across HOMA-IR quartiles, but multivariable-adjusted trends were significant only for LVM/ht2.7 and LVM/LVEDV. LVM/LVEDV and RWT were higher in participants with prediabetes and diabetes (in both sexes) in age-adjusted models, but these associations remained significant after multivariable adjustment only in men. LVM/LVEDV was significantly associated with 2-hour insulin in men only, and RWT was significantly associated with 2-hour glucose in women only. In multivariable stepwise selection analyses, the inclusion of body mass index led to a loss in statistical significance. Conclusions—Although insulin and glucose indices are associated with abnormalities in cardiac structure, insulin resistance and worsening glycemia are consistently and independently associated with LVM/LVEDV. These data implicate hyperglycemia and insulin resistance in concentric LV remodeling.

Relations of Biomarkers Representing Distinct Biological Pathways to Left Ventricular Geometry

Background— Several biological pathways are activated concomitantly during left ventricular (LV) remodeling. However, the relative contribution of circulating biomarkers representing these distinct pathways to LV geometry is unclear. Methods and Results— We evaluated 2119 Framingham Offspring Study participants (mean age, 57 years; 57% women) who underwent measurements of biomarkers of inflammation (C-reactive protein), hemostasis (fibrinogen and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1), neurohormonal activation (B-type natriuretic peptide), and renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (aldosterone and renin modeled as a ratio [ARR]) and echocardiography at a routine examination. LV geometry was defined on the basis of sex-specific distributions of LV mass (LVM) and relative wall thickness (RWT): normal (LVM and RWT <80th percentile), concentric remodeling (LVM <80th percentile but RWT ≥80th percentile), eccentric hypertrophy (LVM ≥80th percentile but RWT <80th percentile), and concentric hypertrophy (LVM and RWT ≥80th percentile). We related the biomarker panel to LV geometry using polytomous logistic regression adjusting for clinical covariates and used backwards elimination to identify a parsimonious set of biomarkers associated with LV geometry. Modeled individually, C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, and ARR were related to LV geometry (P<0.01). In multivariable analyses, the biomarker panel was significantly related to altered LV geometry (P<0.0001). On backwards elimination, logARR alone was significantly and positively associated with eccentric (odds ratio per SD increment, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 1.37) and concentric LV hypertrophy (odds ratio per SD increment, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.06 to 1.58). Conclusions— Our cross-sectional observations on a large community-based sample identified ARR as a key correlate of concentric and eccentric LV hypertrophy, consistent with a major role for the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system in LV remodeling.

Left Ventricular Hypertrophy Patterns and Incidence of Heart Failure With Preserved Versus Reduced Ejection Fraction

Higher left ventricular (LV) mass, wall thickness, and internal dimension are associated with increased heart failure (HF) risk. Whether different LV hypertrophy patterns vary with respect to rates and types of HF incidence is unclear. In this study, 4,768 Framingham Heart Study participants (mean age 50 years, 56% women) were classified into 4 mutually exclusive LV hypertrophy pattern groups (normal, concentric remodeling, concentric hypertrophy, and eccentric hypertrophy) using American Society of Echocardiography-recommended thresholds of echocardiographic LV mass indexed to body surface area and relative wall thickness, and these groups were related to HF incidence. Whether risk for HF types (HF with reduced ejection fraction [<45%] vs preserved ejection fraction [≥45%]) varied by hypertrophy pattern was then evaluated. On follow-up (mean 21 years), 458 participants (9.6%, 250 women) developed new-onset HF. The age- and gender-adjusted 20-year HF incidence increased from 6.96% in the normal left ventricle group to 8.67%, 13.38%, and 15.27% in the concentric remodeling, concentric hypertrophy, and eccentric hypertrophy groups, respectively. After adjustment for co-morbidities and incident myocardial infarction, LV hypertrophy patterns were associated with higher HF incidence relative to the normal left ventricle group (p = 0.0002); eccentric hypertrophy carried the greatest risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.89, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.41 to 2.54), followed by concentric hypertrophy (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.87). Participants with eccentric hypertrophy had a higher propensity for HF with reduced ejection fraction (HR 2.23, 95% CI 1.48 to 3.37), whereas those with concentric hypertrophy were more prone to HF with preserved ejection fraction (HR 1.66, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.51). In conclusion, in this large community-based sample, HF risk varied by LV hypertrophy pattern, with eccentric and concentric hypertrophy predisposing to HF with reduced and preserved ejection fraction, respectively.

Relations of Biomarkers of Extracellular Matrix Remodeling to Incident Cardiovascular Events and Mortality

Objective—To evaluate if biomarkers reflecting left ventricular/vascular extracellular matrix remodeling are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and death in the community. Methods and Results—In 922 Framingham Study participants (mean age, 58 years; 56% women), we related circulating concentrations of matrix metalloproteinase-9 (binary variable: detectable versus undetectable), log of tissue inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinase-1, and log of procollagen type III aminoterminal peptide (PIIINP) to incident CVD and death. On follow-up (mean, 9.9 years), 51 deaths and 81 CVD events occurred. Each SD increment of log of tissue inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinase-1 and log-PIIINP was associated with multivariable-adjusted hazards ratios of 1.72 (95% CI, 1.30 to 2.27) and 1.47 (95% CI, 1.11 to 1.96), respectively, for mortality risk. Log-PIIINP concentrations were also associated with CVD risk (hazard ratio [95% CI] per SD, 1.35 [1.05 to 1.74]). Death and CVD incidence rates were 2-fold higher in participants with both biomarkers higher than the median (corresponding hazard ratio [95% CI], 2.78 [1.43 to 5.40] and 1.77 [1.04 to 3.03], respectively) compared with those with either or both less than the median. The inclusion of both biomarkers improved the C-statistic (for predicting mortality) from 0.78 to 0.82 (P=0.03). Matrix metalloproteinase-9 was unrelated to either outcome. Conclusion—Higher circulating tissue inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinase-1 and PIIINP concentrations are associated with mortality, and higher PIIINP is associated with incident CVD, in the community.

Cross-sectional relations of lipid concentrations to left ventricular structural attributes.

Although previous investigations reported on the associations of lipid concentrations with left ventricular remodeling in specific subpopulations, few data exist on these associations in a community-based sample of subjects without cardiovascular disease. In this study, 3,554 Framingham Heart Study participants (mean age 47 years, 53% women) without preexisting clinical cardiovascular disease were examined, and no meaningful associations of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol or non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol with echocardiographic indexes of left ventricular structure were observed. In conclusion, these data do not support an independent association between lipid concentrations and left ventricular structure.

DYSLIPIDEMIA TREATMENT AND HEART FAILURE RISK

Dyslipidemia is associated with increased heart failure (HF) risk. Lipid-modifying therapy is prescribed for primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD). Whether treatment-induced improvement in lipid profile in this setting is also associated with decreased HF risk is unclear. In 18,402 CHD

Relations of Insulin Resistance and Glycemic Abnormalities to Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Measures of Cardiac Structure and FunctionCLINICAL PERSPECTIVE

Background—Data regarding the relationships of diabetes, insulin resistance, and subclinical hyperinsulinemia/hyperglycemia with cardiac structure and function are conflicting. We sought to apply volumetric cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) in a free-living cohort to potentially clarify these associations. Methods and Results—A total of 1603 Framingham Heart Study Offspring participants (age, 64±9 years; 55% women) underwent CMR to determine left ventricular mass (LVM), LVM to end-diastolic volume ratio (LVM/LVEDV), relative wall thickness (RWT), ejection fraction, cardiac output, and left atrial size. Data regarding insulin resistance (homeostasis model, HOMA-IR) and glycemia categories (normal, impaired insulinemia or glycemia, prediabetes, and diabetes) were determined. In a subgroup (253 men, 290 women) that underwent oral glucose tolerance testing, we related 2-hour insulin and glucose with CMR measures. In both men and women, all age-adjusted CMR measures increased across HOMA-IR quartiles, but multivariable-adjusted trends were significant only for LVM/ht2.7 and LVM/LVEDV. LVM/LVEDV and RWT were higher in participants with prediabetes and diabetes (in both sexes) in age-adjusted models, but these associations remained significant after multivariable adjustment only in men. LVM/LVEDV was significantly associated with 2-hour insulin in men only, and RWT was significantly associated with 2-hour glucose in women only. In multivariable stepwise selection analyses, the inclusion of body mass index led to a loss in statistical significance. Conclusions—Although insulin and glucose indices are associated with abnormalities in cardiac structure, insulin resistance and worsening glycemia are consistently and independently associated with LVM/LVEDV. These data implicate hyperglycemia and insulin resistance in concentric LV remodeling.