Randy J. McCarthy

Justify your alpha

In response to recommendations to redefine statistical significance to P ≤ 0.005, we propose that researchers should transparently report and justify all choices they make when designing a study, including the alpha level.

Child Maltreatment Among U.S. Air Force Parents Deployed in Support of Operation Iraqi Freedom/Operation Enduring Freedom

This study examined child maltreatment perpetration among 99,697 active-duty U.S. Air Force parents who completed a combat deployment. Using the deploying parent as the unit of analysis, we analyzed whether child maltreatment rates increased postdeployement relative to predeployment. These analyses extend previous research that used aggregate data and extend our previous work that used data from the same period but used the victim as the unit of analysis and included only deploying parents who engaged in child maltreatment. In this study, 2% (n = 1,746) of deploying parents perpetrated child maltreatment during the study period. Although no overall differences were found in child maltreatment rates postdeployment compared to predeployment, several maltreatment-related characteristics qualified this finding. Rates for emotional abuse and mild maltreatment were lower following deployment, whereas child maltreatment rates for severe maltreatment were higher following deployment. The finding that rates of severe child maltreatment, including incidents involving alcohol use, were higher postdeployment suggests a need for additional support services for parents following their return from combat deployment, with a focus on returning parents who have an alcohol use problem.

Inferences Are For Doing The Impact of Approach and Avoidance States on the Generation of Spontaneous Trait Inferences

Spontaneous trait inferences (STIs) are ubiquitous and occur when perceivers spontaneously infer actor traits from actor behaviors. Previous research has elucidated the processes underlying STIs, but little work has focused on the functions of STIs. This article proposes that these unintentional early inferences serve a general approach or avoidance function. Two studies are reported in which external approach and avoidance motivations elicited via flexion–extension (Study 1) or physical warmth (Study 2) affect the encoding of trait-implying behavioral statements in a valence-matching manner. The results suggest that somatic states can act as cues that affect unintentional social information processing independently of the actual experience of the psychological states associated with those somatic states. Implications for a functional perspective on STIs are discussed.

Child physical abuse risk moderates spontaneously inferred traits from ambiguous child behaviors

The present study examined whether parents at high-risk for child physical abuse (CPA) differed from low-risk parents in their tendency to infer positive traits and negative traits from childrens behaviors. The final sample consisted of 58 (25 low CPA risk and 33 high CPA risk) parents. Parents completed a false-recognition task, which involved viewing behavior descriptions paired with child photographs. Half of the behavior descriptions vaguely/strongly implied a trait and half of the implied traits were positive/negative. The contributions of automatic processes and controlled processes to task performance were examined using process dissociation procedures. Low CPA risk parents were significantly less likely to indicate negative traits were present in behavioral descriptions of children when negative traits were vaguely (compared to strongly) implied. In contrast, high CPA risk parents were equally likely to indicate negative traits were present regardless of whether the traits were vaguely or strongly implied. For low (but not high) CPA risk parents, automatic processes contributed significantly less to task performance when negative traits were vaguely implied compared to when the same traits were strongly implied. Given that parenting involves negotiating a seemingly endless series of ambiguous behaviors as children grow and develop, the capacity to refrain from automatically attributing negative traits to children when they exhibit vaguely negative behaviors may serve an important function in reducing risk of aggressive parenting behavior.

Characteristics Associated With Incidents of Family Maltreatment Among United States Air Force Families

From 2002 until 2007, the United States Air Force (USAF) revised the process of determining whether incidents of suspected family maltreatment met the criteria for maltreatment. In this study, all reported child maltreatment and partner abuse incidents in the USAF from January 2008 to July 2011 were examined to determine the extent to which characteristics of victims, offenders, and incidents affected whether incidents were determined to have met criteria for maltreatment. For both child maltreatment and partner abuse, alleged incidents in which offenders used substances and more severe incidents were more likely to have met maltreatment criteria than alleged incidents that did not involve offender substance use and less severe incidents. However, characteristics of the persons involved (e.g., age, gender, military status) were generally unassociated with an incident meeting criteria. Consistent with the goals of the criteria revisions, these results suggest that the current USAF criteria are associated with incident characteristics and not with demographic characteristics of the persons involved in the incident.

Spouse abuse among United States Air Force personnel who deployed in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom/Operation Enduring Freedom.

The authors examined spouse abuse perpetration among all married U.S. Air Force personnel who deployed in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom/Operation Enduring Freedom. Using Poisson and conditional Poisson regression, they compared rates of spouse abuse perpetration predeployment and postdeployment in the population of married U.S. Air Force personnel who had a combat-related deployment between October 1, 2001 and October 31, 2008 (N = 156,296). Just over 2% (n = 3,524) of deployers perpetrated at least one substantiated incident of spouse physical or emotional abuse within the 308,197,653 days at risk for abuse during the study period. Male deployers perpetrated spouse abuse at approximately twice the rate of female deployers. Regarding changes in rates of spouse abuse perpetration postdeployment versus predeployment among all deployers, the authors found no differences overall; however, several deployer and incident-related characteristics moderated this effect. Rates of emotional abuse, mild abuse, and abuse not involving alcohol were significantly lower postdeployment, whereas rates of moderate/severe abuse and abuse involving alcohol were significantly higher postdeployment. Although the majority of U.S. Air Force deployers did not perpetrate any substantiated incidents of spouse abuse, there was variability in the impact of deployment on spouse abuse rates before versus after deployment. The finding that rates of moderate/severe spouse abuse incidents involving alcohol were higher postdeployment suggests a need for focused prevention/intervention efforts.

What difference does a day make? Examining temporal variations in partner maltreatment.

Routine activities (RA) theory posits that changes in peoples typical daily activities covary with increases or decreases in criminal behaviors, including, but not limited to, partner maltreatment. Using a large clinical database, we examined temporal variations among 24,460 incidents of confirmed partner maltreatment across an 11-year period within the U.S. Air Force (USAF). Specifically, we created regression models that predicted the number of partner maltreatment incidents per day. In addition to several control variables, we coded temporal variables for days of the week, month, year, and several significant days (e.g., holidays, Super Bowl Sunday), which allowed us to examine the independent influence of these variables on partner maltreatment prevalence. While accounting for the influence of all other study variables, we observed significant increases in partner maltreatment for weekend days, New Years Day, Independence Day, and Super Bowl Sunday. Similar results were found for partner maltreatment incidents involving offender alcohol/drug use. Furthermore, the proportion of incidents involving offender alcohol/drug use increased on New Years Day and Independence Day. Consistent with RA theory and data from civilian samples, the current results indicate that certain days are associated with increased incidents of partner maltreatment within the USAF. These findings should be used to inform future preventive efforts.

A Unified Framework to Quantify the Credibility of Scientific Findings

Societies invest in scientific studies to better understand the world and attempt to harness such improved understanding to address pressing societal problems. Published research, however, can be useful for theory or application only if it is credible. In science, a credible finding is one that has repeatedly survived risky falsification attempts. However, state-of-the-art meta-analytic approaches cannot determine the credibility of an effect because they do not account for the extent to which each included study has survived such attempted falsification. To overcome this problem, we outline a unified framework for estimating the credibility of published research by examining four fundamental falsifiability-related dimensions: (a) transparency of the methods and data, (b) reproducibility of the results when the same data-processing and analytic decisions are reapplied, (c) robustness of the results to different data-processing and analytic decisions, and (d) replicability of the effect. This framework includes a standardized workflow in which the degree to which a finding has survived scrutiny is quantified along these four facets of credibility. The framework is demonstrated by applying it to published replications in the psychology literature. Finally, we outline a Web implementation of the framework and conclude by encouraging the community of researchers to contribute to the development and crowdsourcing of this platform.

Identifying high-needs families in the U.S. Air Force New Parent Support Program

The U.S. Air Force (USAF) New Parent Support Program (NPSP) is a voluntary family maltreatment prevention program for expectant parents and parents of young children. NPSP mothers are classified as “low needs” (LN) or “high needs” (HN) based on their Family Needs Screener (FNS) responses and NPSP service providers’ clinical judgment. Using data from 112,478 mothers, we analyzed classifications based on FNS scores, classifications based on NPSP service providers’ clinical judgments, and whether these classifications predicted mothers’ subsequent maltreatment of a child. Overall, 75% of mothers were classified as LN based on their FNS responses. Clinical judgments resulted in overrides for the classifications of 6% of cases and, when overrides occurred, mothers’ classifications were more likely changed from LN to HN than vice versa. Further, both FNS-based HN classifications and clinical overrides from LN to HN predicted subsequent child maltreatment. These data suggest FNS and clinical overrides are useful for predicting child maltreatment within USAF families.

Multiple Behavior Descriptions Affect the Acquisitions of STI and STT

Four studies pursued the idea that spontaneous trait inferences (STIs) involve the formation of both inferential knowledge and associative knowledge while spontaneous trait transferences (STTs) involve only the formation of associative knowledge. These studies varied the type and amount of behavioral information from which perceivers could extract trait information. Experiments 1a and 1b used a modified savings-in-relearning paradigm and demonstrated that repeated presentations of an individual and a behavior description increased the strength of association between the target and implied trait, and this effect did not depend on whether the repeated presentations involved redundant information or new information. In comparison, Experiments 2a and 2b used a trait ratings dependent variable and demonstrated that the effects of repetition were stronger for STI, but not STT, when the added information differed from information that was previously encountered, but not when it was redundant with the previously encountered information.