Ralph C. Bryant

The Impact of Aging on Financial Markets and the Economy: A Survey

All major industrial countries will experience significant population aging over the next several decades. In both academic circles and the business press it is widely believed that population aging will have important effects on financial markets because of its expected impact on saving rates and the demand for investment funds. This paper reviews the literature on the macroeconomic and asset market effects of population aging, focusing on four related issues: (a) The impact of population age structure on aggregate household saving; (b) The effect of population aging on investment demand; (c) Evidence on the influence of population age structure on financial market asset prices and returns; and (d) Effects of globalization on our interpretation of the impact of demographic change.

Global macroeconomics : policy conflict and cooperation

CEPR Information - IEA Information - List of Figures - List of Tables - Preface - List of Conference Participants - Introduction R.Bryant & R.Portes - SESSION I: APPROACHES TO THE ANALYSIS OF POLICY COORDINATION - The Complexity of Strategies and the Resolution of Conflict: An Introduction A.Rubinstein - Discussion J.Roberts - Alternative Approaches to Dynamic Game C.Fershtman - Discussion L.Mirman - Overview of Session 1 W.Buiter - SESSION II: THE GAINS FROM POLICY COOPERATION - Cooperative and Non-cooperative Rules for Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an Empire - Two-bio Model D.Currie & P.Levine - Discussion P.Masson - International Policy Cooperation and Model Uncertainty G.Holtman & A.Hughes Hallett - Discussion G.Oudiz - Overview of Session II J.Frenkel - SESSION III: THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM - Exchange Rates, Capital Controls and the EMS D.Begg & C.Wyplosz - Discussion W.Branson - Models of the EMS: Is Europe a Greater Deutschmark Area? F.Giavazzi & A.Giovannini - Discussion R.Marston - Overview of Session III M.Miller - SESSION IV: NORTH-SOUTH INTERDEPENDENCE - External and Domestic Debt Constraints of LDCs: A Theory with Numerical Application to the Brazil and Mexico D.Cohen - Discussion J.Eaton - The Macroeconomics of North-South Interaction R.Kanbur & S.van Wijnbergen - Discussion D.Vines - Overview of Session IV R.Dornbusch - Index

Inflation in North America

The past quarter century has seen inflation in North America accelerate and recede, and has seen our stock of knowledge about inflation steadily accumulate.1 The combination of these two events has transformed our attitudes toward inflation and led us to the point at which we now dare to plan for and talk of achieving zero inflation. A central purpose of this chapter is to evaluate the possibility of achieving and maintaining zero inflation in the United States and Canada in the decade ahead. It begins by reviewing the inflation record of the two countries, looking both at their separate performances and their inflation differential. This review highlights the questions that must be answered if zero inflation is to be a possibility.

Incorporating demographic change in multi-country macroeconomic models: some preliminary results*

The Economics of an Ageing Population studies the effects of demographic transition on the economies of industrialised countries. The authors demonstrate that an ageing population does not necessarily lead to a reduction in growth, providing that the working population are more productive and save a greater percentage of their income. They look in detail at the examples of Italy and Japan, two countries which have the fastest ageing populations in Europe and the world respectively.

Demographic Interactions between North and South and the Implications for North-South Capital Flows

This paper focuses on the macroeconomic consequences of demographic differences between lower- income, less developed countries (the “South”) and higher-income developed countries (the “North”). The analysis emphasizes the likely implications in the two regions for aggregate saving- investment imbalances, exchange rates, and the resulting net capital flows between North and South. An optimistic view of asymmetric demographic transitions among Southern and Northern economies suggests that the North can run a current-account surplus sizable in relation to the Northern economy, thereby transferring large net amounts of financial capital to the South. This paper argues that the optimistic view is a plausible summary of demographic influences on North-South capital flows in the historical period between 1950 and the mid-1970s. For historical decades after the 1970s and for the initial decades of the 21st century, however, the analysis suggests instead that asymmetric demography between the South and the North operates to reduce rather than increase the net flow of Northern savings to the South as a proportion of the Southern and Northern economies. This conclusion holds broadly for a range of alternative assumptions about the speed of the South’s demographic transition. It also appears to hold regardless of whether Southern productivity growth is vigorous or sluggish, and regardless of whether cross-border goods substitutability is moderate or strong. Substantial research remains to be done to refine the paper’s analytical framework and to test the robustness of this conclusion.

The Coordination of National Stabilization Policies: Evolution of National Policies and International Institutions

Nations experiencing a progressive integration of their economies confront a central issue: when should their governments cooperate in making decisions about their macroeconomic stabilization policies and, if they do so, how ambitious should that cooperation be?1

Comment on André Icard: Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates: The French Experience

My comment on Mr. Icard’s paper will address broad issues about the conduct of French monetary policy and about exchange rate stability. I will sharply question several of the main themes emphasized in the paper.