Ramesh Ghimire

Floods and armed conflict

We estimate the impact of large, catastrophic floods on internal armed conflict using global data on large floods between 1985 and 2009. The results suggest that while large floods did not ignite new conflict, they fueled existing armed conflicts. Floods and armed conflict are endogenously determined, and we show that empirically addressing this endogeneity is important. The estimated effects of floods on conflict prevalence are substantially larger in specifications that control for the endogeneity of floods, suggesting that treating natural disasters as exogenous phenomena may underestimate their impacts on sociopolitical outcomes.

Results From the 2014 National Wilderness Manager Survey

A national survey of managers was developed to support interagency wilderness strategic planning. The focus was on major challenges, perceived needs for science and training, and accomplishments of 1995 Strategic Plan objectives. The survey was administered to managers at the four federal agencies with wilderness management responsibilities: the Bureau of Land Management, National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and U.S. Forest Service. In spring 2014, responses were received from 368 managers. The highest ranking threat perceived was “lack of political and financial support for wilderness protection and management,” followed by “invasive species,” “disconnected urban audiences” and “adjacent land use and management.” The greatest need for science-based information was “public attitudes toward intervention to adapt to climate change influences” and “public attitudes toward ecological restoration activities.” The majority of managers commonly perceived no or only slight accomplishment of previous strategic plan objectives.